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          'We know who's up next:' Bills focused on chance at AFC East lead against Patriots

          • Alaina Getzenberg, ESPNDec 20, 2021, 05:00 PM
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              Alaina Getzenberg is a staff writer who covers the Buffalo Bills and the NFL. She joined ESPN in 2021. Alaina was previously a beat reporter for the Charlotte Observer and has also worked for CBS Sports and the Dallas Morning News. She is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley. You can follow her via Twitter @agetzenberg.

          ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Some players still had uniforms on, their faces red from the cold. Just minutes had passed after the Buffalo Bills' 31-14 win over the Carolina Panthers and it felt like the team had already turned the page.

          Winning decisively is something the Bills were supposed to do -- that’s why they were favored by double-digits. Just ahead, Buffalo (8-6) has a shot to decide its own fate when it comes to the AFC East when they travel to visit the New England Patriots (9-5) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS).

          “One down. We know who’s up next,” coach Sean McDermott said in a team video of the postgame locker room. “We know who’s up next. It’s all about us, right? Stay humble.”

          With a win against the Patriots, the Bills would need to win out the rest of the season -- at home against the Atlanta Falcons (6-8) and New York Jets (3-11) -- to secure the AFC East crown, thanks to a better divisional record (Bills at 4-1 vs. Patriots at 3-2). Beating the Patriots would give the Bills the lead in the division for the first time in over a month.

          If the Bills lose, however, the Patriots could clinch the division this weekend. All they would need is a Miami Dolphins (7-7) loss to the New Orleans Saints (7-7) on Monday night, per ESPN Stats & Info. For the Bills, winning the final two games would remain the best way to secure a playoff spot, but a 10-7 record would not guarantee a berth due to the team’s poor conference record (5-6) with a loss to New England.

          Buffalo is looking to win a second straight division crown for the first time since it won four straight from 1988-1991. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Bills have a 82.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 45.7% shot to win the division.

          The team’s highest odds per the FPI are to finish as the third seed (24.5%) or the seventh seed (20.8%). The Colts, Chargers and four AFC North teams will have the biggest impact on Buffalo’s odds.

          “We’ve got to keep it about us,” McDermott said. “And this will be a game, [the Patriots] came in here and beat us two weeks ago. ... So, obviously we have some adjusting to do and we’ve got to have a good week of preparation.”

          Preparation started a bit early this time around. The night before the Bills played the Panthers, McDermott was up watching the Patriots lose to the Indianapolis Colts, live with the rest of the country.

          Quarterback Josh Allen was also up watching the game, but not all of it. A little too far past his bedtime.

          “I think a lot of guys had the game on ... and watched the Colts go up early and kind of forcing them to get one dimensional and throw the ball that way,” Bills defensive tackle Harrison Phillips said. “Have some good film to break down, know what they did against us, so if they want to copycat that again, we’ll try to be more prepared. And then also, we see the advantage of going up early, really that forces their hand.”

          For two decades, the Patriots dominated the division, including winning it 11 straight times until the Bills won last year. The Bills appeared poised to win it again, but the team stumbled in close games this year (0-5) including the loss at home to New England two weeks ago.

          In that game, the Patriots were able to control the flow, finishing with only three passing attempts and holding the Bills to 10 points. But the Colts found a way to stop the Patriots, holding them to 81 yards on the ground and forcing rookie quarterback Mac Jones to throw 45 times. New England is 0-4 when Jones throws the ball 39 or more times.

          The takeaway from the Patriots loss to the Colts is obvious -- force Jones to try and win the game.

          What can the Bills take from the win over the Panthers?

          • The Bills found success by blitzing quarterback Cam Newton on 65% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate of any game this season (No. 1 was the Ravens vs. Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater). Buffalo also sent a defensive back as a pass-rusher on 21 dropbacks, third-most in the NFL. Newton was sacked by two of his former Carolina teammates -- Efe Obada (twice) and Star Lotulelei.

          • Wide receiver Gabriel Davis has had a greater presence in the offense that started in the loss to the Patriots -- that game started a three-game touchdown streak for the receiver. With receiver Emmanuel Sanders dealing with a knee injury, Davis had his highest snap counts of the season by far in the last two games (83% and 90%). That should continue.

          • Getting creative with the offense was a positive, including incorporating rarely-used receiver Isaiah McKenzie more and trusting running back Devin Singletary with a career-high 22 carries, despite the team missing two starting offensive lineman on the COVID-19 list.

          Ultimately, only so much can be taken from wins against struggling teams on their second or third quarterbacks. It’s the big-time games that have been an issue for the Bills.

          The real test is to come with the easiest path to the postseason and a home playoff game on the line.

          “Every game from here on out for us is a playoff game and we’ve got to treat it as such," Allen said.