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          NFL Nation

          Is Marcus Davenport as obvious as Mel Kiper and Todd McShay make it seem?

          Marcus Davenport (93) sacks Baker Mayfield during the Senior Bowl last month. Davenport is a popular predraft pick for the Packers thus far. Glenn Andrews/USA TODAY Sports
          • Rob Demovsky, ESPN Staff WriterFeb 21, 2018, 05:00 PM
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              Rob Demovsky is an NFL reporter at ESPN and covers the Green Bay Packers. He has covered the Packers since 1997 and joined ESPN in 2013. Demovsky is a two-time Wisconsin Sportswriter of the Year as selected by the NSSA. You can follow him on Twitter at @RobDemovsky.
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          GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Three mock drafts and three picks for Marcus Davenport to the Green Bay Packers.

          Can it be as obvious as Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have made it seem so far?

          Much can -- and will -- change between now and when general manager Brian Gutekunst is on the clock at No. 14 -- assuming he stays there -- on the evening of April 26. The combine is still a week away and free agency is nearly a month away but ESPN's two draft analysts make it look like an easy and obvious choice for the first-time GM.

          Kiper's latest mock draft, version 2.0 released on Wednesday, had the Packers taking Davenport. He also had them taking the UT-San Antonio defensive end in his first version last month. McShay doubled down on Davenport, giving him to the Packers in his most recent mock.

          Here's why Davenport could be the clear-cut choice:

          • There's little chance the Packers will find an impact pass-rusher in free agency; those kinds of players don't usually hit the market. Even though Davenport looks like one of the top rushers in the draft, he could slide out of the top-10 because of the expected run on quarterbacks early on. Kiper has four quarterbacks gone in the first 11 picks -- Josh Allen No. 1 overall to the Browns followed by Sam Darnold (No. 5 to the Broncos), Baker Mayfield (No. 6 to the Jets) and Josh Rosen (No. 11 to the Dolphins).

          • With the other 10 picks ahead of the Packers, Kiper has three other offensive players coming off the board -- running back Saquon Barkley to the Giants at No. 2, guard Quenton Nelson (No. 7 to the Buccaneers) and tackle Kolton Miller (No. 12 to the Bengals).

          • The Packers know they're not getting NC State defensive end Bradley Chubb (No. 3 to the Colts), which makes Davenport the next-best pure rusher from the defensive line position.

          The wild card is that this is Gutekunst's first time running a draft and no one really knows how he will operate. With former GM Ted Thompson, the draft -- especially early on -- became easier to predict. He often went with the safe pick and usually favored the defensive side of the ball. Gutekunst's biggest task is to give new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine more playmakers, but no one really knows how he will do that.