MINNEAPOLIS -- The Minnesota Vikings' plan for improving their roster this offseason centers on the continued retooling of the defense. They need pass-rushers, a safety to start opposite Harrison Smith and more cornerbacks. Some of those needs will be sorted out in free agency while the ones the Vikings don't get to in the coming weeks become a high priority during the draft.
But before the Vikings can carry out their defensive to-do list, they need to answer questions on the other side of the ball, beginning with the offensive line.
Minnesota's financial flexibility in free agency hinges on a decision with left tackle Riley Reiff. Will the Vikings attempt to extend him to lower his cap number or will he become a cap casualty?
Once there is a resolution, the Vikings can begin answering other questions, like how they'll upgrade the interior of the offensive line, including who's playing where in 2021, and how much they'll be able to spend on other positions of need in the offseason.
It all starts with Reiff
Reiff, 32, is a key component in determining how active Minnesota can be going after unrestricted free agents. The Vikings are an estimated $3.56 million over the cap with a week until the start of the new league year. Reiff, who has one year remaining on his contract, is set to earn $11.65 million from the Vikings in 2021, $6.5 million of which comes from his base salary and an additional $5 million from a roster bonus that kicks in on March 19.
Lowering Reiff's $13.95 million cap charge to a number that would create the space for the Vikings to improve other areas of the roster would come through a restructure or extension. Reiff is familiar with this process, having taken a $5 million pay cut after the Vikings traded for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue and his one-year. $12 million contract at the end of the preseason.
The Vikings could approach Reiff with another restructure to add years to his contract, allowing them to prorate a large guaranteed amount more effectively. But the lead up to free agency hasn't made the prospect of that any easier for Minnesota.
Two tackles -- Jacksonville's Cam Robinson and Carolina's Taylor Moton -- received a franchise tag that is expected to be $14 million. Washington guard Brandon Scherff was also given a tag expected to be set at $18.03 million.
Moves like that don't help the Vikings' leverage if they propose a Reiff restructure. Left tackles, even above average ones (Reiff was ranked 18th in pass blocking among all tackles with a minimum of 80% of snaps played, per PFF), don't come cheap. If he believes he can make more on the open market, Reiff could decline any re-doing of his contract, be released and hit free agency, leaving the Vikings with a hole at left tackle.
The amount of salary cap space ($11.75 million) created by releasing Reiff is something the Vikings have to weigh against the production they got from him in 2020 and the void he would create for 2021.
"I thought Riley played very consistent last year, had probably one of his best years here, and for him he's just so smart, so competitive, and he's really learned over the years how to play very efficient, and he was definitely one of our most consistent offensive linemen last year," Vikings general manager Rick Spielman said.
The abundant guard market
The list of guards that have been released keeps growing. That could end up paying major dividends for the Vikings.
Upgrading the interior of the offensive line is a priority after it allowed 20 of Minnesota's 32 sacks last season. The Vikings could shoot for a high-priced free agent like Joe Thuney, who was not tagged by New England, or Las Vegas' Gabe Jackson, who became a cap casualty. Or they could find luck going after players on reduced deals: Lane Taylor, Austin Blythe, Brian Winters, newly unretired Kyle Long or James Carpenter, just to name a few.
Finding a starting guard now prevents the Vikings from reaching for one in free agency and they can use the No. 14 pick to draft a defensive end. Minnesota has learned it can't shop the bargain bin (Josh Kline and Dakota Dozier) and expect a major upgrade at guard, but this year presents many options at a variety of price ranges.
Doing so might mean the Vikings have to let Reiff walk to free up the financial resources to go after a guard or two. If that's the case, they could move Ezra Cleveland, who played right guard in 2020, to left tackle and find replacements at left and right guard via free agency or the draft.
But not even the Vikings seem to know were Cleveland is expected to play, once again pointing back to Reiff needing to be the first domino to fall.
"It all depends on what happens over these next couple months on who's here and who's not here," Spielman said. "Then it's the coaches figuring out what's our best five. And where are you going to line them all up at? We're very excited about some of these young offensive linemen and usually these offensive linemen continue to grow and get better every year.
"So I think with a [Garrett] Bradbury and with [Brian] O'Neill and now Ezra, I think we're very excited about having a young core up there that'll continue to grow and get better. But I think the coaches will determine what's the best lineup, and we have had a lot of discussion about that already."
What's next?
The Vikings build through the draft and tend to reward players early with contract extensions. It has happened that way in recent years with the likes of Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter and Dalvin Cook.
Right tackle O'Neill should be next.
Entering his fourth season in Minnesota, O'Neill, 25, has vastly improved his run blocking -- a critical component to the success of this offense -- and has been relatively consistent as a pass blocker (three sacks allowed, 26 total pressures in 2020).
It should benefit the Vikings to pay O'Neill before he's set to hit free agency in a year, depending on how they judge his value. Pro Football Focus estimated a fair deal for O'Neill in the range of $15 million per year, projecting a five-year extension worth $75 million with $42.5 million in guarantees. That would put him in the top five of highest-paid right tackles. If the Vikings can get him on a reduced price in the $10 million to $12 million range, they should extend O'Neill as soon as possible.
But if Reiff is out of the mix, the Vikings could consider moving O'Neill to left tackle and Cleveland to right tackle. That would impact O'Neill's value and the price to keep him in Minnesota. O'Neill is arguably their most consistent offensive lineman over the past three years. Locking him up on a long-term deal is a no-brainer.