PHILADELPHIA -- For Chip Kelly, it could have gone better and it could have gone worse.
If Kelly tried as hard as reported to trade up for quarterback Marcus Mariota, then obviously it would have been better for Kelly to succeed. Getting Mariota would have given Kelly a franchise quarterback that he already has coached and who has already mastered his offense.
The Eagles’ reported offer -- NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said it included two first-round picks, a third-round pick and a handful of players -- was significant. It might have seemed like too much for the Tennessee Titans to turn down. Of course, if Mariota was worth that much to Kelly, then he was worth that much to the Titans, too. The Titans went 2-14 last season with a sixth-round pick, Zach Mettenberger, as their No. 1 quarterback.
If you drew a picture of a franchise in need of a quarterback, it would look just like the Titans.
For Kelly, not getting Mariota isn’t nearly as bad as not trying to get Mariota would have been. Kelly has spent this offseason proving that he is willing to be bold and creative to remake the roster of his team. He traded starting quarterback Nick Foles and star running back LeSean McCoy. He was willing to trade much more to get Mariota.
Fans can wish it worked out, but they can’t realistically hold Kelly accountable for a decision another team made. Kelly took a legitimate shot. The Titans said no. That’s how it goes sometimes.
Meanwhile, there is a reasonable chance the Eagles are better off having things turn out this way. Nothing against Mariota -- he has what appears to be a bright future and Kelly clearly believes in him. It’s a matter of probability. Going back to 1998 -- Peyton Manning’s draft year, so the beginning of the current generation of quarterbacks -- there have been 43 QBs selected in the first round.
Of those, 27 were busts, at least for the team that drafted them. Two others were drafted too recently to make a determination. That leaves 14 of 43 quarterbacks (about 33 percent) who rated as good draft picks. They were at least reliable starters for the team that drafted them.
Obviously none of those numbers include Mariota and Jameis Winston, the first two picks of this year’s draft. They have a clean slate. But clearly, history suggests a first-round quarterback is twice as likely to fail as he is to succeed.
Kelly would have been taking that risk with Mariota, plus he would have given up Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, Brandon Boykin and three draft picks. That package might not qualify as “mortgaging the future” -- something Kelly said he would not do -- but it certainly counts as weakening your team.
If Mariota turns out to be Manning (even Eli Manning) or Aaron Rodgers, then that deal would have looked fair. If Mariota turns out to be Ryan Leaf or Vince Young, that deal would have haunted the Eagles for years.
A great quarterback can elevate a team, making up for a lack of talent in other areas. A bad quarterback can make a weak team into a full-blown disaster area.
The way it turned out, Kelly retained the confidence of the fans, who know he pushed all of his chips into the middle of the table. Meanwhile, he avoided paying a ransom for a quarterback who could turn out to be a bust.
That leaves Kelly with Sam Bradford, the quarterback he obtained in exchange for Foles in March. At the time, Kelly said he really liked Bradford, believing the former No. 1 pick (he counts as a bust for the Rams) would excel in his offense. Playing behind a solid offensive line and with a strong running game, Bradford should have a chance to rewrite his NFL legacy.
It could have been better for Kelly on Thursday night. He could have been reunited with a quarterback he believes in, a guy he has compared to Peyton Manning.
But when you look at the whole picture -- retaining some good players, seeing what Bradford can do, maintaining his gutsy image -- Kelly could have done a whole lot worse, too.