TAMPA, Fla. -- Barring any last-minute changes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to use the franchise tag on outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett before next Monday’s deadline, sources tell ESPN, which will cost approximately $16.27 million.

But they’ll have to be thinking about the future, too. Barrett is 27 years old and just wrapped up his first season as a full-time starter, in which he registered a league-leading 19.5 sacks. Whether a new deal happens this year (a team can elect to use the franchise tag by Monday’s deadline but re-sign the player to a new contract) or next, signing him to a long-term contract will be vital to the success of Todd Bowles’ defense.

The impact of using the tag on him

The Bucs are saving some money here because the NFL doesn’t distinguish between inside and outside linebackers. Barrett’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, could try to argue he should receive what defensive ends get -- $19.32 million but he made the Pro Bowl as an outside linebacker and plays the majority of his snaps standing up, so there’s not much of an argument.

Financially, it does make sense for the Bucs to wait to extend him until there’s a new CBA. In the final year of the current CBA, teams are subjected to the "30 percent rule," in which a player’s salary can’t increase by more than 30% from 2020 to 2021, which gives the Bucs and other teams less flexibility on big contracts. The rule would no longer apply if the new CBA is ratified. A new CBA would also preclude the Bucs from using a second transition tag on a player like quarterback Jameis Winston, although there has been some indication the Bucs are preparing to move on from him.

How much could Barrett earn?

The comparisons aren’t hard to find. After receiving the franchise tag twice and producing back-to-back double-digit-sack seasons, Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence signed a five-year deal with the Dallas Cowboys worth $105 million with $65 million guaranteed just before his 27th birthday. Coming off a 13-sack season with the Seattle Seahawks, the Kansas City Chiefs traded for Frank Clark, signing him to a five-year deal worth $104 million ($20.8 million average) last offseason with $62.3 million guaranteed just prior to his 26th birthday. Last offseason, Trey Flowers signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Detroit Lions, with $56 million guaranteed at age 26. The Bucs should be prepared to pay in excess of $18 million per season, but probably more like $20 million, although Barrett has discussed the benefit of playing in Florida, where there is no state income tax.

In terms of contract structure, the Bucs don’t backload their contracts, as some other teams, such as the New Orleans Saints, do. They also don’t use large signing bonuses. If anything, they’re front-loaded or "pay as you go," absorbing the largest salary-cap hit early, with most, if not all the guaranteed money up after two years. The Saints' Cameron Jordan -- the sixth-highest-paid edge rusher in terms of pay per year -- has a cap number that was $9.5 million last year and will be $9 million this year despite his averaging $17.5 million earnings per season. That’s because his cap figure jumps to $18.9 million, $19.5 million and $20 million from 2021 to 2023. This is something to be mindful of if it appears the Bucs aren’t being big spenders when they do get this done.

Is he worth it? What’s the risk?

The risk is he's unable to ever replicate his double-digit-sack performance. Coach Bruce Arians isn't worried. “You don’t get 19.5 being a 'one-year wonder,'" Arians said at the combine, with a laugh. "He’s not a fly-by-night guy. It’s gonna be real for a long time.”

What makes Barrett appealing is that he’s still young and he doesn’t have just one weapon -- he has speed, power and an arsenal of pass-rush moves and countermoves to help him if he doesn’t win right away. And assuming the Bucs are able to re-sign defensive end/linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, he’ll have help on the other side.

How does it impact the rest of the roster?

With roughly $81 million in salary-cap space -- fourth-most in the NFL -- the Bucs are in much better shape than they were last year, but that’s without a starting quarterback on the active roster. A quarterback could cost $30 million a year, the figure being tossed around for Teddy Bridgewater, a player the Bucs have interest in, according to multiple reports. Tom Brady would likely cost the same. That would cut the allotment for Barrett by a third.

They’ll also need to make sure they have enough to re-sign outside linebacker Pierre-Paul, who carried a $10.75 million cap charge in 2019 on a restricted deal, and Ndamukong Suh, who played on a one-year, $9.25 million deal in 2019. Then, they’ll need to extend Pro Bowl wide receiver Chris Godwin, who will become an unrestricted free agent in 2021, as will inside linebacker Lavonte David, who is making $10.05 million in 2020, although those are less pressing needs right now.