Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Washington Redskins, who finished the season 8-7-1:
Redskins Super Bowl barometer: Middle of the pack.
Assessing the foundation: The Washington Redskins haven't had much success, because their foundation has not been sturdy. For too long, there did not appear to be an organizational philosophy other than do what it takes to win. That hasn't worked. In fact, the Redskins haven't won more than 10 games in a season since 1991. So until they prove otherwise, it's hard to say they can build a Super Bowl contender. Winning a couple of playoff games would be a good first step. They do have quality people in key places -- general manager Scot McCloughan is respected as a talent evaluator -- but none of whom have won a Super Bowl in their current roles. Coach Jay Gruden has done a good job helping develop quarterback Kirk Cousins and leading the franchise to 17 wins the past two years after it won four in his first season (and three the previous year). But Gruden will enter his fourth season with one playoff game -- and in Washington the hot seat is always a failed season away. He's also on his third defensive coordinator in four years, which isn't good. But the offensive staff is a strong one put together by Gruden. The pressure is on to make sure this coordinator hire is golden. Two of the past three drafts have been solid, though the book is still open on last year's class. Still, people around the league have been surprised at the stability among evaluators in Washington, given the overall lack of consistent success -- though it's always been in question how much the evaluators were listened to pre-McCloughan. With the Redskins, there are reasons to be optimistic but also enough to be skeptical until proven otherwise. One thing that's good: As an organization they took not making the playoffs hard and have been re-evaluating everything.
Judging the quarterback: This is the tricky part because of Cousins' situation. It's hard to imagine the Redskins not keeping him around after what he's done the past two seasons. But it's also clear the Redskins like him a lot -- but only to a point. Will that "point" be enough to satisfy both sides for a long-term deal? That's a big question this offseason. There's always the franchise tag for a second consecutive year as well. As of now, we'll assume Cousins will be here in 2017. That would give Washington stability at the game's most important position, with Colt McCoy as the No. 2. The Redskins feel confident if something happened to Cousins that McCoy could run the show, especially in the short term. But he'd still have to prove he can do it for the long haul; No. 3 quarterback Nate Sudfeld needs a lot more seasoning. So it would be on Cousins to make the offense go. The Redskins have won 17 games in two seasons in part because of him, not in spite of. It's hard to blame the quarterback when the defense was bad and the run game inconsistent. Cousins will not do what Aaron Rodgers has done this postseason, and he's not in the elite category. That takes MVP awards and playoff wins. It's also incorrect to think Cousins would be easy to replace. The Redskins do need to keep him surrounded by high-level offensive talent, and if the defense doesn't improve, Cousins can only carry them so far. In other words, he's good -- and the Redskins' future will be determined by how much the franchise thinks that's worth.
Realistic ways the Redskins can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
Sign Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal. No, he's not Aaron Rodgers (who is?) and he's probably closer to the middle of the pack than he is to being a top-10 passer. But he also knows the offense well, and the Redskins have the talent around him to make it work. The tough part is figuring out an alternative plan.
Improve the defensive line. Changing coordinators won't mean a whole lot if the talent base doesn't get better up front. The Redskins plan to attack this area, whether in free agency or the draft -- or both. They like free-agent end Chris Baker but know they'd have to do a lot more or else things won't change.
Keep the receiver talent. That means re-signing either DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon, who will be two of the best options on the market. However, it's not a given that one will stick aroun, so if both depart then the Redskins need to add talent. Josh Doctson missed all but two games his rookie year, and while they have Jamison Crowder (slot) and Jordan Reed (tight end), they would need another strong veteran option.