Super Bowl LIV is upon us. The Chiefs and 49ers are the last teams standing, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and ESPN fantasy football writer Mike Clay are here to tell us what they like for the biggest betting day of the year.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Tuesday; picks on lines available at time of posting.
Super Bowl LIV best bets
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 54)
Fortenbaugh: I believe there are two key factors as to why the wrong team is favored in this matchup, and they both find their roots in the cognitive bias known as recency bias. The Chiefs hung a combined 86 points in spectacular fashion on the Texans and Titans this postseason, leading many to fawn over the unstoppable nature of this high-powered offense. However, both of those contests took place at Arrowhead Stadium against organizations that boast two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (Houston, 29th; Tennessee, 24th). For comparison's sake, San Francisco finished the regular season ranked first in the NFL in pass defense (169.2 yards per game) and tied for fifth in sacks (48). Kansas City's offense won't have nearly the same level of success in the Super Bowl as it had in its two previous playoff matchups.