NFL Week 11 best bets: Picks for Sunday night game

Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (0-4 last week, 10-18 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (3-3, 22-34), Anita Marks (2-6, 33-53-1), Preston Johnson (0-1, 11-16), Mike Clay (0-1, 11-9) and Tyler Fulghum (2-4, 26-34-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-1, 19-10), Seth Walder (4-3, 33-16) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-4, 21-32-1) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's slate.

Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change. (The Lions-Panthers game is not on the board as of this posting.)

8:20 p.m. ET game

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 56.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Fortenbaugh: You think the Chiefs have forgotten about that 40-32 upset the Raiders sprung in Kansas City back on Oct. 11? Andy Reid sure hasn't -- he told the media a story this past week about the Raiders taking a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium in their team buses following that game. Said Reid, "They won the game, so they can do anything they want to do. That's not our style." If Reid went out of his way to mention that bus story, I've got no problem going out of my way to back him in this spot. The Chiefs are clearly using that as motivation for this week's rematch.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5

1 p.m. ET games

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5, 51.5)

Schatz: Would it surprise you to learn the past four New Orleans games have gone under this week's total of 51.5?