College Football Playoff scenarios heading into Champ Week

C.J. Stroud's hopes for a Big Ten championship ended with Saturday's loss to Michigan, but the Buckeyes aren't out of the CFP picture just yet. Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

With the regular season officially over and only conference championship games remaining, this could be very easy for the College Football Playoff selection committee -- or extremely controversial.

Here's what is certain: Two-loss Clemson and the ACC are out following the Tigers' home loss to South Carolina. The ACC is guaranteed a champion with at least two losses, as Coastal Division victor North Carolina now has three defeats after falling Friday night to rival NC State. Ohio State's playoff hopes are dire after being thoroughly outplayed by rival Michigan in Columbus. And the only way three-loss LSU makes CFP history now is by becoming the first SEC champion to miss the playoff, should the Tigers miraculously find a way to upset Georgia.

If Georgia, Michigan and TCU all finish as undefeated conference champions, they're in. USC could join them in the fourth spot as soon as Tuesday evening, when the committee reveals its fifth of six rankings.

It's a chalk scenario that would make for a neat and tidy Selection Day; but with the most critical games remaining, there are also plenty of what-ifs that could complicate things:

What if TCU loses a close game to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game?

What if USC loses in the Pac-12 championship game?

What if LSU does win? What happens to Georgia?

Is there any path for Ohio State? Two-loss Alabama?!

Here are seven scenarios, ranked in order of most to least likely to happen, with a prediction of what the committee would do in each situation. For these predictions, the favorites are Georgia, USC, TCU and Michigan.