A holiday Sunday presents a 10-game NBA schedule. With just two weeks left in the regular season, we should celebrate such large slates as the playoffs loom.
An unintentional theme for today's selections is optimism in the sense of endorsing a series of over bets. Call it the holiday spirit, or simply what my model eyes as the best margins among today's prop market.
Of today's picks, only the games involving the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Chicago Bulls and the LA Clippers against the Charlotte Hornets claim point totals below 220 points, thus another thematic strategy is investing in positive offensive climates for Sunday.
With a lens on finding the sharpest angles ahead of tonight's schedule, let's dig into the matchups and find some opportunities to win.
Stephen Curry over 26.5 points
The San Antonio Spurs are enjoying a recent run as upset specialists. With Victor Wembanyama already among the league's premier rim protectors and deterrents, it's likely we see Curry loft double-digit attempts from beyond the arc in this important game for the Warriors' playoff potential. Yes, Curry hasn't hit this number in the past three contests, but he's facing a young Spurs team allowing 19.8 wide-open 3-pointers per game to opponents. This metric is based on shooters having at least six feet of space from the closest defender and speaks to the Spurs' potential lack of rotations in close-out scenarios. Either way, the potential for Curry, who has a 3-point prop of 4.5 today, to thrive from deep is quite viable.
Mikal Bridges over 18.5 points, over 22.5 points and rebounds
A quiet scoring season from Bridges has picked up lately in part thanks to averaging a whopping 11 3-point attempts over the past five outings. With a reasonable scoring prop of 18.5 points and some cushion to surpass his prop for points and rebounds, a healthy point total (226.5) against the visiting Lakers speaks to the potential for this Villanova product to cruise past these thresholds in Brooklyn this evening.
Ayo Dosunmu over 6.5 assists and rebounds
The return of Coby White and Alex Caruso to the fold has quieted Dosunmu's recent run of high-scoring outcomes. That said, he's still averaging nearly 35 MPG in the past four games with assist and rebounding rates that appear due for positive corrections. Which is to say, over the past five games Dosunmu leads the Bulls in passes per game (45.2) while producing 5.6 potential dimes per game, a sign that he's due for more productive passing results. He's also corralled just 37.5% of his 6.2 rebounding chances per game over this past five-game sample, again suggesting he's "due" for a better actualized rate. Combine his minutes, touches, passing, and rebounding opportunity rates and it reads like Dosunmu is in a spot to surpass this reasonable tally of dimes and boards against Minnesota.
Taylor Hendricks over 15.5 combined points and rebounds
The Jazz are essentially sitting Lauri Markkanen the rest of the way, which opens more minutes and experience opportunities for this rookie forward. Averaging 15.6 combined rebounds and points the past four games, Hendricks' combined prop in these categories for today appears reasonable. The Kings have a brilliant rebounding force in Domantas Sabonis, but there should be chances to clean the glass for Hendricks given his spike in minutes and post presence sans Markkanen.
Vasilije Micić over 5.5 assists
The Hornets' offense is, well, not very good. This doesn't disqualify Micic's potential to pass, however, as the former EuroLeague star is 25th in the league over the past 10 games in potential assists with 11.2. Likely to run a series of pick-and-roll sets to get James Harden and the switch-heavy Clippers' approach in motion, Micic, who has 20 assists in the past two games, is in a good spot to distribute today.
Amen Thompson over 12.5 rebounds and assists
In the nine games since Alperen Sengun was injured, this rising rookie has led Houston with a robust 14.4 rebounding chances per game. A physical two-way force, Thompson has surpassed this total of rebounds and assists in three of his past four games. In regards to passing, Thompson has produced multiple assists in six straight. Dallas, meanwhile, ranks 26th in rebounding percentage on the season, offering another positive for Thompson's path to hitting this mark.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets3:30 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 45-29 (34-39-1)
Nuggets: 51-23 (33-39-2)
Line: Nuggets (-4.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Cavaliers (+160), Nuggets (-190)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 1, straight up 54%, 221.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Caris LeVert, (GTD - Wrist); Craig Porter, (GTD - Illness); Isaac Okoro, (GTD - Toe); Dean Wade, (OUT - Knee); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Knee); Nikola Jokic, (GTD - Wrist); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Zeke Nnaji, (OUT - Thigh)
Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets6 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 41-33 (34-40-0)
Nets: 29-45 (32-39-3)
Line: Lakers (-6.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Lakers (-235), Nets (+195)
BPI Projection: Lakers by 0.6, straight up 52%, 230.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Knee); Gabe Vincent, (GTD - Knee); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT - Foot); Christian Wood, (OUT - Knee); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT - Back)
Nets: Cameron Johnson, (GTD - Toe); Dennis Smith Jr., (GTD - Hip); Ben Simmons, (OUT - Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT - Lower Leg); Keita Bates-Diop, (OUT - Lower Leg)
LA Clippers at Charlotte Hornets6 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 46-27 (35-38-0)
Hornets: 18-55 (28-45-0)
Line: Clippers (-14.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Clippers (-1800), Hornets (+900)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 13.4, straight up 88%, 234.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Clippers: Jordan Miller, (GTD - Thumb); Moussa Diabate, (GTD - Hand)
Hornets: Aleksej Pokusevski, (GTD - Illness); Cody Martin, (OUT - Ankle); LaMelo Ball, (OUT - Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT - Back); Seth Curry, (OUT - Ankle)
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors6 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 39-35 (40-34-0)
Raptors: 23-50 (32-41-0)
Line: 76ers (-11.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: 76ers (-580), Raptors (+430)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 6.6, straight up 73%, 220.8 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: Joel Embiid, (OUT - Knee); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee); De'Anthony Melton, (OUT - Back)
Raptors: RJ Barrett, (GTD - Personal); Chris Boucher, (OUT - Knee); D.J. Carton, (OUT - Ankle); Immanuel Quickley, (OUT - Personal); Ochai Agbaji, (OUT - Hip); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT - Finger); Scottie Barnes, (OUT - Hand); Jontay Porter, (OUT - Personal)
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards6 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 40-33 (35-37-1)
Wizards: 14-60 (33-40-1)
Line: Heat (-10.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Heat (-600), Wizards (+425)
BPI Projection: Heat by 10.7, straight up 84%, 221.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Duncan Robinson, (GTD - Back); Nikola Jovic, (GTD - Knee); Caleb Martin, (OUT - Ankle); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Foot); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
Wizards: Kyle Kuzma, (GTD - Heel); Richaun Holmes, (GTD - Toe); Eugene Omoruyi, (OUT - Ankle); Landry Shamet, (OUT - Calf); Tyus Jones, (OUT - Back); Bilal Coulibaly, (OUT - Wrist); Isaiah Livers, (OUT - Hip)
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks7 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 51-22 (42-30-1)
Knicks: 44-29 (39-33-1)
Line: Knicks (-1.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Thunder (+110), Knicks (-130)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 0.9, straight up 53%, 235.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, (GTD - Quadriceps)
Knicks: Alec Burks, (GTD - Shoulder); Duane Washington Jr., (GTD - Knee); Isaiah Hartenstein, (GTD - Wrist); Mitchell Robinson, (GTD - Ankle); OG Anunoby, (OUT - Elbow); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder)
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets7 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 44-29 (43-30-0)
Rockets: 38-35 (41-30-2)
Line: Mavericks (-2.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Mavericks (-140), Rockets (+120)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 0.5, straight up 52%, 227.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Josh Green, (OUT - Ankle)
Rockets: Cam Whitmore, (GTD - Knee); Alperen Sengun, (OUT - Ankle); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves7 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 35-39 (36-37-1)
Timberwolves: 51-22 (38-32-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-8.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Bulls (+290), Timberwolves (-375)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 6.4, straight up 72%, 226.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD - Ankle); Ayo Dosunmu, (GTD - Illness); Julian Phillips, (OUT - Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT - Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT - Foot)
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, (GTD - Finger); Jordan McLaughlin, (GTD - Shoulder); Rudy Gobert, (GTD - Ribs); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Knee)
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs7 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 39-34 (39-32-2)
Spurs: 18-56 (37-36-1)
Line: Warriors (-8.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Warriors (-375), Spurs (+290)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 8.6, straight up 77%, 237.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga, (GTD - Knee); Klay Thompson, (GTD - Knee); Dario Saric, (OUT - Knee)
Spurs: Jeremy Sochan, (OUT - Ankle); Keldon Johnson, (OUT - Foot); Charles Bassey, (OUT - Knee)
Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings9 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 29-45 (38-36-0)
Kings: 42-31 (37-35-1)
Line: Kings (-12.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Jazz (+550), Kings (-900)
BPI Projection: Kings by 8.5, straight up 77%, 239.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Jazz: John Collins, (GTD - Back); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT - Back); Lauri Markkanen, (OUT - Shoulder)
Kings: Sasha Vezenkov, (GTD - Ankle); Trey Lyles, (GTD - Knee); Malik Monk, (OUT - Knee); Kevin Huerter, (OUT - Shoulder)