As the college football season hurdles toward its dramatic conclusion, the landscape of the playoff race continues to shift with each passing week. Among the most notable climbers (from a betting perspective) are Miami and SMU, both jumping into the top 10 and seeing their odds of making the playoff improve dramatically.
In this volatile environment, where rankings and odds seem to be in constant flux, bettors and fans alike are left to ponder: Is there value to be found in the chaos?
As we dive into the intricacies of the current playoff picture and explore potential betting strategies, one question looms large: In a season defined by unpredictability, why would the chaos stop now?
Here are the biggest movers and the betting implications that have emerged from the latest rankings:
Movers up the rankings
No. 6 Miami (-280 to make the playoff, +200 to miss)
Last week: No. 11
No. 10 SMU (-170 to make the playoff, +135 to miss)
Last week: No. 13
Both Miami and SMU have seen their playoff prospects improve substantially, which is reflected in their shortened odds. The upcoming ACC Championship game looms large, with Miami needing a win over Syracuse to clinch its berth, while SMU has already secured its spot. The winner is likely to claim the third seed in the CFP, adding significance to the matchup.
Recent SEC upsets have benefited both teams, opening up playoff spots and improving the ACC's standing. Interestingly, there's a slight misalignment between rankings and betting odds, with Miami's -280 odds contrasting with SMU's -170, despite being only one spot apart. This discrepancy might be due to factors such as remaining schedules, perceived strength in potential championship matchups or bias toward Miami's Heisman candidate quarterback Cam Ward.
With both teams now favored for the playoff, it suggests the ACC runner-up could also make it. However, if Miami is expected to win the ACC, there might be value in taking SMU at +135 to miss. SMU's chances heavily depend on winning the ACC Championship, and other conference champions such as Boise State or the Big 12 winner could potentially leapfrog an ACC runner-up. For this scenario, the ACC champion would need to clearly outperform the runner-up, while other conference champions make compelling cases to the selection committee.
A Week 14 loss to Cal followed by an ACC Championship loss would eliminate SMU from playoff contention.
Betting considerations: Why would the chaos stop now?
While some of these options might seem outlandish, they present interesting ways to capitalize on the volatility of the playoff race.
Big 12
The Colorado Buffaloes' path to the title game, though a long shot at +650, presents an interesting betting angle. The Buffaloes need two of the three -- Arizona State, BYU or Iowa State -- to lose in order to make the Big 12 Championship game. A money-line parlay on underdogs Houston (+425 vs. BYU) and Kansas State (+115 vs. Iowa State) would pay +1030, offering better value than backing Colorado directly.
SEC
The Texas Longhorns' situation is particularly intriguing. With odds for Texas to make or miss the playoff surprisingly unlisted, backing Texas A&M at +180 on the money line for its crucial matchup could be valuable. A Longhorns loss would significantly impact their playoff chances, potentially eliminating them from consideration, despite currently holding the No. 3 CFP rank.
ACC
Even Miami, favored by 11 points this weekend, isn't safe from upset potential. Syracuse at +300 might be worth considering, given Miami's history of close calls this season.
Parlay potential
For those seeking a high-risk, high-reward option, a "let the madness continue" parlay combining Syracuse (+300), Kansas State (+115), Texas A&M (+180) and Houston (+425) offers astronomical +12545 odds. While extremely unlikely, it embodies the spirit of betting on continued chaos.
Syracuse (+300) over Miami
Kansas State (+125) over Iowa State
Texas A&M (+200) over Texas
Houston (+450) over BYU
Any combination of these underdog bets could yield a high-risk, high-reward parlay if you're looking for a big payout. The idea of backing underdogs outright, either individually or in a parlay, as an alternative to the make-or-miss playoff odds being offered could potentially yield better odds and higher payouts compared to the current playoff odds.
As always, these high-risk bets should be approached with caution. The college football landscape is notoriously unpredictable, and betting on multiple upsets is a bold strategy. For those who believe the chaos of this season is far from over, these options provide food for thought in what could be an exciting conclusion to the regular season.