The received wisdom is that you can't read much into F1 winter testing. Received wisdom is often right but usually dull, so I'd much rather throw caution to the wind and put my neck on the line with a number of predictions for 2016.
Starting with the obvious...
Mercedes are going to be the team to beat, again. Sure, the first week of testing in Barcelona has seen the bulk of the grid refer to improvements to their power units and Ferrari has been topping the timesheets, but it's pretty clear to all those present that Mercedes have barely lit the wick on their power unit, let alone turned it up even a little.
The metronomic consistency of the hundreds of laps hammered out by Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton over the past four days should strike fear into the hearts of those hoping for a change to the order this year. By the end of the first test the W07 had completed enough kilometres to make it through half the F1 season, and without any failures of note.
A quick and reliable W07 -- which is what it looks like we've got again this year -- is going to be tough for the likes of Ferrari and Red Bull to beat, even with their own relative gains in the power and aero departments. Over plates of tapas and glasses of tempranillo in the evenings, some of the paddock's tech specialists have raised the prospect of Force India and Williams joining the Silver Arrows in pushing the other powertrains down to the bottom half of the top ten.
Which is where the new (proposed but not yet confirmed for 2016...) elimination-style qualifying comes in. Initial fan reaction has been largely negative, yet the new system -- which may be fixing something that wasn't particularly broke -- is one which will introduce more jokers into the grid, keeping drivers out of position, team strategists on their toes, and ensuring a much more interesting opening phase of races as out-of-position cars fight their way through the field.
Think back to Germany and Hungary in 2014, two races where Hamilton started from the back of the grid and delivered sterling drives back up through the pack to podium finishes, because that is the aim of the new system. While the strategists get their heads around the best way to manage the new qualifying (and the optimum tyre selection strategies for each weekend) the hope is that the faster cars and drivers will find themselves forced to lend drama to Sundays if they are to achieve their car's potential.
Mercedes might have the quickest car all year, but that doesn't mean we'll necessarily see another season of 'delivered a lights-to-flag win for the Silver Arrows, with his teammate his only on-track rival' in every F1 race report.
One of the highlights of 2015 was the occasional banzai overtaking manoeuvre from Max Verstappen, but such activities are likely to be somewhat rarer this season. Not only does Toro Rosso's young superstar need to mind his on-track manners lest he fall victim to a race ban for overdoing the penalty points, but after a year of watching Verstappen hare past them in ballsy manoeuvres, the rest of the pack is going to expect -- and defend against -- the Dutch Imposition.
Theoretically, the biggest change on track should be at the back of the pack, where the gap between the mid-field and backmarkers is expected to be the narrowest we've seen in years. Manor have moved to Mercedes power, and in so doing have picked up the services of Pascal Wehrlein, Germany's next great world champion hope. The combination of Wehrlein's talent, Brixworth's power unit, and Rio Haryanto's funding is expected to lead to Manor fighting it out in the mid-field for the first time since entering the sport in 2010.
Also expected to be duking it out in the mid-field is Haas, who have arrived in Barcelona all tricked out with the latest in F1 tech and a car whose underpinnings are as Ferrari as it's legal to be. With the Dallara-designed bodywork there's no knowing just where the American newbies will line up in Melbourne, but unlike any of the sport's other recent arrivals no one has mentioned the 107 percent rule every time the car has left the pits in testing.