It is true that Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi is capable of stealing bases like few others and after what we saw from him in 2018, a potential fantasy superstar of the highest magnitude lurks.
Of course, it is also quite possible, if not probable, that Mondesi, for reasons relating not only to his wild approach at the plate but also his questionable health, will look nothing like a superstar in 2020.
Fantasy managers often play the game of risk versus reward in drafts and auctions. When it comes to Mondesi, in whom so many saw potential greatness at this time last season, many of those same folks must question his place on the narrative today. Yes, Mondesi offers ridiculous statistical upside, but if he cannot get on the field and stay on it, and there are concerns about modest power potential, reaching that potential seems problematic. How early will you act in drafts?
If Mondesi were to settle in as a midround selection in drafts, sure, sign me up. No great risk there and we all need the stolen bases. However, that is not happening! Mondesi will go in the first five rounds of most drafts and that is simply too risky. We already worried about his plate discipline affecting his offensive upside and now his return from offseason shoulder surgery is a factor, as it has delayed the start of his spring training. I cannot be alone in arriving at the point I will simply let others deal with this.
Let us review: Mondesi hit a surprising .276 in 2018 with 14 home runs and 32 steals in less than half a season, and extrapolating those figures over the course of six months made fantasy managers go wild. Hey, I admit, I thought a lot of Mondesi this time last season, willing to ignore his over-aggressive plate approach to a degree. The power seemed stunning based on his profile and minor league numbers, but a reasonable output of double-digit homers combined with 50 steals is fascinating enough. It is what we hope/expect from Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, right? Well, Mondesi is clearly not Turner.
I do not think Mondesi comes at enough of a bargain price even now. Mondesi sure can run, but other than that, be careful, for Turner's five-category potential seems outside his potential. Mondesi hit .263 with 9 home runs and 43 steals in 102 games and 443 plate appearances last season, which looks special on a per-game basis, notably for the stolen bases, but one has to wonder just how many games he can play in 2020. The Royals have been cautious with him this spring, and Opening Day seems unlikely for Mondesi. Perhaps they are telling us something.
Every "Do Not Draft" list regardless of sport comes with caveats: Of course, I would want these players on my fantasy teams at the right cost, but often the cost is simply not right. I look at ADP across not only ESPN but also at other sites to determine what a player's general value seems to be, and if it jibes with my opinion. When it comes to flawed hitters or pitchers it often creates difference of opinion, but throw in injury questions and there are red flags galore. We still wait for Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco to return to high-end fantasy relevance after his own labral repair procedure years ago, and Mondesi does not offer that power potential.
As the son of a former player and one who quickly ingratiated himself to fantasy managers, Mondesi seems to get the proverbial value pass in comparison with other young, flawed but certainly exciting players. He has drawn an incomprehensible 30 walks against 209 strikeouts over the past two seasons, and few can overcome such a serious lack of plate discipline. I worry that this potential superstar struggles to hit for average and power and cannot stay on the field consistently. The magical lure of stolen bases has created a faulty draft day price where Mondesi often goes before Zack Greinke, Jose Abreu and Keston Hiura, among myriad others. I must pass.
OK, so Mondesi leads this season's "Do Not Draft" list. Who else makes it? Let us go in order of general ADP.