Mock drafts can be very helpful, as they give a fantasy player a general idea of where other owners value the available baseball talent, in comparison to their own point of view. By participating in multiple mocks, you can get a better feel for which players you might be reaching for too early and which players you're going to have to snatch up earlier than you might have planned, lest you miss out on them altogether.
However, each individual mock is but a snapshot in time. Taken alone, it tells you the temperature of the draft room on that particular day. But when you compare drafts held at different times over the course of the spring, there might be some additional information to be gleaned from the effort, especially in identifying players whose stock might be on the rise or who perhaps might have dropped off the cliff entirely.
That's why we decided to hold another points league mock on Monday. We used the standard ESPN settings for this format, meaning a 10-team mixed league with a 25-man roster featuring the following positional breakdown: one of each infield position, five outfielders, one 1B/3B, one 2B/SS, one utility player, nine pitchers (no designations for starters or relievers) and three bench spots.
The drafters this time around, in a randomly selected first-round order, were Derek Carty, Tim Kavanagh, Dan Szymborski, Joe Kaiser, Eric Karabell, I, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Renee Miller, Todd Zola and Leo Howell taking the turn into the reverse snake.
In each round, I'll denote any significant "risers" or "fallers" in relation to the first points mock, which took place Feb. 25, and discuss any strategies and decision-making secrets my fellow drafters were willing to share after the proceedings. What a difference a few weeks make!
Reminder: Because we're using points and not categories, it behooves a fantasy player to evaluate the talent pool differently. Batters get one point for each total base, run scored, stolen base, walk and RBI and lose a point for each strikeout. Pitchers get a point for each out they record, an extra point for a strikeout and five points for a win or a save. A point is deducted for each walk they allow, two points are subtracted for each earned run that crosses the plate on their watch, and they lose five points for a loss.
Round 1
Derek Carty was very excited to see he had scored the first overall pick: "My love for Clayton Kershaw is well-documented to the point that I'd probably take him first overall in a roto league. In a points league, it's an absolute no-brainer."
Riser: Jose Bautista (No. 9, up from 15 in first mock). As Zola noted, "I have Bautista as the top hitter -- period -- in this scoring system. The scoring really favors sluggers that don't whiff and walk a lot."
Riser: Andrew McCutchen (No. 10, up from 16). Howell noted that in in the first two rounds, "I went with two guys I knew I could trust as bats at 10-11 (McCutchen and Manny Machado) since none of the elite pitching fell to me. I would have taken Chris Sale or Max Scherzer, but since both were gone, I settled for bats."
Round 2
Riser: Jake Arrieta (No. 13, up from 20). Miller said she wasn't comfortable waiting too long on pitching, so her plan was to mix it in from the get-go. "In the year of the Cubs, I want at least one! There's really no reason to think Arrieta won't match last year's production. Saves and wins are worth equal points, so I plan to load up on two good closers early." She did so in the fifth and eighth rounds with Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel.
Faller: Carlos Correa (No. 17, down from 7). Kaiser moved away from his usual strategy of loading up on outfielders and pitchers "early and often" when Correa slipped to him in the second round. "I had to go shortstop with my second pick. Naturally, I then opted for a second baseman (Dee Gordon) in the third round and a third baseman (Todd Frazier) in round four, leaving me with a loaded infield but far from my usual approach." In a points league, Correa's projected sub-.350 OBP is what will likely keep him out of first-round consideration the majority of the time.
Round 3
Riser: J.D. Martinez (No. 28, up from 40). We heard from Miller on pitching. Next she discussed which hitters she likes to target: "I went with good on-base and total-base production and limited strikeouts. Because Ks are penalized and HRs aren't specifically rewarded, I avoided all-or-nothing power hitters. The correlation between team record and fantasy player value is very strong in MLB -- stronger than any other sport/position outside of QB in the NFL."
Faller: Joey Votto (No. 21, down from 18). It's only three spots, but I can't understand why Votto consistently falls into the late second round in most points league drafts. To see him go in Round 3? Unreal! I rank Votto No. 13 overall, and the only reason I didn't grab him myself is because my No. 10 player (Jose Altuve) fell to me at my No. 15 pick. Votto's projected 0.94 K/BB rate is as good as it gets.
Kaiser had to choose between Dee Gordon and A.J. Pollock and called it "one of the toughest decisions I had to make ... I opted for Gordon, but in retrospect, I might have used that pick on one of the game's most versatile outfielders and an absolute force in points leagues." I agree with that assessment of Pollock, which is why I grabbed him at No. 26.
Round 4
Carty felt David Ortiz's being available with the last pick of the fourth round was "completely baffling. People have discounted him for years based on his UT-only eligibility and his age, but he continues to be one of the game's best hitters with a skill set that lends itself very well to points leagues. He's an absolute steal here."
Howell snuck in his tag-team selection of Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, finding no problem with double-dipping in the New York Mets' rotation. "The scoring format is balanced -- don't get me wrong -- but I feel like pitching wasn't coming off the board very quickly, and while it's easy to compare them, I got a pair of guys I know can produce."
Szymborski grabbed "riser" Chris Archer (No. 38, up from 54) because he "is more willing to aggressively draft pitching in a points league. Plus, I was banking on one of the top shortstops still being available for my sixth-round pick."
Risers: Zack Greinke (No. 32, up from 44), Matt Carpenter (No. 33, up from 42), Robinson Cano (No. 36, up from 45).
Fallers: Chris Davis (No. 35, down from 30), Jose Abreu (No. 39, down from 32).
Round 5
This round is typically where I start my run of closers, in an effort to go with my "Jon and Kate Plus Eight" pitching strategy, but in this draft, my "Jon and Kate" is represented by No. 6 overall Max Scherzer. However, while I fully intend to go through with that plan, because of my middle draft position, I believe I can continue to go after hitting for a few more rounds before diving into the closer pool. That's why I went with the 30-90 potential of Kyle Seager (No. 46, up from 66) here.
Risers: Adrian Beltre (No. 47, up from 76), Jon Lester (No. 50, up from 72).
There wasn't a lot of variance in this stage of the draft, compared to the previous time, but Carty managed to secure Carlos Carrasco (No. 41, down from 33) and was ecstatic about it: "If there's one pitcher that isn't quite considered an ace yet that has a chance to contend for a Cy Young this year, it's Carrasco. Pairing him with Kershaw gives me a dominant top of my rotation."
Karabell jumped in on Jose Fernandez (No. 45, up from 56) here, as he was looking to build his rotation early due to the format. "I was pleased to get Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard (Round 6) when I did. I don't necessarily assume I'll get 30 starts for either, but they should have many good starts."
Howell, on the 5-6 turn, selected Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez (51, up from 74). "These guys are pretty much in the same tier as the two Mets I took 20 picks earlier, with several SPs going between. Lester is boring, but he's going to be a regular starter for an elite team and has strikeout-per-inning upside. Felix is probably on a bit of a decline, but his demise has been exaggerated."
Rounds 6-7
Carty grabbed Daniel Murphy (No. 61, up from 89): "Most people don't realize that Daniel Murphy is getting a fairly sizable park boost going from Citi Field to Nationals Park. Paired with his low strikeout rate, he's a very solid pick here."
Meanwhile, as Michael Brantley (No. 65, up from 91) shows he's getting closer to being ready for Opening Day, Karabell "really likes" getting the outfielder in Round 7. He cited his potential to be a "top-10 outfielder, especially in points formats because he seldom strikes out."
Risers: Lorenzo Cain (No. 53, up from 73).
Fallers: Nelson Cruz (No. 55, down from 41), George Springer (No. 64, down from 34), Starling Marte (No. 66, down from 46), Corey Seager (No. 68, down from 51).
Brian Dozier (No. 58, down from 43) went to Szymborski in Round 6, even though he had been looking to go shortstop: "The next tier at SS was all still left, and with only four picks before my next pick ..." he would need all those picks to be shortstops to ruin his plan. "Second base looks weaker here, so I went with Dozier." Only Xander Bogaerts went off the board before Szymborski selected Francisco Lindor.
Jason Heyward (No. 60, down from 29) went to Carty, who gambled that the outfielder would still be around for him and won. "His plate discipline makes him a great points league pick, especially now that his surrounding lineup is so stellar ... I was thrilled to see him fall." In truth, Heyward's points league value likely lies somewhere between the first mock's reach and this overcorrection in the market.
Rounds 8-9
When you're picking on the end of the snake, you either reach for a pick a little early because you're going to watch 18 picks go off the board before you hear that SportsCenter sting again or you take a guy who has somehow defied the odds and remained unclaimed from your queue since you most recently claimed a player. For Howell, that's what happened at the top of Round 8, with his picks of Eric Hosmer (No. 70, up from 81) and Kyle Schwarber (No. 71, down from 50).
"Hosmer is a young player who hits the ball very hard, and I believe there's home run upside we haven't seen yet. In a league that rewards a ton of points for homers, I'll take a guy with a ceiling there," Howell said. "The same logic applies to Schwarber, although his home runs come with a risk of lower playing time and more strikeouts. But at the catcher position, few have a wider range of outcomes or a higher ceiling. I needed to take a chance or two with my bats after getting so many sure things at pitcher."
For me, after seeing Craig Kimbrel, Wade Davis, Trevor Rosenthal, Cody Allen and Ken Giles go in a 10-pick stretch, I knew I could wait no longer. I grabbed Mark Melancon in Round 8 and followed that with another closer in each of the subsequent six rounds. Although I might have fallen short of my pitching goals, had anyone been using a strategy similar to mine, that ended up not being the case, and in the end, I think my overall lineup ended up vastly superior to what it looked like in previous drafts.
Risers: Garrett Richards (No. 72, up from 104), Danny Salazar (No. 83, up from 96), Cole Hamels (No. 87, up from 101), Carlos Santana (No. 89, up from 118).
Fallers: Yoenis Cespedes (No. 75, down from 60), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 76, down from 65), Carlos Gonzalez (No. 77, down from 62), Adam Jones (No. 84, down from 70).
Rounds 10-12
Let's take a closer look at some of the fallers folks were excited to see land in their laps in the middle stage of the draft, starting with Christian Yelich (No. 98, down from 83). Szymborski was glad to grab him, as he was "still short on outfielder and first baseman, and I love Yelich's upside -- a beast after coming back from injury last year and younger than people think."
Symborski also got bargain pricing on Jonathan Lucroy (No. 118, down from 86), a catcher with "bounce-back potential." Although he was torn here and almost went with Lucas Duda instead, Symborski ended up with the first baseman at pick No 123. It's likely Lucroy would have lasted those extra few picks -- especially because this group has no problem waiting a long time to select a backstop -- but it probably wasn't worth rolling the dice to find out.
Kaiser grabbed Gregory Polanco (No. 104, down from 82): "While having to focus on pitchers in the latter half of the draft, I made a point to draft for value when I saw appropriate. That enabled me to get guys like Polanco. That's a part of the draft I was particularly happy about." Indeed, this is a value, as Polanco ranks in the top 60 in ESPN's Points League Rankings.
Kaiser's focus on pitching yielded him Jordan Zimmermann (No. 117, down from 98), who was his first pitcher of the draft. To see what kind of staff you can cobble together with such a late start, add Justin Verlander, Julio Teheran, Taijuan Walker, Gio Gonzalez, James Shields, R.A. Dickey, Mike Leake and Anibal Sanchez to the roster. It can be done.
Risers: Hunter Pence (No. 92, up from 116), Maikel Franco (No. 100, up from 122), Dustin Pedroia (No. 101, up from 129), Curtis Granderson (No. 111, up from 137), Ben Revere (No. 113, up from 181), Elvis Andrus (No. 114, up from 141), Drew Smyly (No. 119, up from 143), Michael Pineda (No. 120, up from 166).
Rounds 13-15
Risers: Mike Fiers (No. 133, up from 168), Gerardo Parra (No. 140, up from 192), Stephen Piscotty (No. 145, up from 204).
Also on the upswing are Ian Desmond, who though No. 139 here wasn't selected at all in our first mock because he had yet to sign a contract with the Texas Rangers, and Mark Trumbo (No. 138, up from 211). Of Trumbo, Szymborski said, "His defense is going to be atrocious, but until I lose points for UZR, I'll take the limited right-handed slugger moving to Camden Yards."
Fallers: Jacoby Ellsbury (No. 147, down from 114), Kolten Wong (No. 148, down from 120).
Rounds 16-18
Risers: Joc Pederson (No. 151, up from 216), Matt Duffy (No. 153, undrafted), Josh Harrison (No. 159, up from 238), Denard Span (No. 163, undrafted), Yu Darvish (No. 165, up from 194), Trevor Story (No. 175, up from 242), Victor Martinez (No. 176, up from 195).
Fallers: Josh Reddick (No. 155, down from 112), Brandon Belt (No. 157, down from 128), Mike Moustakas (No. 167, down from 127), Byung Ho Park (No. 171, down from 130).
Sometimes an unexpected player can cause some controversy later in drafts, and on this occasion, that player was Erick Aybar (No. 172, up from 226). As Carty said, "I debated taking Aybar in Round 16 to fill my SS spot instead of a second closer, but I decided instead to hope that he'd fall one more round since he's so boring and nobody actually seems to like him (except me because I love boring guys)." Nobody, it turns out, except for Zola, who grabbed Aybar in Round 18.
Why did he do it? "Top of the order guys with good contact that score runs are favored by this scoring system, which is why I took Aybar (and Alexei Ramirez in Round 20), taking what I felt were strong pitchers in the middle portion of the draft. With poor outings not destroying a team, I favor all starters and no relievers to maximize points using matchups. Closers are good for a solid floor. I prefer to manage to get the ceiling," Zola said.
Carty's playful retort? "I don't like that guy."
Rounds 19-21
Rounding out your starting lineup with upside potential is something you want to strive for in any format. Team needs -- in terms of positions everyone has neglected until the last minute -- are going to dictate more than any other factor which players go off the board at this stage of the draft. For me, with the need to grab a corner man, a middle infielder and a catcher, I went with Justin Bour, DJ LeMahieu and Brian McCann. Your mileage might vary, but for me, these were the best options remaining on the board when I was again in the barrel with the clock counting down all too quickly.
Rounds 22-25
The final rounds are always a hodgepodge of aging veterans we hope have one more good season in them (R.A. Dickey, Alex Gordon), youngsters potentially on the cusp of breakout campaigns (Taylor Naquin, J.P. Crawford) and closers-in-waiting who might or might not get a chance to shine at some point in 2016 (Jeremy Jeffress, Andrew Miller). You might as well roll the dice because if you're wrong, there are plenty of options waiting for you on the waiver wire.
Howell was jumping for joy after Round 22. "I finally got AJ Reed in a mock draft. This isn't an optimal format for a prospect who may struggle to stay on the field, defensively, but if he gets a regular job in the bigs, he's going to hit the ball hard and far with regularity. He was the first batter picked to my bench, and I can stash him until the injury bug strikes. If he is called up or makes the team, he could be a huge impact."
As is typical for ESPN staff mocks, there was a last-minute catcher run. As Kavanagh said, "I was also happy I waited on catcher. Given that we only use one in this league, getting Stephen Vogt, who could be anywhere from No. 9 to No. 14, at pick No. 219 should return nice value." Russell Martin, Devin Mesoraco and Derek Norris were all selected even later.
There you have it. Our second points league mock draft is in the books, giving you a second chance to look over our picks and pick them apart if you find fault with any of our selections. In the conversation below, feel free to let us know what you would have done differently.
Most of all, keep in mind there's still plenty of time before Opening Day, and a lot can change between now and then. Mocks are a great tool to learn as much as you can about where players are getting picked before the draft that actually counts. So what are you waiting for? Get drafting!