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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Rangers closer Joe Barlow projects as a solid fantasy streamer for Monday's slate. Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          May 16, 2022, 01:26 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Monday's MLB games

          By Todd Zola

          • Monday's slate may have a robust 12 games, but there aren't many solid steaming candidates for fantasy purposes, so it's best to play it conservative and fortify pitching later in the week. In these instances, looking for available closers to pad saves is a safe approach. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Wrigley Field against Wade Miley and the Chicago Cubs. Pirates closer Davis Bednar (46% rostered in ESPN leagues) is a great addition with six saves and 25 strikeouts through 17 innings. In Arlington, the Texas Rangers host the Los Angeles Angels. Joe Barlow (39%) has emerged as the Rangers closer with six saves and 14 punch outs in 11 1/3 frames.

          • While Yoan Moncada has helped the White Sox struggling offense, Chicago's lineup is still sporting a below average wOBA, setting Brad Keller (24%) up as a Monday streamer for the Kansas City Royals. Keller is coming off a rough outing in Arlington, but he's posted four quality starts in his past six efforts.

          • Zach Logue (1%) has provided a welcome boost to an injury-riddled Oakland Athletics rotation. Last time out, Logue fanned six with no walks over seven frames on the road in Detroit. On Monday, he draws a Minnesota Twins lineup scoring the eighth-fewest runs per game over the past week. Logue is a viable spot starter for those willing to roll the dice.

          • It was only a matter of time before the Boston Red Sox lineup got in gear as they've led the major in runs over the past week and now, they head home to a warm Fenway Park. The crux of their offense is clearly unavailable in ESPN leagues, but there are some options to get a piece of a potent offense, including Christian Vazquez (41%), Bobby Dalbec (10%) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (2%). It's also worth checking to see if Enrique Hernandez (67%) was dropped in your league.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday

          Prop of the Day

          Garrett Whitlock strikeouts: Over/Under 5.5 (-108/-118)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Whitlock putting up 3.9 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 22.1% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $51.83.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • THE BAT X projects Whitlock in the 91st percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

          • Whitlock will have the handedness advantage over six opposing hitters in this game.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • THE BAT X projects Whitlock to throw 76 pitches in this game (fourth-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

          • The Astros (19.4 K%, via THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy lineup today.

          • The weather report calls for the fifth-best hitting weather of today's slate.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to left at 12.2 mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.