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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Runs could be hard to find -- from both lineups -- with Sonny Gray on the mound on Monday. AP
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Sep 19, 2022, 05:07 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • A nine-game slate kicks off the penultimate full week of the 2022 campaign. Remember, the league was forced to add a three-day October series for each team to make up for the games lost to the lockout. As such, make sure you know how your league is handling scoring and pickups for that season-ending set.

          • There is an early game on Monday with the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians wrapping up a five-game series in Progressive Field at 1:10 PM ET. When the AL Central foes began the series, the Twins were four games behind the division-leading Guardians. If Minnesota could have won the series, they would still have been within striking distance. However, after Cleveland secured the first three games, Monday's meeting isn't nearly as intriguing as we might have hoped. In any event, it lines up to be a low-scoring affair with Sonny Gray taking the hill for the visitors and Cal Quantrill getting the nod for the hosts. There isn't much fantasy appeal for those looking for spot-starters, but some juice on the "under" could prove profitable as strike zones tend to widen on a getaway Monday.

          • There is a second Monday matinee, this one on the west coast with the Los Angeles Angels entertaining the Seattle Mariners at 4:07 PM ET in a makeup affair. On paper, the Mariners have the softest remaining schedule as they jostle for playoff position with the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. Remember, the top wild-card spot in each league comes with home field for the entire three-game series. Monday's pitching matchup has Logan Gilbert going for Seattle, opposed by Jose Suarez. Suarez (11% rostered in ESPN leagues) has pitched well for a poor Angels team. Even though the Mariners are in the playoff hunt, their offense facing southpaws is only league-average, so Suarez is in play as a streamer. Gilbert had a rough start to the second half, but the Mariner has since righted the ship, including 23 strikeouts (with only four walks) in his 17 September innings. Since the same "wide strike zone" theory applies, backing Gilbert to beat a strikeout prop could be a fun way to spend a Monday afternoon.

          • Wade Miley (7%), Edward Cabrera (46%) and Tyler Wells (13%) are some other streaming candidates to consider. Miley has made only six starts all season, with this being his third since returning from the IL earlier in the month. The Chicago Cubs lefty has fanned 11 in nine September frames, with a chance to build on that against the Miami Marlins. Cabrera is experiencing both command and control issues, but he has the stuff to overcome it -- especially against a beatable Cubs lineup. The Baltimore Orioles' improbable playoff run will likely fall short, but there is still a mathematical chance remaining. Wells checks in as a streamer facing a tame Detroit Tigers lineup in Camden Yards.

          • The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the final game of the evening and then they are back at it on Tuesday with a twin bill. Since it's always wise to target batters scheduled to play a pair, why not get a head start and pick them up for Monday's game as well? Chris Taylor (58%), Trayce Thompson (2%) and Joey Gallo (45%) head the list for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy (48%), Joe Kelly (12%), Corbin Carroll (16%) and Emmanuel Rivera (1%) are the prime Diamondbacks targets.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Merrill Kelly pitching outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-175/+120)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Kelly putting up 14.8 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 32.1% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $49.48.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • This game projects as the third-best pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          • Kelly's fastball velocity has jumped 1 mph this season (92.2 mph) over where it was last season (91.2 mph).

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Dodgers projected offense grades out as the best of the day.

          • Dodger Stadium grades out as the No. 4 park in the game for home runs, via THE BAT X projection system.

          • Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in baseball.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 8 mph in this matchup, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.