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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Aug 6, 2023, 03:04 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Sunday's MLB games

          By Todd Zola

          Sunday's action gets underway at 12:05 PM ET in Progressive Field with Xzavion Curry and the Cleveland Guardians hosting Jesse Scholtens and the Chicago White Sox. The Sunday night ESPN contest features a pair of deadline acquisitions pairing off with Rich Hill and the San Diego Padres hosting Lance Lynn and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

          There are a few streaming options on the final day of the scoring period, with the top two squaring off against each other.

          • Chase Silseth (1.8% rostered) gets a home start when the Los Angeles Angels wrap up a weekend set with the Seattle Mariners. Even after adding Lucas Giolito, the Angels are staying with a six-man rotation, in large part due to how well Silseth has pitched in his two efforts since joining the starting corps. In 10 2/3 innings, the 23-year-old right-hander fanned 14 while walking just two. Last time out, he limited the Atlanta Braves to one run over five frames. The Mariners lineup is far less formidable. Given that Seattle did some deadline tweaking, but for the season they have the second-highest strikeout rate facing righties, along with the 11th-lowest wOBA.

          • Opposing Silseth will be rookie Bryce Miller (32.4%). Miller could be hitting the rookie wall as he's surrendered six runs over each of his last two outings, yielding six homers in those 11 1/3 innings. However, heading into those hiccups, Miller posted a 2.32 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 31 stanzas, covering six starts. He fanned an impressive 31 in that span. Based on his recent performances, there is some risk, but the rankings are designed to temper recency bias. Even so, Silseth is the safer play, though sometimes Sunday calls for risks, putting Miller in play. Miller is also an intriguing play for DFS GPP action.

          • Lately, Alex Wood (2.0%) has been used as a bulk reliever. He's had mixed results, but not starting means he has a better chance at earning a win, though he may not rack up as many innings and strikeouts as a traditional starter. On Sunday, a date with the Oakland Athletics is the main allure, as Wood can generate useful points in limited innings, not to mention that if he's effective, more innings will follow. The Athletics sport the fourth-worst wOBA versus lefthanders with an above average strikeout clip.

          • With one more win, Taijuan Walker (41%) will set a new personal best in that department. He has 12, which was tied with three others for the most in the league heading into Saturday's action. Walker has a solid chance of setting a new career high with a home date against the Kansas City Royals.

          • Texas Rangers starter Andrew Heaney has been historically generous with the long ball, including this season as he's surrendered 19 homers in 107 1/3 innings. The reconstructed Miami Marlins lineup has more power, led by Jake Burger (8.3%) who sports the second-highest average fly ball distance, bettered by only Aaron Judge. Burger, along with Bryan De La Cruz (18.2%) enjoys the platoon edge over Heaney. Jorge Soler (69.1%) could also be available in some 10-team leagues.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Bullpen usage watch for Sunday

          By Todd Zola

          • David Bednar failed to convert a save opportunity for just the second time this season yesterday, paving the way for the Milwaukee Brewers to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 in 10 innings. Bednar was working in back-to back fashion with his 18 pitches on Saturday coming after 14 on Friday night. The chance Bednar appears for three straight days is slim, especially since Pitttsburgh plays Monday, so won't get a natural off day. Colin Holderman is the likely replacement. Holderman gave up two runs in his first outing after the break, but hasn't been scored upon since, hurling eight shutout frames covering eight appearances, with 10 strikeouts and three holds.

          • Devin Williams was the beneficiary of Bednar's misstep as he pitched the top of the 10th, stranding the ghost runner on 14 pitches, fanning two in the process. WIlliams was working with two days of rest, so he's available when the Brewers look to take three of four from the Pirates. Brandon Woodruff will make his first start since April 7.

          • Paul Sewald had yet to appear for the Arizona Diamondbacks, so even though they were down 10-1 to the Minnesota Twins, Sewald took the hill for the first time since being traded and fanned three in the seventh inning, needing just 12 pitches. A dozen throws triggers the yellow flag, but Sewald will have no problem coming in today.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Brandon Woodruff O/U 17.5 pitching outs (+110/-140)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Woodruff putting up 10.9 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 3.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $91.55.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • As far as temperature and humidity go, the third-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

          • The wind projects to be blowing in from left field at 10.8-mph in this game, the second-best of the day for pitchers.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • THE BAT X expects Brandon Woodruff to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 60 pitches.

          • The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

          • Nate Tomlinson projects as a "hitters umpire" and is likely to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

          • THE BAT projects American Family Field as the third-best venue in Major League Baseball for walks.