Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 14, 2023, 04:09 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

The dog days of August continue with a nine-game slate to open the fantasy week. Monday's action gets going at 6:40 PM ET in South Beach with Braxton Garrett and the Miami Marlins entertaining Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros. This will be a great test for Garrett (26.1% rostered) who is enjoying a breakthrough campaign. It's in the books, but if you overlook his May 3 home disaster when the Atlanta Braves tallied 11 times in 4 1/3 innings, Garrett is sporting a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, fully supported with 122 strikeouts in 112 2/3 innings, while issuing just 17 walks. To merit fantasy ace status, Garrett needs to show he can navigate the potent lineups, like Braves and Astros. Since Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez returned in late July, the Astros have averaged the third most runs per game in MLB. Perhaps the risk precludes Garrett's pickup so early in the fantasy week, but he warrants being active in deeper leagues and could be a contrarian DFS hurler.
The highest ranked streaming option is Baltimore Orioles freshman Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has seemingly climbed over the rookie wall with a 2.66 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last four starts, though he's fanned a modest 20 batters with eight walks in those 23 2/3 innings. Still, Rodriguez is showing the ability to get out of jams, unlike earlier in the season when a couple of runners opened the floodgates. On Monday, Rodriguez will toe the rubber in Petco Park. The knee-jerk reaction to facing the San Diego Padres is to avoid it, but after four and a half months, the numbers indicate they're a below average offense facing righties.
Miles Mikolas (22.8%) isn't known for missing bats, though the dozen punchouts he's registered over his past two outings is by far his highest total in consecutive starts. Still, Mikolas is best deployed for innings, run prevention and a chance for a win, all three of which are in play with a home date against the Oakland Athletics. It doesn't hurt that the visitor's lineup has fanned at the third highest level with a right-hander on the hill.
Pitching decisions are always critical, but with just over a quarter of the season remaining, there is less margin of error. Brady Singer (59.5%) is regaining fantasy trust with a 2.94 ERA and 0.86 WHIP since the break. He punched out 31 while issuing only five walks and allowing three homers in that 33 2/3 inning span. Singer is in a favorable spot to maintain the high note with a road affair in Safeco Field when the Kansas City Royals open set with the Seattle Mariners. The hosts fan at a 26.0% clip facing righties, the second highest in MLB. Monday marks the first of six games in Coors Field this week. Despite their woes, the Colorado Rockies still sport the seventh highest home wOBA facing right-handers.
Monday's matchup with Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly is challenging, but picking up some Colorado bats to use the rest of the week in deeper leagues makes sense. Jurickson Profar (8.7%), Ezequiel Tovar (9.0%), Ryan McMahon (29.0%), Brendan Rodgers (10.1%), Elias Diaz (40.6%) and Nolan Jones (7.3%) are the typical top-six in the order, thus are the best options.
On the other side, Coors Field could be the panacea for the Diamondbacks post-break malaise. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (54.4%), Tommy Pham (3.1%), Alek Thomas (.8%) and Jace Peterson (0.3%) are the worthiest considerations.

Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.3	Framber Valdez	L	@MIA	99.4%	-140	8	58%	6.3	2.3	6.2
12.2	Yu Darvish	R	BAL	95.0%	-130	8.5	52%	6.0	2.4	6.0
12.1	Max Fried	L	NYY	96.5%	-235	9	55%	5.8	2.2	5.6
11.8	Max Scherzer	R	LAA	99.4%	-190	9	53%	6.0	3.0	6.7
11.4	Tyler Glasnow	R	@SF	93.3%	-140	8	57%	4.9	1.8	5.8
11.0	Grayson Rodriguez	R	@SD	20.1%	110	8.5	48%	5.5	2.1	5.5
9.8	Logan Gilbert	R	@KC	96.5%	-145	8.5	60%	5.7	2.9	5.4
9.8	Quinn Priester	R	@NYM	1.3%	--	--	57%	5.5	2.2	4.3
9.6	Miles Mikolas	R	OAK	31.6%	-210	8.5	54%	5.7	2.6	4.7
9.3	Braxton Garrett	L	HOU	27.3%	118	8	42%	5.2	2.3	5.0
8.2	JP Sears	L	@STL	8.9%	175	8.5	46%	5.2	2.6	4.7
8.2	Clarke Schmidt	R	@ATL	11.6%	192	9	45%	5.1	2.7	4.8
8.1	Carlos Carrasco	R	PIT	4.6%	--	--	43%	5.0	2.4	4.8
7.9	Brady Singer	R	SEA	63.2%	122	8.5	40%	5.6	3.1	5.3
7.8	Patrick Sandoval	L	@TEX	32.2%	158	9	47%	5.6	3.0	5.0
5.8	Merrill Kelly	R	@COL	89.0%	--	--	54%	5.4	3.9	5.5
3.2	Ryan Walker	R	TB	0.4%	118	8	43%	1.8	0.7	1.7
0.4	Chris Flexen	R	ARI	0.4%	--	--	46%	4.8	4.8	4.0

Bullpen usage watch for Monday

By Todd Zola

After garnering his first save for the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, Paul Sewald collected his second yesterday in the club's come-from-behind win over the San Diego Padres. Previous to this weekend, the last time Sewald appeared was the prior Sunday, but after tossing 22 pitches yesterday, on top of a dozen on Saturday, Sewald's availability for tonight's road date with the Colorado Rockies is in jeopardy. Even with likely roster holes from the abbreviated schedule, it's not risking another Diamondbacks reliever in Coors Field.
Working with six days of rest, Camilo Doval was asked to secure the final out and preserve Logan Webb's 8 2/3 innings masterpiece. Webb retired the first two Texas Rangers batters, but after J.P. Martinez doubled, Doval was summoned. The San Francisco Giants closer induced Ezequiel Duran to hit a grounder towards the shortstop hole. J.P. Crawford fielded it, but his throw on the run to first base was late. An alert Martinez didn't hesitate rounding third and easily scored, sending the game to extras. Doval stayed in to pitch the 10th, but balked in the go-ahead run. However, Patrick Bailey's two-run homer in the bottom of the frame sent the fans home happy, while giving Doval his fourth win. He needed 20 pitches to record four outs, but considering how long it had been between appearances, Doval should be ready tonight when the Giants host the Tampa Bay Rays.
Andres Munoz (48.5% rostered) falls just short of the filter for inclusion in the table, but after appearing both Saturday and Sunday, using a total of 34 pitches, it's worth mentioning he'll probably have Monday off. This is even more relevant with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Kansas City Royals, thus the club tops the list of teams with the best chance to string together some wins. Matt Brash tossed 20 pitches yesterday, but he was working with three days of rest, so Brash could give the club an inning. Justin Topa also appeared yesterday, but only tossed 13 pitches, so he should also be in the late-inning mix. Brash and Topa are not only in play today, but for the entirety of the Royals series.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	8/13	P3	Rest	Strk
Paul Sewald	ARI	58.6%	22	34	0	2
Camilo Doval	SF	91.7%	20	20	0	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Tommy Pham (ARI, LF -- 3%) at Chris Flexen
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 10%) vs. Merrill Kelly
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 29%) vs. Kelly
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 5%) at Flexen
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 9%) vs. Kelly
Jake McCarthy (ARI, RF -- 17%) at Flexen
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 41%) vs. Kelly
Tyler O'Neill (STL, LF -- 18%) vs. JP Sears
Nolan Jones (COL, RF -- 7%) vs. Kelly
Jace Peterson (ARI, 3B -- 0%) at Flexen

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

C.J. Cron (LAA, 1B -- 53%) at Max Scherzer
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF -- 56%) at Scherzer
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 54%) at Sean Manaea
Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 58%) vs. Framber Valdez
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B -- 66%) vs. Grayson Rodriguez
MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 55%) vs. Logan Gilbert
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS -- 75%) vs. Rodriguez
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 65%) at Brady Singer
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 61%) at Yu Darvish
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 89%) vs. Patrick Sandoval

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Prop of the Day

JP Sears O/U 16.5 pitching outs (-125/+100)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Sears putting up 15.2 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 35.7% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $28.70.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

It may be smart to expect worse results for the St. Louis Cardinals offense the rest of the season, given that THE BAT X sees them as them as the seventh-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
The No. 8 ballpark in MLB for suppressing walks, via THE BAT, is Busch Stadium.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The fourth-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.
As far as temperature and humidity go, the third-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.
The wind projects to be blowing out to right field at 10.8-mph in this game, the second-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Because of his huge platoon split, JP Sears will be in a tough position being matched up with seven hitters in the projected offense who bat from the other side today.