Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

May 10, 2025, 12:17 PM

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
11.3	Brady Singer	R	@HOU	57.2%	+120	7.5	58%	5.8	2.4	5.4
11.1	Joe Ryan	R	SF	94.5%	-120	7.5	55%	5.6	2.7	6.4
10.8	Carlos Rodon	L	@ATH	91.4%	-160	9.5	54%	5.6	2.6	6.1
10.5	Ranger Suarez	L	@CLE	27.5%	-125	7.5	52%	5.7	2.6	5.6
10.4	Tylor Megill	R	CHC	59.3%	-160	8.5	57%	5.3	2.1	5.6
10.3	Garrett Crochet	L	@KC	99.8%	-120	7.5	49%	5.5	2.6	6.4
10.2	Corbin Burnes	R	LAD	94.7%	EVEN	9.5	51%	5.7	2.6	5.8
10.2	Logan Webb	R	@MIN	98.5%	EVEN	7.5	45%	6.0	2.8	5.6
9.9	Bowden Francis	R	@SEA	45.3%	+105	8.5	49%	5.2	2.4	5.0
9.5	Shane Smith	R	MIA	15.2%	-110	8.5	48%	5.1	2.2	5.3
9.4	Cole Ragans	L	BOS	97.7%	EVEN	7.5	51%	5.4	2.7	6.3
9.4	Tanner Bibee	R	PHI	74.2%	+105	7.5	48%	5.5	2.7	5.6
8.8	Jack Flaherty	R	TEX	85.4%	-110	7.5	50%	5.6	3.0	5.8
8.8	Edward Cabrera	R	@CWS	2.4%	-110	8.5	52%	5.0	2.3	5.2
8.5	JP Sears	L	NYY	34.9%	+135	9.5	46%	5.4	2.9	5.1
8.4	Jacob deGrom	R	@DET	93.0%	-110	7.5	50%	4.8	2.3	4.7
8.3	Tobias Myers	R	@TB	3.0%	+115	9.5	58%	5.2	2.4	4.2
8.1	Taj Bradley	R	MIL	45.0%	-135	9.5	42%	5.4	2.7	5.0
7.9	Logan Evans	R	TOR	1.7%	-125	8.5	51%	5.3	2.7	4.7
7.4	Kyle Gibson	R	@LAA	0.5%	-150	9.5	59%	5.5	3.3	5.1
7.3	Cade Horton*	R	@NYM	7.2%	+135	8.5	43%	3.7	1.4	3.9
6.9	Andre Pallante	R	@WSH	4.2%	-115	9.5	57%	5.2	2.7	4.2
6.9	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	CIN	11.2%	-145	7.5	42%	4.4	2.2	4.6
6.7	Dustin May	R	@ARI	25.4%	-120	9.5	49%	4.9	2.7	4.6
6.6	AJ Smith-Shawver	R	@PIT	18.4%	-150	8.5	55%	4.8	2.7	4.9
6.3	Andrew Heaney	L	ATL	31.5%	+125	8.5	45%	4.8	2.8	4.6
5.7	Trevor Williams	R	STL	0.7%	-105	9.5	43%	5.1	3.1	4.3
4.1	Jack Kochanowicz	R	BAL	0.6%	+125	9.5	41%	5.2	3.4	3.2
-0.1	Stephen Kolek	R	@COL	4.1%	-205	11.5	52%	4.3	4.8	4.6
-2.2	Bradley Blalock	R	SD	0.0%	+170	11.5	48%	4.8	5.8	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver is coming off one of his best career outings. He tossed seven hitless frames before allowing a single to open the eighth. Smith-Shawver completed eight innings but walked four while fanning just five. Even so, he's in a great spot with a road date against the punchless Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chicago White Sox RHP Shane Smith introduced a changeup into his repertoire and even though he's still getting a feel for the pitch, it has been effective and will only get better. On Saturday, Smith enjoys a home start versus the Miami Marlins and their below average lineup.
In his 2025 debut earlier this week, Philadelphia Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez yielded seven runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The silver lining was six strikeouts. Expect a better effort in his second start, a road affair against the Cleveland Guardians and a lineup with an elevated 24.5% strikeout rate with a lefty in the hill.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

There are a few reasons to avoid Diamondbacks RHP Corbin Burnes. He missed his last start with shoulder inflammation, but he's been cleared for Saturday. More importantly, Burnes' strikeout rate remains in freefall and his sinker velocity is down a tick. Add in a home start against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Burnes lands outside of this weekend's circle of trust.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Saturday

The Baltimore Orioles sport the ninth lowest wOBA in the league but it's hard to envision that lineup remaining a bottom third lineup for much longer. Their ascent could begin on Saturday with a road date with RHP Jack Kochanowicz and the Los Angeles Angels. Kochanowicz has fanned only 20 in 37 1/3 stanzas while allowing seven homers. Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad all line up for productive games.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Butler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) has increased from last season to this, rising from 14.6% to 17.9%.

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.91 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on fly balls this year. Compare his 96.7-mph average to last seasons 94.1-mph EV.

Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.26 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme fly ball batters like Manzardo are generally more successful against extreme ground ball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Carlos Rodon | OVER 2.5 ER (+115)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.98 EV
One reason to bet this: Rodon is an extreme fly ball pitcher (40.8% FB% via my projections) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors today.

Cole Ragans | OVER 7.5 K (-100)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.92 EV
One reason to bet this: Ragans's 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starters.

Dustin May | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.67 EV
One reason to bet this: The Arizona Diamondbacks (20.4 K% (according to my projections) project to have the fifth-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams today.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Marlins @ White Sox | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $5.48 EV

Reds @ Astros | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $5.33 EV

Padres @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 62% chance of RUN with a $4.75 EV