Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN's Joe Kaiser, Kyle Soppe and Matthew Wittyngham.
Heading into the season, the big hang-up with Jabari Parker's game was his lack of peripheral stats. We knew he could score, hit the glass a bit and post a quality FG%, but he chipped in little else. However, this season we have seen a dramatic leap in 3-point attempts (0.5 3-FGA to 3.5 3-FGA) and 3-point success (25.7 3-FG% to 41.4 3-FG%). He is averaging 1.4 made 3s per game this season and 2.4 made 3s per game over his first five January games. Going forward, to what extent can fantasy owners bank on his 3-point shooting?
Joe Kaiser: I have completely changed my tune on Parker this season after seeing him expand his game as effectively as any young player has in quite some time. The thing about Parker is that he always had a sweet midrange game, and many players like that are able to improve their range and become a force behind the 3-point arc in the NBA. It doesn't always happen -- DeMar DeRozan is example 1A of a college player with a great midrange game who never expanded it beyond the arc -- but in the case of Parker, it has been a natural progression that beautifully complements the rest of his game. There aren't many big, athletic forwards who can run the floor, score and shoot the 3 quite as Parker is doing in his third NBA season, and I expect him to continue to make about 1.5 3s per game over the second half of 2016-17.
Kyle Soppe: This is a weird situation that very much deserves attention from fantasy owners as 14.5 percent (according to our Player Rater) of Parker's value this season has come from his ability to knock down 3-pointers. How am I viewing this? The number of attempts should remain reasonably stable, but the percentage will regress.
Parker started adding range to his game in the second half of last season, nearly a direct correlation to when Jason Kidd decided to try out Giannis Antetokounmpo at the point. The Greek Freak is a great player, but his lack of shooting touch (he is shooting just 34.6 percent this season from eight-plus feet away from the basket) has created a need for Parker to expand his game. Yes, the Bucks have Tony Snell and Mirza Teletovic to stretch the floor ... but yeah, exactly.
Parker is far-and-away the best Bucks player with reliable range, so I expect him to continue to fire away. That said, he has made 33 of his 67 attempts over his last 17 games (49.3 percent) -- for the record, Stephen Curry has made 27 of his last 67 3-point attempts -- after converting on 32.8 percent of his triples through 20 games. From a percentage standpoint, Parker will end up closer to the latter, but a big man who can shoot in the low-to-mid 30s from deep is very much a strong fantasy option in all formats.
Matthew Wittyngham: I think there is a very high chance he is going to continue to shoot 3s. At what rate is yet to be seen, as it is a new part of his game. The big thing is that the Bucks don't necessarily have a player who can stretch the floor efficiently. Snell and Teletovic both average about five 3-point attempts a game, but both shoot below 40 percent from the field. Antetokounmpo is not an efficient jump-shooter yet, shooting 35 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers and 36 percent on pull-ups. Parker is shooting 41 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts and 50 percent on pull-up 3s.
Milwaukee's schedule is helpful, as they play teams like Indiana (10.2 3s allowed per game), Brooklyn (10.2) and Charlotte (10.7) multiple times, Parker has the ability to emerge as a deep-ball threat.