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Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Thursday

Tim Hardaway Jr. could see an increase in production Thursday night against the Knicks with Luka Doncic out. Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images

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New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.


What you need to know for Thursday's games

Wednesday featured several competitive games and strong showings from some emergent young players, like Houston Rockets rookie Cam Whitmore (1.4% rostered in ESPN leagues). Whitmore logged a career-high 33 minutes to notch his fifth-straight game scoring in double figures. It might not be time to roster Whitmore universally, but interest is growing.

We already know Immanuel Quickley (58.7%) is shining since joining the Toronto Raptors, including last night's 25-point showing, although RJ Barrett merits mention as well. The Raptors are unleashing Barrett as a slasher and shooter in ways New York might have overlooked, with the results proving impressive. Barrett, meanwhile, is a free agent in a third of ESPN leagues.

Thursday's slate tips early in the afternoon with a 2 p.m. ET start featuring the Brooklyn Nets facing the Cleveland Cavaliers in Paris. You'll want to get lineups set before this international game gets going. The injury report reveals Darius Garland and Evan Mobley remain sidelined for Cleveland with respective injuries, vaulting Caris LeVert (54.8%) into a meaningful role as a key playmaker. For those in deeper leagues, Sam Merrill (0.4%) has averaged 14.5 points over the past week as a shooting specialist.

The evening portion begins with a marquee matchup in Wisconsin, as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Boston Celtics. Given the Celtics overtime victory over the Timberwolves last night, the team's injury report won't surface until later on Thursday, but we can bank on Jrue Holiday serving a big role in his return to Milwaukee. This contest claims the highest total of the day at 242.5 points, making it an attractive climate for both DFS stacks and player props.

Another meaningful return on the slate features Jalen Brunson back in Dallas to take on the Mavericks. The key streaming candidate from the Knicks remains Isaiah Hartenstein (39.5%), who has been among the league leaders in rebounds, blocks, and steals the past two weeks. Dallas won't have superstar Luka Doncic in the lineup due to an ankle injury, which makes Kyrie Irving a key building block in DFS tournaments. We also highlight a shooting specialist and a two-way glue guy from Dallas' short-handed roster in the streaming section.

Thursday's Stream Team

This segment nominates three key streaming options ahead of that day's action. A streamer, by our standards, is a player available in at least half of ESPN men's basketball leagues.

Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C, New York Knicks (39.5%)

Hartenstein is the most-added player in ESPN leagues over the past week and is finally getting some attention for his uniquely valuable production as a rebounder and rim protector for the Knicks. This should be a productive matchup for Hartenstein against a depleted Dallas frontcourt.

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (21.3%)

Hardaway is one of the true high-volume shooting forces in the league. He is in a strong spot against New York given the absence of Doncic. There is real potential for Hardaway to approach or surpass 10 3-point attempts in a game that will demand additional scoring and spacing from Dallas.

Dennis Smith Jr., PG, Brooklyn Nets (7.3%)

It's tough to read if Smith's recent surge in minutes and playmaking duties are temporary or a real trend, but during a smaller Thursday slate his impressive assist and steal rates prove meaningful among the free agent crowd.

Derrick Jones Jr., SF, Dallas Mavericks (5.9%)

The Mavericks won't have Dereck Lively II or Maxi Kleber in the rotation this evening, which makes Jones an even more important presence on the glass and on defense. A recent double-double showing suggests Jones' ceiling is higher for Thursday night, given Dallas' short-handed frontcourt.

Sam Merrill, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers (0.4%)

With Garland's backcourt creation and scoring absent, Merrill has helped contribute complementary perimeter spacing with his volume-driven shooting profile. He has averaged nearly four made 3-pointers over the past four games.


Projections and Injury Reports

Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.


Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers
2 p.m. Accor Arena, Paris, France


BPI Projection: Cavaliers in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT - Back); Day'Ron Sharpe, (OUT - Knee)
Cavaliers: Darius Garland, (OUT - Jaw); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle); Evan Mobley, (OUT - Knee)

Nets projections:

Cavaliers projections:

  • Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG: 49.1 FPTS (27.7 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.4 ast, 3.3 3PM)

  • Jarrett Allen, C: 34.4 FPTS (15.6 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.3 ast)

  • Max Strus, SG/SF: 30.2 FPTS (14.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.9 3PM)

  • Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 26.4 FPTS (13.7 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Isaac Okoro, SG/SF: 17.4 FPTS (9.1 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.5 ast)

  • Georges Niang, PF: 15.1 FPTS (8.2 pts, 3.0 reb, 0.9 ast)

  • Sam Merrill, SG: 14.7 FPTS (7.7 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.1 ast, 2.0 3PM)


Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee


BPI Projection: Celtics in the highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD - Knee)
Bucks: Cameron Payne, (GTD - Concussion)

Celtics projections:

Bucks projections:


Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City


BPI Projection: Thunder in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:

Blazers: Deandre Ayton, (GTD - Knee); Jabari Walker, (GTD - Knee); Moses Brown, (OUT - Wrist); Robert Williams III, (OUT - Knee)
Thunder: Davis Bertans, (GTD - Illness); Olivier Sarr, (GTD - Illness)

Blazers projections:

Thunder projections:


New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas


BPI Projection: Knicks in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Knicks: Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle)
Mavericks: Dereck Lively II, (GTD - Ankle); Grant Williams, (GTD - Ankle); Maxi Kleber, (GTD - Toe); Dante Exum, (OUT - Heel); Luka Doncic, (OUT - Ankle)

Knicks projections:

Mavericks projections:


Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
10 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles


BPI Projection: Suns in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT - Knee)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Ankle); Cam Reddish, (GTD - Face); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Rui Hachimura, (GTD - Calf); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee)

Suns projections:

  • Kevin Durant, SF/PF: 48.2 FPTS (28.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 6.4 ast)

  • Devin Booker, PG/SG/PF: 46.5 FPTS (27.2 pts, 5.3 reb, 6.9 ast, 2.1 3PM)

  • Bradley Beal, PG/SG: 32.8 FPTS (19.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.9 ast)

  • Jusuf Nurkic, C: 30.0 FPTS (13.1 pts, 10.1 reb, 3.2 ast)

  • Grayson Allen, SG: 24.5 FPTS (11.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Eric Gordon, SG/SF: 17.6 FPTS (9.0 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Josh Okogie, SG/SF: 11.9 FPTS (5.7 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.1 ast)

Lakers projections: