Welcome back to another entertaining fantasy basketball marathon. In the Forecaster, we seek to prepare you for each week in fantasy basketball with appraisals of specific emerging assets and notable team trends. We also canvas the schedule each week with an eye on identifying matchups and metrics we can leverage toward successful lineup strategies and roster management.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff learned this past summer that the sun rises in the east. When it comes to fantasy basketball, however, there is a rising Sun in the west, as Phoenix's Devin Booker is an ascendant playmaker. The second-year Kentucky product doesn't even turn 20 until later this month but is already emerging as a special NBA commodity.
If you haven't drafted yet -- I still have a few drafts over the weekend and into the first week of the season -- securing shares of Booker is highly encouraged. Booker is leading the NBA in scoring this preseason at 21.5 points per game in just 25.3 minutes. Some encouraging team trends support his undeniable breakout potential, as the Suns lead the NBA in pace this preseason, and we're seeing increased drive rates and free throw production from Booker (he's hitting an astounding 95.7 percent of his free throws in the preseason).
With elite upside in points, 3-pointers, free throw rate and steals, Booker is one of my favorite emergent assets in this imaginary basketball game we enjoy so much.
It must be a Western Conference trend among second-year guards, because we also find star potential in D'Angelo Russell of the Lakers. Coach Luke Walton's Warriors -- er, Lakers -- are mimicking Golden State's up-tempo scheme this exhibition season. Given the awesome success Walton enjoyed as the substitute head coach last season for the Warriors, it's fitting to see the Lakers ranked just behind the Warriors this preseason at fourth in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game and seventh in the league in pace at 103.75 possessions per 48 minutes. Often in the doghouse and mired in former Lakers coach Byron Scott's stodgy old-school scheme, Russell is now poised to shine.
Russell is ninth in the preseason in scoring and is lofting 6.6 3-pointers per game -- fourth most in the league -- thanks to the rare play-making freedom Walton is affording him. With rich potential in steals, dimes and 3-pointers, Russell is a steal as a mid-round pick. Loading up on shares of Booker -- going 52nd on average in ESPN drafts -- and Russell (55th), could prove pivotal and profitable in both season-long and daily fantasy competition this season.
After perusing this abbreviated first week of the NBA schedule in the downloadable forecaster chart below, check out our "trendspotting" notes from the preseason below, as we delve into several rising players and intriguing new schemes.
Access the downloadable forecaster chart PDF here
Matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Ratings roundup
We suggest you take our ratings system as merely subtle guidance this week, as it's influenced by last year's data and will soon populate with more accurate information as this season's sample develops.
What we can glean from this opening week is the Oklahoma City Thunder are well-positioned against three up-tempo opponents with serious defensive flaws, based on last season's metrics. The San Antonio Spurs are the lone four-game team this week, so make note of their full weekend slate if you plan on maximizing games played in head-to-head weekly formats.
The New York Knicks face a particularly unfavorable stretch in a two-game slate against sound defensive teams based on last season's data, while the Chicago Bulls are also in a compromised setup, given they net just two games and face capable defensive foes. This doesn't mean we should avoid using our stars on these rosters, just that these aren't ideal teams to identify for streaming or maximizing games.
Specialists to target early
While I'm a huge fan of sourcing players with diverse statistical skill sets, it's also imperative to consider the resourceful contributions of specialists in roto games. It's fine to target a few players who only contribute in one or two categories, as long as they provide differentiating rates in those elements. Whether it's shooting, boards or blocks, we need single-stat mavens, just like we rely on superstars, to deliver winning fantasy rosters.
With this in mind, which widely available players could offer distinctly helpful contributions based on preseason results?
As for shooting experts, Eric Gordon of the Houston Rockets is lofting 5.5 3-pointers per game in just 20.5 minutes of exposure, suggesting he could offer top-10 overall production from deep as the complementary combo guard alongside the bearded one, James Harden. Reasonably priced shares of Gordon against the pace-driven Lakers on Wednesday night could prove particularly productive in daily fantasy.
For those seeking some out-of-position support from beyond, the Charlotte Hornets' Frank Kaminsky III shot 37.7 from 3-point range over the last 22 games last season and is eighth in the league with six attempts per game this preseason. With Al Jefferson in Indiana, Kaminsky's usage rate and shooting freedom should surge this season.
Blocks are among the scarcest of stats, so finding a reliable source for the end of your roster can prove really helpful, which is why I dig Bismack Biyombo of the Magic. The defensive stalwart is third in both blocks per game and boards and earned sleeper status, given his rare rates in these helpful categories. The Rockets' Clint Capela is another name of note for help in blocks and on the glass.
For those seeking an assist in the assists department, the New Orleans Pelicans' Tim Frazier is third behind only Harden and Chris Paul in dimes per game this preseason and should earn meaningful minutes to start the season in a depleted New Orleans backcourt. With Michael Carter-Williams shipped down I-94 to Chicago, Milwaukee's Matthew Dellavedova is impressively sixth in the league in assists per game in the preseason.
Team trendspotting
We've already celebrated the added value Walton and D'Antoni offer their respective NBA teams, but some significant strategic shifts are also underway in two under-the-radar markets.
Brooklyn bombers
It's no surprise to see the space-and-pace Rockets leading the league this preseason in 3-point attempts per game in D'Antoni's "seven-seconds-or-less" offensive scheme, but it is unanticipated to find coach Kenny Atkinson's Brooklyn Nets second with 33.7 attempts from beyond in the exhibition season.
The Nets are actually running at a faster pace than even Houston, as only the Suns have a higher pace -- the rate of team possessions per 48 minutes -- than Brooklyn this preseason. Loading up against the Nets could be fun this season in DFS and in season-long play, while getting cheap looks at Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Bojan Bogdanovic and Trevor Booker are fine angles for cheap production.
Memphis movement
Coach David Fizdale is bringing 3-point shooting and increased pace to Memphis, a team that was 28th in pace and 26th in attempts from beyond the arc last season. The Grizzlies are sixth in the league in attempts from beyond the arc and 11th in pace this preseason. I advise looking into wingman James Ennis while he's still widely available, as his 3-and-D skill set matches this new scheme well.
Fantasy Freshmen
The debut of Philly's Joel Embiid is what the world needs. Or it's just what makes me and other Sixers fans happy, either way; it will prove riveting to see how the 76ers find time for their talented, but murky, frontcourt rotation. I particularly like the shooting and scoring help Buddy Hield could immediately offer, while Kris Dunn ranks in the top 20 in steals in the preseason. For more on this new class of talent, John Cregan's feature on rookies offers helpful insights into the top rookies for fantasy purposes.