The Denver Nuggets' Nikola Jokic earned tons of hype this offseason as a potential breakout candidate. In a near-upset against the United States in the Olympics this past August, Jokic dazzled and dominated en route to 25 points on 11-for-15 shooting. That marquee performance helped push his stock to new heights.
A lofty ranking and Jokic's inclusion on sleeper lists throughout the industry propelled an average draft position of 49th overall in ESPN drafts this fall. The results so far this season, however, have been disappointing. Jokic is averaging just 23 minutes per game -- only a slight bump from his rookie rate of 21.7 minutes, and well shy of the exposure we expected and projected this season.
It's still early, so we should hold firm to shares of Jokic. The talent is still very real, even if the opportunity to capitalize has yet to materialize. There is a breakout brewing in Denver, though.It just happens to be with another member of the Nuggets' frontcourt. Center Jusuf Nurkic ranks eighth in the NBA in rebounding chances per game with 18.4 (chances are defined as being within 3.5 feet of an available board). This rich rate is higher than the likes of Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin and DeMarcus Cousins.
Tied for sixth in blocks and in the top 15 in rebounds per game, Nurkic is thriving thanks to 28.4 minutes per game, a sizable leap from the 17.1 minutes he averaged last season for the Nuggets. Nurkic is still available in nearly a quarter of ESPN leagues as a free agent and can likely still be acquired at a relatively inexpensive price in trade talks. With a high floor developing based on steady minutes and rewarding rebounding opportunities, and playing for a team that ranks fifth in the league in pace (104.1 possessions per 48 minutes), Nurkic appears to be the breakout asset we envisioned Jokic would become.
Since Nurkic is likely rostered in most competitive fantasy leagues by this point, I'll also endorse the Suns' Tyson Chandler as another potential elite rebounding resource. Owned in just shy of 25 percent of ESPN leagues as of Friday afternoon, Chandler ranks third in the NBA in rebounds per game. He's also third in the league with 22.2 rebounding chances per game. The Suns are even faster than the Nuggets, as they rank third in the league in pace (104.6), so we can expect this rich opportunity rate on the glass to continue for the under-the-radar veteran.
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Matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Ratings roundup
Not that they need much help to produce prolific box scores, but the Warriors are in a great position for the coming week with three of their four games at home and with all of their opponents proving friendly in regards to pace and defensive rating. We have to like the Trail Blazers' schedule, as well, as they play a series of up-tempo Western foes. The Pacers have struggled a bit with their new-look roster and scheme, although it's inviting to consider two matchups with the 76ers on the week.
As for tougher setups during the upcoming slate, shares of the Mavericks and Bucks are troubling in weekly formats given they play just two games apiece. If you have heavy shares of either team, it makes sense to supplement them with some of the teams with full weekend schedules, such as the Suns, Timberwolves and Nuggets.
Driving Success
I like to look at drives per game as an indicator of players with a rewarding and ball-dominant role. We see superstars like Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard ranked first and second in drives per game, for example. A quick look at the early-season drive rates has the name Dion Waiters jumping out at us. The Heat guard ranks tenth in the league in drives per game.
With nearly 36 minutes per game and freedom to crash the lane in the wake of Dwyane Wade's departure, Waiters has become a helpful utility player for fantasy purposes so far this season. Even if efficiency escapes his game -- he's shooting only 36.5 percent from the field --13 field goals per game and 10.8 drives helps fuel his fantasy value.
I also like the Mavericks' J.J. Barea, ranked fifth in the league and just behind the Rockets' James Harden, with 12 drives per game. As the leader of the Mavericks' second unit and a key complementary scoring option, Barea is playing more than 30 minutes per game and can help in steals, assists and 3-pointers this season.
Elite Efficiency
The Warriors' Kevin Durant has always proven to be productive on a per-touch basis. This season, Durant ranks fourth in the league with .533 points per touch. It's encouraging to see Minnesota's Andrew Wiggins become a per-touch peer of Durant's, as he's leading the league with .568 points per touch. This efficiency has been achieved via the combination of his strong free throw rate -- Wiggins ranks 12th overall in total attempts from the stripe -- and some awesome post metrics. Wiggins is averaging a very "big-man-like" 1.57 points per touch in the post.
Among other efficient starts to the season, the Sacramento Kings' Rudy Gay ranks 11th with .431 points per touch. A recent roundtable of ESPN NBA Insiders praised Gay's great start to the season. Tom Haberstroh noted that Gay has proven "more active defensively (six blocks) than usual and getting to the line twice as often as he did last season."
The Suns' TJ Warren is also enjoying a proficient rate of .415 points per touch, good for 15th in the league. Warren is among the most surprising early breakout candidates and is still available in more than 30 percent of ESPN leagues. Averaging 36 minutes and given rare offensive freedom for the up-tempo Suns, Warren could actually sustain his current pace for around 20 points per game this season.
Touch Trends
The 76ers' Sergio Rodriguez is third in the NBA in frontcourt touches per game, behind only the Celtics' Isaiah Thomas and Thunder's Westbrook. As long as Jerryd Bayless remains sidelined, Rodriguez is a fine resource for dimes and 3-pointers.
George Hill has been stellar for the Jazz so far since coming over in a trade this past summer. This success is in part buoyed by Hill averaging 70.2 frontcourt touches per game, 14th in the league and ahead of the likes of ball-dominant assets like LeBron James and Rajon Rondo.