With the Indianapolis Colts unable to find a suitable match for a Jonathan Taylor trade, the team instead kept the star running back on the physically unable to perform list, rendering him ineligible to play through at least the conclusion of Week 4 -- regardless of what team he's on.
Now, fantasy managers have to deal with the bad news that they'll be without what would've been a prospective first-round pick for the opening month of the season. On top of that, this also greatly increases the chance that Taylor will miss additional time, either due to the team failing to find a suitable trade for him by then and keeping him sidelined or by his opting not to play while still mired in his contract dispute.
In short, if we had once feared Taylor's situation could ultimately morph into the worst-case scenario that became Le'Veon Bell's 2018, when he sat out the entire season seeking a new deal, this development heightens that possibility.
To be clear: Fantasy managers drafting Taylor should now account for his being available for a maximum of 13 regular-season games, one of which might be the frequently unused Week 18.
He reportedly is healthy enough to appear in that many, but even in the best-case scenario, a game-limited Taylor falls clearly outside the first round, and frankly outside what was my second-round valuation to what is at best borderline top-50 value overall.
He's now one of the riskiest picks on draft boards, at least among name-brand players. I would probably now consider him only in a similar range to borderline-or-outside-the-top-20 running backs such as Rachaad White or James Cook, and even those two seem like picks with more tantalizing upside.
Additionally, remember that even in the event of a trade that lands Taylor into a starting role in another team's backfield come Week 5, he could need some time to adapt to the playbook, meaning he might not be delivering meaningful fantasy production until close to Halloween.
Yes, Christian McCaffrey, for a notable recent example, quickly adapted to his new surroundings after a mid-2022 trade to the San Francisco 49ers, but that's not always the case. Tuck it away if comparing Taylor to a lower-ceiling running back with a similar valuation at the draft table.
As for the Colts, they're in a precarious position themselves at running back, with Deon Jackson and Evan Hull effectively their only two healthy players at the position. Zack Moss, who had forearm surgery earlier this month, is questionable at best for the start of the season, although he'd shape up as the likeliest of the in-house options to absorb a majority of the starts if Taylor's Colts career is done.
Moss is now a worthwhile final-round, standard-league dart throw with the greater opportunity, although the Colts' Week 1 starting running back might not yet be on the team's roster.