Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Seattle Seahawks). The healthy returns of his top two receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, propelled Stafford to a season-best 24.76 fantasy point total in Week 8 and reestablished him as one of the more appealing matchups candidates. Keep this in mind: Stafford has averaged 18.1 fantasy points in games in which both Kupp and Nacua have played at least half the offensive snaps the past two seasons but just 10.6 in games in which one or both fell short of that playing time threshold. While the Seahawks have had their moments defensively this season, on the whole they've been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks. The past five they have faced averaged 20.1 fantasy points, thanks to the third-most points per pass attempt (0.57).
Others to like: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (at Baltimore Ravens); Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (versus Indianapolis Colts).
Matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Buffalo Bills). For all the excitement surrounding his healthy return in Week 8, Tagovailoa's next assignment represents what has historically been one of his toughest matchups. Tagovailoa has averaged only 10.9 fantasy points per game in eight previous meetings with the Bills (exceeding 14 just three times), and he exited his most recent game against them with his third documented concussion since entering the NFL. The Bills have been every bit as tough against quarterbacks this season as they have been against Tagovailoa himself since 2020, holding the position to 13.4 fantasy points per game (fifth fewest). Lamar Jackson (23.64 points, Week 4), the league's current top scorer, is the only quarterback to exceed 18 points against the Bills.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Las Vegas Raiders). Although a complete backfield takeover by Brown hasn't happened yet, he has edged ahead of Zack Moss in the pecking order over the past five weeks. During that time, Brown has played 48% of the Bengals' offensive snaps, handled 61% of the backfield's rushing attempts and scored 72.7 fantasy points, comparing favorably with Zack Moss' 55%, 39% and 41.4. Brown also has seven explosive runs (10-plus-yard gains) to Moss' two and 14 runs that Next Gen Stats clocked at 15-plus mph to Moss' three. That sets Brown up nicely for this matchup, against a Raiders defense that has surrendered a 15-point game to a running back in seven of eight weeks.
Others to like: Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (versus New England Patriots); D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (at Arizona Cardinals).
Matchup to avoid: J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers (at Cleveland Browns). After a sizzling start, one that earned him a larger role in the offense, Dobbins has cooled statistically. In his past five games, he has only seven explosive runs (tied for 22nd in the league), has been stuffed at or behind the line 19 times (tied for third most) and has rushed for 64 yards beneath expectation per Next Gen Stats (worst in the league). He's still likely to absorb another 17-touch workload -- he has had at least that many in six consecutive games -- but might not experience much success against a Browns defense that has allowed only one game greater than 15 fantasy points to a running back all season. In the past three weeks alone, the Browns held Saquon Barkley to 7.4 points (Week 6) and Derrick Henry to 14.7 (Week 8).
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Josh Downs, Colts (at Vikings). The Vikings have earned a good defensive reputation for their play thus far -- they're the No. 3 fantasy defense and are tied for second with 15 takeaways -- but one aspect in which they've struggled is containing wide receivers. They've afforded nine outings of 15-plus fantasy points to the position, seven of them in the past five weeks alone, and in those past five weeks their 1.95 points-per-target mark is third highest in the league. Downs' fantasy stock got a boost with the Colts' decision to switch from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco at quarterback, with the latter more likely to effectively deliver his receivers the ball. Downs has a team-leading 81.1 points and 25.9% target share over the past five weeks, making him the wide receiver you'll most want.
Others to like: Courtland Sutton, Broncos (at Ravens); Ladd McConkey, Chargers (at Browns).
Matchup to avoid: Zay Flowers, Ravens (versus Broncos). Diontae Johnson's arrival will have an adverse impact on Flowers' target share, though Johnson might be eased in this week with the effects more noticeable in the coming weeks. Still, Flowers has as many games with 12 targets as he does games with two or fewer in the past five weeks (two each), and he has played almost entirely into the hands of his matchups in 2024. He totaled 9.6 fantasy points on 12 targets against the Kansas City Chiefs and Bills, both bottom-eight wide receiver matchups, which is also where the Broncos place. Thanks mostly to the excellent play of cornerback Pat Surtain II, the Broncos have held opposing WR1s to a league-low 7.9 points per game.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (at Green Bay Packers). A candidate for fantasy football bust of the year -- remember he was drafted 19 spots earlier than the aforementioned Richardson and has scored 17.3 fewer fantasy points -- LaPorta at least is coming off season bests with his 13.8 fantasy points and six targets in Week 8. He'll likely be needed to play a larger role in this critical division matchup, as the Packers have been a far tougher defense against wide receivers than tight ends. In the past four weeks, four tight ends have scored in double digits, all of them exceeding their seasonal averages by at least three points.
Matchup to avoid: Tucker Kraft, Packers (versus Lions). Across the field, Kraft faces a defense that has been much tougher against tight ends. Only one has scored in double digits against the Lions -- relatively unknown AJ Barner (10.7, Week 4) -- while notable tight ends such as Cade Otton (minus-0.4, Week 2), Trey McBride (5.5, Week 3) and Jake Ferguson (4.1, Week 6) were held quiet by the defense. Whether Jordan Love (groin) is able to play has a bearing on this matchup, as Kraft had two of his worst games of 2024 with Malik Willis under center, scoring a combined 6.0 points on five targets in Weeks 2 and 3, but this is a matchup to avoid wherever possible.