Caitlin Clark is the biggest story in the WNBA this season. After rewriting the NCAA record books and leading the Iowa Hawkeyes to back-to-back national championship appearances in the past two years, Clark has electrified the WNBA. Everything from the WNBA draft to nearly every game she has played has set viewership high marks. Discussions about Clark and her acclimation to the league, or her status for Olympic play, have dominated the airwaves.
Clark opened the season with the fourth-shortest odds to win WNBA MVP as a rookie and she is currently the runaway favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award (-700 at ESPN BET.
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But ... quietly ... it's not at all clear that Clark has been the best rookie.
And as the season progresses, it has been Clark's college rival Angel Reese who seems to be most rapidly acclimating to the WNBA game and turning in increasingly dominant performances. Let's explore.
Rookie of the Year
Leader: Caitlin Clark (-700)
In the hunt: Cameron Brink (+825), Angel Reese (+1000)
Longshots of interest: Kamilla Cardoso (+4000), Rickea Jackson (+5000), Aaliyah Edwards (+7500)
Clark is leading all rookies with 15.6 PPG, ranks second in the WNBA in total 3-pointers made (37) and fourth (leading all rookies) with 6.0 APG. She has also contributed on defense with 4.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG and 0.9 BPG. On the downside, she is struggling with her shot at only 36.7 FG% and 32.2 3P%, low marks for such a volume scorer, and ranks last in the WNBA with 5.5 TO per game. Clark's 77 turnovers are a whopping 24 more than second-highest player, Alyssa Thomas (53).
Reese, on the other hand, is the only rookie in the top-5 in two of the major statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game). Her 9.6 RPG and 1.9 SPG both rank fifth in the league, putting Reese in elite company alongside MVP candidates A'Ja Wilson (PPG, RPG, SPG, BPG), Napheesa Collier (PPG, RPG, SPG), Alyssa Thomas (APG, RPG) and Arike Ogunbowale (PPG, SPG) as the only players in the top-5 in at least two major categories. Reese leads the WNBA in offensive rebounds by a huge margin, and the 15-board gap between Reese's 52 offensive rebounds and second-place Ezi Magbegor's 37 is larger than the gap between second and 12th-place Breanna Stewart's 24.
Reese has also struggled with her efficiency, shooting 38.5% from the field, but has shown signs of late she is settling in as a scorer. She has scored in double figures in nine of her 11 games, and in her past two outings made 13-of-20 attempts for her first two WNBA games over 50% shooting. She is decimal points from averaging a double-double with 12.4 PPG and 9.6 RPG and has double-doubles in four straight games.
Clark has had huge performances, dropping 30 points with 6 assists, 5 boards, 3 steals and 3 blocks against the Sparks in late May, then topping that with 30 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals in a win over the Mystics this week. But she has struggled against elite competition, with two games of 10-points or less against the Liberty, one against the Aces and another one against the Sun. Reese is averaging almost a double-double in two games against the Liberty (13.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG) and is coming off her finest game as a pro with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 2 steals against the Sun.
Both Clark and Reese have already become impact starters and team leaders on their squads as rookies. The Fever did defeat the Sky head-to-head and have only one fewer win against three more defeats, but scoring margin is typically the better predictor than record for team caliber and potential for postseason success. Neither the Sky nor the Fever appear poised to make the playoffs, but the Sky are closer. While Clark's Fever rank last in the WNBA in scoring margin at -12.3 PPG, Reese's Sky have been more competitive with a -1.5 PPG margin that ranks sixth in the league.
The Rookie of the Year race isn't between just Clark and Reese. Brink, the No. 2 overall pick, actually has the second-shortest odds to win the award (+825) behind Clark. She has shown dominance as a defender, and her 2.8 BPG leads all rookies and ranks second in the WNBA. Brink also has a double-double against the Wings, another game with 15 points and nine boards against the Fever, and a 21-point effort with three blocks against the Wings.
Cardoso (+4000) just returned from injury and has shown definite double-double upside even as she plays her way into shape. Jackson (+5000) and Edwards (+6600) have also had strong starts to their career and round out the top 6 in the Rookie of the Year odds.
But, given the odds versus the level of production on the court, I think Reese at +1000 has the most futures value in this category. It is rare to find a player with 10-to-1 odds with such a legitimate case to actually be the leading candidate.
WNBA championship winner
Leaders: Las Vegas Aces (+110), New York Liberty (+185)
In the Hunt: Connecticut Sun (+700), Minnesota Lynx (+1300), Seattle Storm (+1500)
The Aces entered the season as clear favorites (+115) to win their third straight championship, and despite winning only five of their first 10 games, they remain the favorites at +110. A'ja Wilson is off to the best start of her career (more on this below), but the Aces have clearly missed injured point guard Chelsea Gray.
Gray injured her lower leg in the WNBA Finals last season, and has yet to return to the court. There is no clear timetable for her return, but she was named to the US National Olympic team that plays this summer and she reportedly will return before the Olympic Break in mid-July. This suggests she should be back for the second half of the WNBA season, which is crucial for the Aces. Gray averaged 15.3 PPG, 7.3 APG and 4.0 RPG last season, and as the floor general she makes life easier for Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young as part of their monster starting unit.
The Liberty have also slightly improved their championship odds since entering the season at +230 to win, and their first month supports the improvement. They have the second-best record in the WNBA at 11-2 and the second-best scoring margin at +9.9, and have essentially picked up this season where they left off last. After adding former MVPs Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones last offseason, the Liberty went to the WNBA Finals before losing to the Aces. They appear set for a similar run this season.
The Sun have the best record in the league at 11-1 and the third-best scoring differential at +9.7. They win with the best defense in the WNBA, and an offense led by MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas and veteran scorer extraordinaire DeWanna Bonner. Young guard DiJonai Carrington is in the midst of a breakout season as well.
The Lynx have the third-best record (9-3) and best scoring margin (+10.7 PPG) in the league, establishing themselves as legitimate contenders as well. Collier has been dominant, averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game, and she's gotten a lot of offensive support from Kayla McBride to give the Lynx a scoring punch. The Lynx already have victories over both he Aces and the Liberty this season, and lost their game to the Sun in Connecticut by only one point.
Finally, the Storm have shown they can beat any team this season ... except the Lynx. Three of their four losses this season have come against the Lynx, with the fourth loss against the Liberty in New York. The Storm won their only game against the Aces by 13 points in Vegas. They won the offseason, bringing in former MVP Nneka Ogwumike and All Star Skylar Diggins-Smith to play with fellow star Jewell Loyd. Ezi Magbegor gives them huge support in the middle, leading the WNBA with 3.0 BPG.
While the Aces and Liberty are worthy favorites, and I still think the Aces are most likely to win after Gray returns, I find the most futures value in the Sun, Lynx and Storm. All three have teams capable of legitimately contending, but with juice more similar to a longshot.
Most Valuable Player
Leader: A'ja Wilson (-210)
In the hunt: Alyssa Thomas (+550), Napheesa Collier (+600)
Longshots of interest: Breanna Stewart (+1800), Kahleah Copper (+3300), Arike Ogunbowale (+5000)
Wilson began the season as the favorite (+175) to win the MVP, and she has been utterly dominant to start the season and has risen to clear odds-on-favorite status. Wilson leads the WNBA with 28.3 PPG, is tied for first with 11.4 RPG, ranks third with 2.7 BPG and is tied for fifth with 1.9 SPG. Wilson is in line to win her third MVP award, and could very well repeat as Defensive Player of the Year. If the Aces do take the expected leap in the standings when Gray returns, Wilson's MVP case would get even that much stronger.
Thomas and Collier are both serious contenders for this award based on their elite individual play (both top-5 in the league in two major statistical categories), but even moreso on them leading their teams to two of the best records in the league. Thomas has a proclivity for dropping eye-catching triple-doubles, and Collier is the only player besides Wilson averaging more than 20 and 10 this season.
Stewart, the reigning MVP, is having a down year statistically and is looking like a longshot to repeat. But the Liberty's team success keeps her within shouting distance. Copper and Ogunbowale are both explosive scorers leading their team into postseason contention.
In this category, I don't necessarily see huge futures value because I believe, barring injury, that Wilson is very likely to win and she's already the odds-on favorite. I would probably still have her as the best value in this category, but at -210 the return just isn't strong enough for me to put very much on her at this point. I see some small futures value in Stewart, because she is the reigning MVP and the Liberty are playing so well that if she were to put together the type of dominant statistical run she's capable of she could still work her way into contention.