Liverpool's status as a serious title contender is a genuine surprise -- not merely because they're challenging, but due to the manner of their charge.
Last summer, few observers gave Liverpool a genuine chance of winning the Premier League title. Their odds were 33-1, fifth favourites. It appeared they were about to lose their star man -- John W. Henry later admitted that Luis Suarez did have a release clause in his contract, but instead the striker stayed at Liverpool, becoming the league's top scorer this season. And their summer signings didn't significantly strengthen their starting XI.
However, Liverpool have pushed on, individuals have improved, and the team is more purposeful.
Rodgers deserves great credit for leading Liverpool to this position, although it's peculiar how significantly Liverpool have diverged from his initial mission statement. Liverpool's attacking play has been superb at times, particularly their unstoppable counterattacks, but it's a long way from the possession football Rodgers preached during his first few months at Anfield.
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Liverpool average the ninth-highest possession in the Premier League this season but have recorded the most shots on target. For the record, they've also completed the most dribbles -- they're breaking quickly upfield and into space -- and made the most tackles, not only because they press high up the pitch but also because they're spending longer without the ball. This all means that Liverpool are more reminiscent of Borussia Dortmund than Barcelona, more purpose than poise.
The major difference between Dortmund and Liverpool, arguably, is that Rodgers' formation changes have worked more effectively than Jurgen Klopp's. Dortmund's Plan A has proved beyond what Liverpool have replicated so far, considering Klopp took Dortmund to two Bundesliga titles and a European Cup final, but they are never comfortable away from a standard 4-2-3-1. When Klopp attempted to use a 3-5-2 system at home to Schalke last season, for example, Dortmund were shambolic, changed system four times in the game, and lost 2-1. Rodgers' shifts have been more measured and more successful.
Unusually, for the Premier League's in-form side, it's tempting to conclude that Rodgers hasn't yet entirely formulated his best starting XI once you consider formations in addition to personnel. Defensive injuries have necessitated constant changing at the back, where it's still difficult to ascertain Rodgers' preferred centre-back combination or his first-choice full-back duo.
In fact, such is the versatility of Liverpool's defensive players that Rodgers had the luxury of switching his full-backs for Sunday's win against Manchester United. Glen Johnson was on the right, Jon Flanagan the left -- the opposite of the previous game, also a 3-0 win, against Southampton. Maybe Rodgers wanted more overlapping past Patrice Evra so used Johnson on that side. Maybe he wanted a full-back who would stick tight to Juan Mata, so used Flanagan on the left. Either way, it's a neat summary of Liverpool -- they're tactically variable in a positive respect.
Rodgers has actually used four entirely different formations this year: 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, 3-5-2 (or, if you prefer, 3-4-1-2) and now a 4-4-2 diamond. The formations can basically be separated into two separate groups.
The 4-2-3-1 and the 4-3-3 are, in Rodgers' terms, his "natural" shapes. They were his two most common formations at Swansea City, and Rodgers can switch between them simply by tilting his midfield triangle, a regular tactical change during his first season at Anfield.
The problem with these systems, however, is that they don't allow both Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge to play together through the middle. The 4-2-3-1 is a slight exception because Suarez can float around behind Sturridge, but this risks the system becoming a 4-4-2 and leaving Rodgers with only two central midfielders, something he's desperate to avoid.
Instead, the 3-5-2 and the 4-4-2 diamond allow Rodgers to use two up front while deploying at least three men in the midfield zone. The 3-5-2 was successful in an attacking sense because it put Liverpool's two strikers in central attacking positions but left them exposed down the flanks. They barely kept a clean sheet.
The 4-4-2 diamond doesn't have that problem, and the results with that system so far have been excellent. The 3-0 victory at Southampton probably flattered Liverpool, with Steven Gerrard overloaded in the deep-lying role (when the players on the outside of the diamond shuttled forward), although the 3-0 win at Old Trafford on Sunday doesn't sufficiently reflect Liverpool's dominance. Suarez and Sturridge weren’t at their best, but were still crucial.
This is a strange strike partnership. Suarez and Sturridge are the top two goal scorers in the Premier League, have contributed 57 percent of Liverpool's goals, and consistently combine to brilliant effect. It's easy to forget that they've started together in only half of Liverpool's league games this season, because of Suarez's suspension and Sturridge's injury. Only one of Liverpool's defeats, at Arsenal, happened with both in the starting XI.
The pair still don't have definitive positions within the Liverpool side and have encouraged their manager to experiment in deeper positions to allow them to play up front together. When that hasn't been possible, Sturridge has been shifted left or Suarez shunted right. Their pace and movement in possession, plus their ability to seamlessly change positions, means this hasn't been a problem.
Therefore, compared to recent Premier League champions, Liverpool are most like the Chelsea title winners of 2009-10. Chelsea's formation varied throughout the season, with Carlo Ancelotti favouring a diamond midfield, then a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1 before using a Christmas Tree (4-3-2-1) and, finally, a 4-4-2 in the final weeks of the campaign.
By May, it was difficult to succinctly describe Chelsea's first-choice system. Indeed, both Didier Drogba, that season's Golden Boot winner, and Nicolas Anelka, the previous season's Golden Boot winner, were dropped for crucial away matches when Ancelotti needed a solid shape -- this despite the fact that they were both crucial players.
Rodgers has followed that blueprint. He has chopped and changed to get the best from different individuals at different periods. His formation changes have partly been tactical brilliance, and partly a recognition that he hasn't yet discovered a perfect system. Imagine how devastating Liverpool will become if he does.