The Premier League season is almost over and the race for a place in Europe is reaching its climax.
We take a look at who is in contention to qualify for the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, and what impact an English team winning a European trophy could have.
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How many teams qualify for Europe?
The maximum that can qualify from domestic performance in the Premier League -- so either league position or by winning one of the two cup competitions -- is seven.
However, the places reserved for European titleholders are separate if a team does not qualify domestically. Therefore, it is technically possible, though unlikely, for the Premier League to have 10 teams in Europe -- the seven domestic qualifiers plus the winners of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League if they are outside the European places.
With West Ham and Leicester losing in the semifinals if the Europa League and Europa Conference League respectively, there will be the usual seven Premier League teams in Europe next season.
Which Premier League places will qualify this season?
At the start of the season, the top four in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League, while fifth place and the FA Cup winners enter the Europa League. The winners of the Carabao Cup qualify for the Europa Conference League.
However, Liverpool won the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup and can finish no lower than second in the league, so the Europa League and Europa Conference League places transfer to the Premier League.
So, on domestic performance we know the following:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
All teams go direct to the group stage, apart from the Europa Conference League, where the seventh-placed club will enter in the final qualifying round.
Who is in contention for Europe?
Manchester City (90), Liverpool (89 points) and Chelsea (70) are confirmed in the Champions League.
That leaves two teams in contention for the final UCL place.
Tottenham Hotspur (68) have a vastly superior goal difference to Arsenal (66), which means Spurs will qualify for the Champions League if they get at least a draw at bottom-of-the-table Norwich City on Sunday. Arsenal must win at home to Everton and hope Spurs lose at Norwich. Whoever missed out will play in the Europa League.
The second Europa League place is close. Manchester United (58) hold it right now, but West Ham United (56) are two points behind with a far superior goal difference. The Hammers must win at Brighton on the final day and hope Man United draw or lose at Crystal Palace. Both are assured of at least a place in the UEFA Europa Conference League as no other team remains in contention for a place in Europe.
What if Liverpool win the Champions League?
This will have no effect on the Premier League as Liverpool are guaranteed to finish in the top four this season. There is no "drop down" of places to give fifth a Champions League spot.
If the Champions League winners also qualify domestically, the position in the group stage for the titleholders is vacant. This isn't filled by giving another team a place, the qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.
Ordinarily, this would mean the champions of the country ranked 11th in the UEFA coefficient table at the end of the 2020-21 season -- which is Scotland -- would go direct to the Champions League group stage, rather than having to qualify. However, Russia is ranked eighth, and UEFA has announced its clubs will continue to be excluded from European competition. That means the Scottish champions, likely Celtic, are guaranteed to go direct to the group stage.
So, if Liverpool win the Champions League it will be the champions of the 12th-ranked country who are given a place in the group stage. This just so happens to be Ukraine (Shakhtar Donetsk), though there are obvious doubts about its clubs participating next season. If Ukrainian clubs are not able to compete, it would be the champions of Turkey (Trabzonspor) promoted to the group stage.
How does qualification work for other European titleholders?
This can no longer apply this season, but it's worth explaining.
By winning the Europa League, a club earns a place in the Champions League group stage. How that affects European places in the Premier League depends purely on where they finish.
There are three overriding principles:
- The winners of a European competition have the automatic right to European football the following season.
- A team has the right to play in the highest-ranked competition they qualify for.
- Another Premier League team cannot be affected by another's success in Europe.
There are a few caveats, but it's best to keep things simple for the purposes of this article.
So if a team wins the Europa League:
- They are guaranteed to play in the Champions League wherever they finish in the Premier League
- Eighth in the Premier League cannot qualify for Europe as a result of this
If the Europa League winners finish in the top four, nothing changes for the Premier League. The UCL qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.
If the Europa League winners finish fifth or sixth, there would be only one Premier League team in the Europa League:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, UEL winners
Europa League: 5 or 6 only
Europa Conference League: 7
If the Europa League winners finish seventh, there would be no English team in the Europa Conference League:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, UEL winners
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: -
This happened in Spain last season, when Villarreal won the Europa League and finished seventh, meaning LaLiga had no representative in the inaugural season of the Europa Conference League.
If the Europa League winners finish lower than seventh, they would their place in Europe as titleholders but the top seven would be unaffected -- there would be eight Premier League teams in Europe:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, UEL winners
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
The same outline principles apply to any team that wins the Europa Conference League.
If the Europa Conference League winners finish in the top six, nothing changes for the Premier League. The qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.
If the UECL winners finish seventh, they play in the Europa League and there is no Premier League team in the UECL. If the UECL winners finish lower than seventh, it would create an additional team in Europe as titleholders.
Can eighth in the Premier League qualify for Europe?
It is impossible for eighth to qualify by league position. This team must win a domestic cup competition or a European title to play in Europe the following season.