When India vs Bangladesh first showed up on the fixture list for the men's national football team, it seemed a relatively winnable contest. After all, India (FIFA rank 126) have lost just four of their 28 games against Bangladesh (FIFA rank 185), winning 14 and drawing 10.
However, in the months since the fixtures of Group C in the 2027 AFC Asian Cup Qualifiers were announced, this tie has turned into quite the banana peel. So much so, that it has necessitated the return of 95-goal legend Sunil Chhetri from his retirement.
Bangladesh can now boast of Premier League pedigree in their side thanks to Hamza Choudhury (on loan from Leicester City at Championship side Sheffield United) and given India have only drawn two of their last three against Bangladesh, this is shaping up to be quite the test of Manolo Marquez's India.
Here's how India can beat Bangladesh:
Nullifying the Hamza X-Factor
Bangladesh was whipped up into a frenzy upon Choudhury's arrival, with national team captain Jamal Bhuiyan feeding the flames by saying "It feels like our Messi is here." Unlike the Argentinian though, Choudhury has primarily operated as a defensive midfielder or a deep-lying playmaker throughout his career. Given his ability is of Premier League-level however, there will be a temptation for Bangladesh manager Javier Cabrera to push him closer to goal to hurt India.
He could very well operate all along Bangladesh's central spine, and that uncertainty of where he will feature could mean Marquez will have to be a bit fluid with the formations he employs. Brandon Fernandes' injury has opened the door for Farukh Choudhary as India's #10 and given he too can play deeper in midfield right to a striking role alongside Chhetri, he seems best placed to start, as he can enable a three-man midfield or play as a #10 above a defensive pivot.
Should Hamza operate from deep, Farukh's physicality and industriousness will prove pivotal in nullifying his threat. There may be a temptation to opt for a man-marking job (picture Ander Herrera on Eden Hazard) but that runs the risk of isolating Chhetri up-front.
Thus, it's very likely that Marquez will opt for a defensive double-pivot of Suresh Singh and Apuia, with Ayush Chhetri likely to make way despite an impressive debut against Maldives. Jeakson Singh could be an option, but given he's barely featured since the 0-3 loss to Syria under Marquez, it seems quite unlikely. Nonetheless, whoever operates in midfield will have their work cut out when facing up to Choudhury, who boasts a balance of physicality and incisive forward passing. If the Bangladesh star operates closer to goal, Suresh and Apuia will have to be very positionally sound and calm with their first touches -- as Choudhury will be quick to punish any mistakes.
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Don't have tunnel vision for Sunil Chhetri
Six of India's last seven goals against Bangladesh have come from Chhetri, and it's no wonder that Cabrera will be focused on thwarting the Indian talisman from scoring. Ironically, Choudhury could be an avenue to disrupt the supply to Chhetri, but given India now move up the field through the wings under Marquez, that scenario might not occur.
Indeed, it seems wasteful to employ a player of Choudhury's talents solely to stifle Chhetri. Given how blunt India appeared without Chhetri in the games after his 'retirement' however, that may guarantee a draw for Bangladesh.
If Bangladesh are tempted to sit back and spring counter-attacks through a Choudhury long ball, the onus will be on India to force play. Brandon's absence will be felt in this scenario, but India's performance against Maldives showed that Marquez can mix up his avenues of attack. Chhetri ought to be a part of the attacking route, as opposed to the entirety of it, which will ensure that Cabrera's team can't simply double up on the Indian striker and see him off.
Liston the inside forward or Liston the winger?
Liston Colaco's electric performance against Maldives was pure winger-esque perfection, and Saad Uddin will have to hope he fares as well as Bashundhara Kings teammate Bishwanath Ghosh when Mohun Bagan failed to beat them in two AFC Cup games in 2023. Colaco featured as a wing-back in those games but has moved up the pitch for Bagan this season, often operating as an inside forward with a penchant to shoot.
However, with Chhetri's forte at making near post runs that many a defender has failed to pick up, Colaco might be better off continuing the same role Marquez used him in against Maldives. On most days, Colaco has the beating of his marker, and with having finally ended the hoodoo of not scoring for the national team against Maldives, will be free to focus on being the supplier of goals. It's a simple instruction set for Colaco -- beat marker, find Chhetri with a cross. Repeat it enough times and India will have a goal.
Set-pieces
Isa Faysal - 5ft 8 inches, Saad Uddin - 5ft 9 inches, Shakil Hossain - 5ft 9 inches and Topu Barman - 6ft
Valpuia - 5ft 10 inches, Rahul Bheke - 5ft 11 inches, Sandesh Jhingan - 6ft 2 inches, Subhasish Bose - 6ft 1 inch.
The Indian defence has a cumulative 10-inch height advantage on their Bangladesh counterparts and when you consider that Bheke and Chhetri have incredible leaps, it's no wonder that Marquez considers set-pieces a great avenue for India to exploit. 60% of India's goals under the Spaniard have come from corners, and it's thus imperative that the set-piece delivery is great. Mahesh Singh might thus be entrusted with another start, which ought to see his combination with Valpuia continue down the right.
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A defence that needs to deal with pace and trickery
Bangladesh's frontline can find the net, with Shekh Morsalin having a unique blend of dribbling skills, pace and long-range strikes. India's defence under Marquez has given the opposition plenty of chances on a fast break, and the Spaniard will have to consider how his side sets up out of possession, especially if Bheke or Jhingan, not the most speedy of defenders are in his starting lineup. It helps that in Valpuia and Bose, Marquez has fullbacks capable of covering for their centre-backs if they are caught out by pace, but this can still be an Achilles heel if not addressed. Dropping back and stretching the distances between the midfield and defensive line might seem anti-thetical to how Marquez plays, but it could be a necessity, especially if Choudhury finds his radar early on.
A stretched game might even play into India's hands, with Chhetri clever enough to operate in the half-spaces and turn provider. Whether India have the finishers to dovetail with Chhetri however, is another question entirely.