This has been a season unlike any other in recent years -- if ever. There are reasons for the volatility, the unpredictability and the dreaded concept of "parity" (traditionally used by coaches to rationalize losses), but there has never been a season in my lifetime in which results and performance were so challenging to gauge and evaluate. Winning on the road has been a singular test this season, and it knows no conference boundaries.
Take Kansas. How does one square the Jayhawks shooting a scorching 69% while missing only 14 shots in 40 minutes against a historically good defensive team in Houston, then missing 15 shots in the first half and 40 overall at Kansas State two days later? The same team that beat Kentucky, UConn, Houston and Tennessee lost to UCF, West Virginia and Kansas State -- all unranked. The Jayhawks are not alone. More top-10 and Top 25 teams than ever are finding wins on the road elusive, if not downright impossible. Without regard to point spreads, picking the home team in college basketball this season is the percentage play.
Even with all of the disequilibrium in the game, a few teams have shown high-level consistency on offense, defense and conversion. Connecticut and Purdue have separated, yet they are not at all unbeatable. The difference in teams ranked in The Bilas Index, Vol. III is not only their results and performance metrics against the field, but their ability to elevate toward the end of the season. Remember that metrics tell us what a team has done in the past, but not necessarily what it is capable of in the future. Some teams are ascending while others are, quite frankly, frauds that will be found out by season's end. There are always upsets, where the better team stumbles. And there are always teams that taste defeat because they were simply overrated.
With so many teams bunched up in the middle of The Bilas Index, Vol. III, the easy thing for the NCAA selection committee to say is the common refrain: how difficult it will be to pick the schools and seed the tournament. It is always a challenge and a puzzle. But if most teams are the same, how many games won and lost against quality competition will -- and should -- be the factors used to differentiate between the true challengers for the crown and the plebeian masses aching for a place in the bracket, even if one of them is Dayton.
The Bilas Index, Vol. III does not fluctuate based upon one-game results or a given week that could include a loss or an uncharacteristic outing. The index provides an unassailable ranking of teams based upon how they have played, and what they are capable of achieving. January represents the dog days of the season. February brings separation. March brings new life, as each team enters its conference tournament and beyond with a record of 0-0.
For your basketball education, the elevation of your roundball understanding, we -- the royal we -- present The Bilas Index, Vol. III. As always, you're welcome, planet Earth.
Flip the order, and you've got a winning ticket!! https://t.co/dxHIXlaHCJ
— Jay Bilas (@JayBilas) February 10, 2024
No. 1 UConn Huskies: Consider last season: The Huskies started 14-0 and were considered the best team in the country. Then UConn lost four of its next six games and was dismissed as the top team on the national scene. Still, the Huskies not only elevated their level of play down the stretch, but they left no doubt throughout the NCAA tournament that they were the best team in the country. The metrics agreed, as UConn finished a rabid third in the nation in offensive efficiency and seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency.
This season, the Huskies have different personnel but are exhibiting the same traits of a national champion. UConn is one of the top-rated teams and has the ceiling to improve down the stretch, has an elite offense and has been an elite offensive team from the opening game, despite injuries to Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan. The rub was that UConn's defense early was not on the same elite level as its offense, but capable of reaching that elite level. While UConn's defense might not reach the same level as last year's team, it doesn't have to be as strong to win it all this season. Over the past 10 games, UConn has given up over 65 points just twice, after giving up over 65 points on four occasions prior to its 10-game heater.
The Huskies have been tougher, more together and more physical of late, and can still get better. After having their defense rated outside the nation's top 30 early, the Huskies have the second-rated defense in the Big East and are among the top 15 defenses in the nation, a significant upward trend. Now and going forward, UConn is the nation's best team.