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Standard-bearing Crusaders should never be in this mess

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Waratahs playing group never regrouped after 2023 (1:43)

The ESPN Scrum Reset crew discuss the Waratahs' wretched season, and why they were doomed to fail in 2024. (1:43)

Recriminations are circling the Crusaders.

While not yet removed from the Super Rugby playoff picture, the time to ask how this season went so wrong is dawning.

With two regular season matches remaining the Crusaders need a minor miracle to sneak into eighth place - a scarcely believable scenario for the seven-time defending champions.

First the Crusaders must knock off the table topping Blues, who have lost once this season, in Christchurch on Saturday and follow that with victory over Moana Pasifika in the final round. Even then, the Crusaders need other results to go their way.

Limping into the postseason with four wins from 14 attempts would hardly be cause for celebration, either. It would merely shine a spotlight on Super Rugby's much-maligned bloated playoff model.

This is, after all, a standard bearing team that forged a dynasty under Scott Robertson. No one expected that empire to crumble overnight.

Assuming Robertson's mantle was always an impossible task. The changes of management, with Scott Hansen following Robertson to the All Blacks, and the influential defections of Richie Mo'unga, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Sam Whitelock and Jack Goodhue left crater size holes.

Further injury blows, the season-ending loss of Will Jordan and Braydon Ennor, as well as Ethan Blackadder, Scott Barrett, Fergus Burke, Tamaiti Williams, David Havili and Codie Taylor, the latter due to a prolonged contracted rest, missing large chunks of the season compounded challenges. Excuses aside, though, the Crusaders should never be in this mess. There is no world in which they should be belted by the Force. After years of dominating their rivals - and boasting strength in depth that allowed them to seamlessly cover any absence - there is no sense of sympathy forthcoming.

At this point, as the Crusaders sit third from bottom with two wins from 12 matches, pressure and scrutiny is ratcheting up on Rob Penney and the merits of his appointment.

From the outset there were three fundamental failings in hiring Penney. The first was the notion of effectively appointing a caretaker coach on a two-year period until other, more highly regarded, options were deemed ready or available.

In this instance those candidates were Crusaders assistant Tamati Ellison, who will link with the All Blacks as a skills coach under Robertson, and Andrew Goodman, who will join Ireland's coaching staff as attack coach next year after impressing at Leinster.

While not explicitly expressed at the time, ushering in a caretaker coach is an alarming move for a champion franchise.

Sure, New Zealand rugby's coaching cupboard was bare after Robertson pilfered three Super Rugby teams and the Crusaders were never going to be able to afford to lure Goodman home. They would, though, have been better off promoting Ellison to the top job.

As it transpired, he could not have fared any worse, and would be better off for the adversity.

Penney's coaching record was another clear red flag. The Waratahs - as evidenced by Darren Coleman's latest exit - are a basket case. Yet Penney's time in Sydney offered a warning and his Super Rugby record of seven wins and 24 losses strongly suggests his methods and messages aren't fit for the modern game.

Of the 44 other coaches to lead New Zealand Super teams, Penney's 2-10 record this season is the worst. The Brumbies' first win over the Crusaders in 15 years last week dropped Penney below Vance Stewart, the inaugural Crusaders coach who led the team to last in Super Rugby's maiden season.

Selection this season has been haphazard, too.

At first-five alone the Crusaders blundered their way through five options. Teha Kemara, Rivez Reihana and Riley Hohepa were all tried and tossed to the side before Robertson requested Havili assume the reins. Burke is now back in the saddle but such frequent changes proved highly problematic.

Noah Hotham is on the cusp of a maiden All Blacks call up yet his late season promotion at halfback is another example of not reading the room.

Repeating the same discipline issues signals adjustments aren't being made either.

The final point the Crusaders must reflect on is the insistence that only coaches with an affinity to the team were fit to replace Robertson. The premise that minimal changes were needed, despite the series of departures, and that someone with forged links could largely continue established ways proved decidedly misguided.

As losing now becomes a habit, and the Crusaders consistently crumble under pressure to botch games they were once accustomed to winning, the weight of expectation is starting to take its toll.

Penney cut a lone, defeated, dejected figure in the coaching boxing after losses to the Highlanders and Brumbies in recent weeks. A testy press conference followed on Wednesday, with Penney insisting he will remain in his post next season.

"I love this group and I know what they're capable of. You only have to reflect back to a few seasons ago. In 2001 the Crusaders, after winning three titles, finished 10th. Then they went unbeaten in 2002. The doom and gloom is not something we're buying into," Penney said.

"I'm boxing on, same as always. As far as I know nothing has changed for me or any of the other staff. We're already looking forward to next year because you're always projecting ahead. It's not character building it's character revealing.

"You have to be a realist; you have to be positive and you have to try and be inspirational.

"The performances have been patchy but there's been some great components to every week. We haven't been far away we just haven't been able to nail them."

Two home games to finish the regular season would usually be a daunting task for any opposition but, with the Crusaders losing to the Reds and Hurricanes in Christchurch this year, the Blues will trek south weary yet confident of adding to the misery.

This is already the worst Crusaders season in history. Another defeat this week, to definitively draw a line through their playoff hopes, and stanch Crusaders faithful might opt out of witnessing their final outing.

Few, if anyone, envisioned such a dire campaign.