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Super Rugby Pacific playoffs: How Round 15 can affect the final ladder

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Waratahs playing group never regrouped after 2023 (1:43)

The ESPN Scrum Reset crew discuss the Waratahs' wretched season, and why they were doomed to fail in 2024. (1:43)

Love it or loathe it, the Super Rugby Pacific finals format has certainly created plenty of uncertainty ahead of the final round of the regular season.

As it stands, only the Chiefs, Reds and Waratahs know where they are going to finish. The Chiefs are secure in fourth, and can plan for a home quarterfinal against the Reds, but their last-gasp defeat by the Canes means that is also the best they can do.

The Queenslanders cannot improve on, nor be demoted from, fifth, while an injury-ravaged New South Wales squad can start planning for a few quiet beers on Monday week.

That means there are five games in Round 15 that can each, at this stage, have a bearing on the make-up of the final eight in what is an excellent result for competition organisers. There is however that whole argument that a bloated eight-team playoffs rewards at best, mediocrity; at its worst, however, a potential win rate of just 35.71%.

Here's how the final round -- and the final ladder -- can shake out after next weekend.

1st: Blues, 51 points

Round 15: Chiefs [H]

Saturday night's narrow loss to the Crusaders means the Blues still have work to do in the final round this weekend. A bonus-point win over the Chiefs next Saturday night will be good enough to wrap up top spot, unless the Hurricanes absolutely annihilate the Highlanders; Vern Cotter's side currently hold a 69-point lead over the Hurricanes on for and against as the second tiebreaker after total wins.

Beating the Chiefs with a bonus point looms as a huge challenge however, with very little between the three leading New Zealand teams. While the growing shadow of an improving Crusaders hovers over the other end of the eight, the lure of home ground advantage through to the decider remains a prize too attractive to not turn up and chase a bonus-point win next weekend.

Predicted finish: Second

2nd: Hurricanes, 51 points

Round 15: Highlanders [H]

The Hurricanes kept their hopes of top seeding for the playoffs alive, and maintained some breathing space on the Brumbies, with a pulsating 20-17 win over the Chiefs in Hamilton on Friday night. The fact they did it by overcoming both a red and a yellow card, meaning they played with 14 men for 30 minutes, will provide even greater confidence for their playoff tilt, though coach Clark Laidlaw will also want improved discipline over the coming weeks.

With the Blues-Chiefs clash to follow the Canes' game against the Highlanders, the 2016 champions will first want to ensure they have the game under control against the southerners before they chase a bonus point. A shock loss to the Highlanders would leave the door ajar for the Brumbies to sneak into second spot even if the Canes were to pick up a losing bonus point.

Predicted finish: First

3rd: Brumbies, 48 points

Round 15: Force [A]

The Brumbies powered to their 11th win of the season on Friday night, putting the Rebels through the ringer to secure a vital bonus point, that will likely be harder to come by in Perth next Saturday. Stephen Larkham's side will however be in the fortunate position of knowing exactly what they need to do, or even if any ladder improvement is possible, when they run out at HBF Park in the final game of the regular season.

If either the Blues or Hurricanes lose, the Brumbies would jump into the top two with a win in Perth. If both Kiwi teams were to lose and claim a bonus point, the Brumbies would finish first with victory over the Force as they would move to 12 wins, one more than the New Zealand franchises if they are indeed beaten next weekend. Looking at the two games, there is more likely to be an upset in Auckland, however. And it may be that the Brumbies have nothing really to play for, other than maintaining five wins' worth of momentum, when the opening whistle blows in Perth.

Predicted finish: Third

4th: Chiefs, 43 points

Round 15: Blues [A]

As previously mentioned, the Chiefs are secure in fourth. Had they beaten the Hurricanes on Friday, they would have still been in contention for a top-two finish. But given they are now two wins and five points adrift of the third-placed Brumbies, Clayton McMillan's side cannot improve their ladder position.

Just how McMillan approaches the final-round clash with the Blues offers intrigue, then. Does he look to freshen up a few frontline stars for what looms as a huge showdown with a Reds side that proved worthy opposition, twice, in New Zealand last year and whom they lost to in Round 3 this season? Or, in a bid to avoid two straight defeats ahead of the playoffs, does he throw everything at the Blues next Saturday?

It looms as an interesting call either way.

Final ladder position: Fourth

5th: Reds, 36 points

Round 15: Waratahs [A]

Queensland rubber-stamped their fifth-place finish and a return to Hamilton for a second straight year with a thumping 59-13 win over the Force on Saturday night, headlined by another hat-trick for breakout star Tim Ryan.

Just like McMillan, Reds coach Les Kiss also faces a difficult balancing act as he plots an upset of the Kiwi's mob in two weeks' time. The Reds did well to bounce back from a poor showing in Fiji, but that extra bit of travel and the heavy pitch at Suncorp on Saturday night will have taken a toll. Kiss told Stan Sport the Reds had already considered player workloads, and would do so again, but that he also didn't "want to take the foot off". The Bob Templeton Cup and a sweep of the Waratahs are also on offer in Sydney.

Final ladder position: Fifth

6th: Highlanders, 28 points

Round 15: Hurricanes [A]

The Highlanders ran up their sixth win of the season and locked away a finals berth in the process with a comfortable 36-point victory over a disappointing Fijian Drua on Sunday in Dunedin. Clarke Dermody's side cannot however advance any higher than sixth and could drop to seventh if the Rebels upset the Fijians in Lautoka next weekend.

Dermody may as a result look to rotate his squad to face the Hurricanes, whom the Highlanders could foreseeably face in back-to-back weeks if results fall a certain way in Round 15. Perhaps it's a decision as to whether they'd rather travel to Canberra to face the Brumbies -- as positions stand ahead of next weekend -- or remain in New Zealand for a date with either the Blues or Hurricanes? None of those three realities offer that much appeal, really.

Predicted finish: Sixth

7th: Rebels, 26 points

Round 15: Drua [A]

The Rebels secured a first Super Rugby finals appearance proper -- they made the playoffs in Super Rugby AU in 2020 -- over the weekend, though with no direct action themselves. It was instead the Force's defeat that means they cannot drop out of the eight completely, no matter the Round 15 results.

But they can still slide to eighth if they lose to the Drua and fail to pick up a bonus point. If they were to upset the Fijians, a loss by the Highlanders in Wellington next weekend would see them climb to sixth. As is the case for the Highlanders, none of the possible quarterfinal dates will be in any way appealing for the Rebels. Even heading a few hours north to Canberra is far from desirable -- the Rebels were smashed 53-17 there last Friday night.

Predicted finish: Eighth

8th: Drua, 21 points

Round 15: Rebels [H]

The Drua's travel woes continued in Dunedin on Sunday afternoon, Mick Byrne's side hammered 39-3 after they failed to capitalise on some early field position and possession. That result has left the Drua likely needing a win next Saturday against the Rebels to qualify for a second straight finals campaign.

They could also jump above the Rebels and into seventh if they deny their opponents a losing bonus point. A loss, meanwhile, would leave the door ajar for the Force and either of the Crusaders or Moana Pasifika to sneak into the eight instead.

Predicted finish: Seventh

9th: Force, 19 points

Round 15: Brumbies [H]

Just like the Drua, the Force continue to find the going tough on the road this season. They were on the end of a brutal attacking clinic from the Reds in Brisbane, their finals destiny out of their own hands as a result.

The Force will know whether they are still a chance for finals footy when they run out at HBF Park next weekend, and they will be relying on the Rebels to have knocked over the Drua earlier on Saturday. If that does eventuate, Simon Cron's side would secure eighth spot with a win over the Brumbies. While that appears unlikely based on the weekend's results, the Force are a different outfit at home and knocked over the Brumbies in the corresponding fixture last year.

Predicted finish: 10th

10th: Crusaders, 19 points

Round 15: Moana Pasifika

Just when you thought the Crusaders were done, after one of the more forgettable weeks in their storied history, they go and upset the ladder-leading Blues in dramatic fashion in Christchurch. That victory means that, despite only three wins for 2024, they are still capable of playing finals in 2024.

Rob Penney's side will also be cheering on a Rebels upset; if that does transpire, and the Crusaders defeat Moana, they will then have to sit back and hope the Brumbies beat the Force in Perth. If both the Force and Crusaders win and finish level on 23 or even 24 points after Round 15, and the Drua were also beaten, then the West Aussies would advance on account of their extra victory.

Predicted finish: 9th

11th: Moana Pasifika, 18 points

Round 15: Crusaders [A]

This is already Moana's best season of their short history to date, the expansion franchise picking up their fourth win for the year with a comfortable victory over the Waratahs on Saturday. That result kept their season alive, but they still are at long odds to scrape into the eight.

As well as needing a victory over the Crusaders in Christchurch, Moana would also need both the Rebels and Brumbies to beat the Drua and Force respectively. They would also likely need the Rebels to deny the Drua a bonus point in the process, given a bonus-point win over the Crusaders in Christchurch is a tall order, even considering the Kiwis' poor record this season. In all seriousness, it's hard to see Moana bettering their 18-point total as it stands right now.

Predicted finish: 11th.

12th: Waratahs, 12 points

Round 15: Reds [H].

Your season is done, fellas. Time to book the London Hotel in Paddington to farewell coach Darren Coleman.

Predicted quarterfinals:

1st vs. 8th: Hurricanes vs. Rebels

2nd vs. 7th: Blues vs. Drua

3rd vs. 6th: Brumbies vs. Highlanders

4th vs. 5th: Chiefs vs. Reds [locked in]