As I sit and write this, it is Veteran's Day. As a veteran, it's a day that means a lot to me and a reminder of why I served our country. If you'd like to know more about what Veteran's Day means to me you can watch me talk about it with Field Yates on an episode of Fantasy Focus earlier this week.
Thank you to all who are currently serving or have served our country. From a fellow veteran, I appreciate you. And so does Liz Loza! So without further adieu, Liz and I are going to give you some winners from the Week 10 NFL slate.
TE Props
Liz: Thank you for your service, friend. We all appreciate what you've done and continue to do for our communities. And because you're such an inspiration, I'm going to kick my picks off with a anytime TD, as well!
Irv Smith Jr. anytime touchdown (+390) vs. Texans
Smith scored his first touchdown as a Bengal in Week 9. And I think he finds the end zone again in Week 10. With Tee Higgins (hamstring) sidelined, Smith should soak up a ton of looks (particularly in the red area of the field, where he drew a season-high three opportunities last Sunday night). I like his chances of converting versus a Texans defense that's allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and gave up touchdown touchdowns to Cade Otton last weekend.
RB Props
Bijan Robinson OVER 81.5 rushing + receiving yards at Cardinals
Daniel: We all know it's not Bijan's fault. Hopefully, after plenty of time in the spotlight answering for his lack of Bijan usage, he'll do the right thing a put the ball in the rookie's hands. Even if he doesn't course correct like we're expecting, this is a Cardinals defense than can be beat by running backs. They've given up a touchdown to 7 running backs in 9 games so far. They've also allowed an average of 110 yards from scrimmage to the 9 starting RBs they've seen this season. I don't trust Arthur Smith to play Bijan at the goal line, since he has the same number of carries inside the five yard line this season as TE Jonnu Smith and 4th string WR KhaDarel Hodge, but I do expect him to give the kid opportunities to succeed.
Liz: Me and my home league hope you're right about Bijan, DD! Hopefully the rookie is out of Arthur Smith's dog house. Considering he's averaging 5.5 yards per touch (RB12), a modest 15 touches should take him over 82 scrimmage yards. I'm with you.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 2.5 receptions at Chargers
Daniel: With David Montgomery coming back, a lot of people are wondering what kind of usage Gibbs will get. I'm in the camp of, the Lions will find ways to put the ball in Gibbs' hands, including using him at WR while Montgomery is lined up at RB. The Chargers have allowed three receptions to nine different running backs this year. And Jahmyr is averaging 4.7 catches per game! He's hit three catches in all but two of his games this year, Weeks 1 & 3. Ever since settling into this role he is a lock to 5-6 targets per game, with the potential for much more based on the game flow. I'm going three RB props for the first time this season and I'm loving all of them!
Liz: I'm not surprised you're highlighting the Lions, but I am a little shocked you're not hyping Montgomery. He's been your dude all season! Yet, I'm with you on Gibbs. That genie does not get put back in the bottle... not after recording scrimmage 189 yards, at least. It'll be nice to have a rested and fresh Detroit squad back from bye.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown at Jaguars
Daniel: This is unlikely to payout big on its own, it's -200 as I write this, but everyone knows that CMC is going for history this week. He currently has 17 straight games with a touchdown, tied for the most in NFL history with Lenny Moore of the Baltimore Colts back in the '60's. You don't need a lot of context for this one -- CMC is the best in the league, he gets the ball more than anyone else on that team, including at the goal line, and the team will want to help him break the record, trust me. The 49ers want to help him break it.
QB Props
Joshua Dobbs OVER .5 INTs (-150) vs. Saints
Liz: I wish I could be as optimistic about Josh Dobbs. Because the story is so good! I, too, loved watching the journeyman play miracle ball last Sunday. But the thing about miracles... is that they're rare. Dobbs has recorded 20 interceptable passes (QB1) on the season. On Sunday, he'll face off against a Saints defense that leads the league in INTs, having forced 12 thus far into 2023. Even with Jefferson potentially returning, Dobbs odds of recording at least one turnover are sky high.
WR Props
Christian Kirk OVER 53.5 receiving yards vs. 49ers
Liz: The Jaguars are also back from bye, which means Calvin Ridley fantasy managers are potentially back on tilt. Rather than mess the perimeter of it all, though, I'm going to stick with the slot. Christian Kirk is averaging 65 receiving yards per game and has managed at least 54 yards in five of eight games this season. I think he flirts with 60 receiving yards in a close game (+3) versus the 49ers. San Francisco has struggled to contain opposing receivers, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. Tyler Boyd (with Tee Higgins on the field) was able to convert all three of his looks for 40 yards when facing slot CB Isaiah Oliver back in Week 8. I have faith in Kirk (particularly with Zay Jones sidelined for another game) and the OVER.