Lance Franklin's stunning free agency defection from Hawthorn to Sydney in late 2013 could end up playing a major role in a Hawks dynasty.
The Hawks are my tip to achieve a 'four-peat' this year, and Franklin's controversial move may be a major reason behind them creating history.
Hawthorn obviously won two flags with Buddy but to keep them at the top, it's probably been a blessing to have him move to the Swans.
If you look at the recent AFL dynasties -- Brisbane in the early 2000s, and then Geelong 2007-2011, and now Hawthorn -- it's their ability to bring quality into the side and maintain the health of their lists that was so important.
I think we got a sense Hawthorn were preparing for life after Buddy during the 2013 season, and his departure has made the Hawks such a versatile threat inside 50.
In a similar way, it might not be a bad thing for Adelaide to lose Patrick Dangerfield. Sometimes those big names can command a lot of the play, and without Dangerfield I think the Crows will be even more dangerous at stoppages because other guys take on more ownership and responsibility. Remembering how good Geelong were with Gary Ablett Jnr, they still were able to win the 2011 premiership despite losing him to the Gold Coast at the end of 2010.
And that's the beauty of the Hawks. They have thrived with Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Jarryd Roughead as a quality three-pronged attack; they are so dangerous and versatile. Then there's Paul Puopolo, who also jumps in, and their mids push forward and kick goals. They're the most prolific side on turnover points and they can also defend turnovers, so they're so well balanced offensively and defensively.
Hawthorn showed their strength in their final NAB Challenge game against North Melbourne, with some of their key players stepping up. Sam Mitchell had 45 possessions, and Josh Gibson more than 30, too. James Sicily looks like he has grabbed a spot in the side for Round 1 at least with his two-goal effort.
Another huge positive for Hawthorn losing Buddy is it freed up their salary cap. Without having to pay Franklin a huge amount of money, they've instead been able to compensate their players who have improved, and pick the eyes out of the lesser clubs with free agency and trades.
Some of the players they've brought in during the past couple of years -- Brian Lake, James Frawley and Ben McEvoy, for example -- have had instant impact. I remember speaking to Gibson when he first moved across from North Melbourne, and he said "they dangle the cup in front of you"; that's what Hawthorn can do.
They really are primed for another real crack at it.
But it won't be without its challenges. There's been a couple of big departures in Lake, David Hale and Matt Suckling; they weren't as active in the trade period last year; and of course, the Roughead injury will hurt them. They've still got to plug that hole up forward -- whether it's Sicily, Tim O'Brien or Jack Fitzpatrick, that's still to be decided.
And the health of their list is so important. This season more than ever they need their best players on the park. This year will be a real test, but the chance for a fourth flag is unbelievable.
They are my tip at the moment.
It sounds obvious, but they would have gained so much confidence from recent years. In 2014, they were decimated by injuries, and last year they were beaten in a final and had to win on the road but still won the flag. They just know what to do in finals football and someone has to beat them in the big games on their home ground; the MCG is such a big advantage for them. And, of course, Alastair Clarkson is a genius with innovation and his ability to change and adapt to modern football.
Their first three games are very tough: Geelong (MCG), West Coast (MCG) and Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium). So that's challenging, and they've got to get through the period when Roughead is out injured. But they play 13 games in Victoria and four at Aurora Stadium -- so there's your top-four teed up and therefore being in the box seat to win another flag.
So, how do you beat Hawthorn?
Teams just battle to maintain the rage against them. But it's not impossible: Port Adelaide beat them twice last year, and they lost seven games in total; so it's more maintaining the rage for longer and sides battle to do that.
The keys to beating them are, you have to deny them the footy, shut down their uncontested marks, hurt them on the turnover and isolate their defenders. It's all good in theory but it's much harder to put into practice. They have so many guys who stand up under pressure.
I think all the ingredients are there for the Hawks to claim a fourth flag in a row, and in many ways, letting one of the best players in the league walk to a major rival may have helped their cause rather than weaken them.
On the flip side of the coin, Franklin's mega deal at the Swans is a huge risk-reward situation that, at this stage, hasn't paid off for them. It was a massive play, and something that was a bit out of the ordinary for the Swans. I guess the marketing alone and ability to put bums on seats has been a real windfall, but you're judged simply on premierships. In Sydney, you do need a marquee forward because that's what drives interest in the city. But it hasn't paid off on-field; it's a huge risk.
As for Hawthorn's chief rivals for the silverware this year, I think their biggest threat will be West Coast again. The Eagles have got a strong home ground advantage, a system that stands up, quality all over the park, and I think they'll learn from a disappointing finish last year.
Fremantle have dropped the ball in not getting a key forward in the past couple of trade periods -- good key forwards don't grow on trees -- and they need to be aggressive through this window because they've got such a talented midfield.
Sydney I feel have one of the strongest and deepest midfields in the competition, but they need to gain far more synergy and connection with their forwards over the season. As with all sides, if their midfield doesn't perform, it puts enormous pressure on the defence.
A few sides have shown that their best is certainly good enough -- North Melbourne, Richmond and Port Adelaide for example - but consistency and the mental toughness to perform week-in, week-out has at times deserted them.