By my reckoning, just three times in the three-and-a-half decades of the AFL has the premiership been won by a team which wasn't one of the obvious favourites at some stage of the home and away season.
Adelaide's back-to-back flags of 1997-98 remain a modern football miracle, the Crows doing it from fourth the first time and fifth (after being thrashed in their first final) the next. Even more so the Western Bulldogs, who came from seventh in their stunning 2016 triumph.
Rare stuff. But really, who'd be that surprised if we saw another such storyline this September given the way this topsy-turvy season is headed?
Particularly now that even Sydney, supposedly looking invincible just a couple of weeks back, appears to have the wobbles after two consecutive defeats. Indeed, is there any team right now you'd safely bet on standing on the dais come September 28? Not me.
The Swans had a three-game break on the rest of the competition only a fortnight ago. That would be just one game by now had Carlton also not stumbled against the Giants on Saturday night.
A win's a win of course, and it needs to be pointed out the aggregate margin of all Sydney's three defeats is just eight points, but nonetheless, the reality is the Swans have been some way off their absolute best ever since stitching up Carlton back in round 11.
They narrowly beat the Western Bulldogs, then conceded six and four-goal starts to Geelong and Adelaide before reeling both in, whilst their damage against GWS was done in just one burst, before these last two defeats to Fremantle and St Kilda.
You might have thought Carlton was ready to pounce given the Blues' impeccable past fortnight and two 10-goals-plus beltings of Geelong and Richmond. But they flirted a little too much with that form against the Giants, cruising to a 39-point lead before conceding 14 of the next 16 goals.
And what of those same Cats Carlton smashed only two games ago? Well, since then they've looked far more like the Cats of two years ago with convincing 45 and 51-point wins over two form teams in Essendon and Hawthorn.
Geelong's form line reads seven wins, six losses from the next seven, now two straight wins. Carlton has had runs of four wins straight and five wins straight punctuated by a run of four losses out of six.
Last year's Grand Finalists? Reigning premier Collingwood is outside the eight again and has won just two of its past six games. Brisbane was 13th on the ladder three weeks ago. Now the Lions are potentially one more victory away from a top four spot after their fifth win in a row, against Adelaide.
How about Port Adelaide, where coach Ken Hinkley was by popular consensus all but cleaning out his locker just a fortnight ago after that home hammering at the hands of that much-improved Brisbane?
Yep, they're still sitting sixth with enough winnable games in their remaining seven to make their appearance in another finals series more likely than unlikely.
That said, there's no fewer than five teams outside the eight either on percentage only or at worst just one game. That includes two of the past three premiers and a Grand Finalist, though in the case of the latter, do even the Western Bulldogs themselves know which version is going to turn up each week, having now alternated between win and loss seven games on end?
Melbourne, meanwhile, is a wait and see, West Coast so poor yet again on Sunday that it's hard to read too much into the Demons' 54-point win. You can, however, at least agree that Jake Melksham's return is a major plus.
The veteran defensive forward was making a big difference to the often troublesome forward structure last year before disastrously doing a "big" knee in the final home and away game. After just four quarters back on deck, he looks capable of doing exactly that again, Jacob van Rooyen and Bayley Fritsch netting seven goals between them.
And besides the top two Sydney and Carlton, the other top four incumbents, Fremantle and Essendon? Sixteen games in, I've still got doubts whether either the Dockers or Dons are genuine top four quality teams.
But there they are, both with 10 wins and a draw, Freo despite a run of four losses from six games earlier in the season, and Essendon in spite of having lost three of its past four prior to Friday night's quality victory over Collingwood.
Maybe, in this most even of seasons, "genuine top four quality" is all relative. And maybe this year, when it comes to ladder positioning, possession (at the right time) will be ninth tenths of finals law. Or then again, maybe not.
Why not? Because the even the numbers say that the pre-finals bye has diminished the advantage of finishing top four.
Imagine if, come September, the bottom half of the final eight contained last year's Grand Finalists and, say, Carlton or GWS, who reached preliminary finals year from positions fifth and seventh respectively?
I'd say in that case, a serious flag tilt from fifth, sixth, seventh or eighth wasn't even necessarily that much against the odds.
All very confusing, isn't it? And if you're after a guide to September? Well, this year especially, given the almost universal peaks and troughs of every contender in 2024, you might actually just have to wait until September itself.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.