THERE'S NO DOUBT the most common argument I hear from those desperate to downplay the importance, and value, of the Brownlow Medal is that "it's only a midfielders' award." I've always got two responses ready.
Firstly, well, yeah, it sort of is. Considering the majority of the league's top players play in the midfield, it's hardly surprising they receive the plaudits and accolades, right? Secondly, some of the other AFL awards regarded by folks as a tier above are awarded to midfielders just as much. Which brings me right back to the first point!
READ: ESPN'S 2024 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR
There are over 250 listed midfielders and mid-forwards in the league, so claiming it's a midfielders' award is a little simplistic. Instead, what kind of midfielder wins this award? And what are the attributes required to be a Brownlow Medal winner?
In recent years, Champion Data has developed a 'Premiership Standards' matrix which provides an indicator for all teams on how they are tracking in a given season, in comparison to the 10 most recent premiers. There are 32 key metrics it takes into consideration, everything from scoring to defence, territory to midfield prowess. They are the areas which are viewed as critical to flag success.
With the help of Champion Data, we've taken that concept and adapted it to the Brownlow Medal. We've looked at the 16 most recent winners of the award and where they ranked in key areas, which has led us to discover some staggering trends.
KEY: D - disposals, T - tackles, CP - contested possessions, UP - uncontested possessions, CL - clearances, CC - centre clearances, I50 - inside 50s, MG - metres gained, SI - score involvements
The biggest takeaway from this data is just how much value the field umpires place on contested possession. Only once in the past 16 years has a player not ranked in the top five in this area (yet even in that outlier year Dane Swan ranked 11th). Interestingly, none of them had actually been the No. 1-ranked in this category. Perhaps not a great omen for Patrick Cripps, who led the league in contested possession this season.
It's also clear contested possessions is rated far higher than uncontested possession when it comes to Brownlow Medal voting. Only four of the past 16 winners have ranked in the top 10 for uncontested possession, while three of the last five haven't finished the year in the top 60!
The other areas which appear to be non-negotiables when it comes to winning the AFL's highest individual honour are disposals and clearances. Every winner since 2008 finished top 30 in disposals, more than half of them ranked in the top three. For clearances, each of the past 16 have ranked in the top 20, 15 of them in the top 10. All 16 winners also ranked top 15 for centre bounce clearances.
So, how does this season's crop of favourites stack up to the Brownlow Standards?
There are three boxes each of the past 16 winners all check. Firstly, they all finished the year ranking top five in at least one of contested possession, clearance, or centre clearance. Here's who filled those spots in 2024:
That gives us eight potential winners: Patrick Cripps, Tom Green, Nick Daicos, Matt Rowell, Caleb Serong, Lachie Neale, Luke Davies-Uniacke, and Marcus Bontempelli.
Now the second non-negotiable. Every winner since 2008 has ranked top 10 in at least three of these nine main statistical areas and top three in at least one of them.
We can now remove Neale and Davies-Uniacke. Finally, in order to be Brownlow eligible, you must rank in the top 30 for total disposals, which makes Rowell ineligible.
So there you have it. If history is any indicator, the 2024 Brownlow Medal will be won by one (or a combination of) Cripps, Green, Daicos, Bontempelli, and Serong. For what it's worth, ESPN's predictor has Cripps (34 votes) winning ahead of Daicos (32.5 votes) and Neale (29 votes).