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The difference two years make: Cats, Lions tread different paths since last prelim meeting

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Rocket: Chris Scott has more armoury than Fagan, Lions (2:55)

Rodney Eade and Rohan Connolly are both tipping Geelong to beat Brisbane this week, and it might all come down to the nous in the coaches' box. (2:55)

Time moves fast in AFL football these days. How fast? Enough that two teams which met on this same big occasion just two years ago are already both very different entities.

In fact, Geelong and Brisbane's preliminary final clash late on Saturday afternoon at the MCG will be the third time in five seasons they've met for the right to play in a Grand Final. But so much change have both these teams undergone there's not enough familiarity to breed any sort of contempt.

Which makes the ascendance of Chris Scott and Chris Fagan's teams to this stage of the season again both a triumph of coaching and a tribute to the quality of list management and development, whilst in different circumstances.

Geelong will go into Saturday's game with no fewer than eight different players to the line-up which took on Brisbane on September 16th 2022. In is Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Dempsey, Ollie Henry, Lawson Humphires, Shaun Mannagh, Oisin Mullin and Shannon Neale.

Missing are the retired Joel Selwood and Isaac Smith, and five on the comeback trail from injury, Tom Hawkins, Cam Guthrie, Sam De Koning, Gary Rohan and Mark O'Connor.

For Brisbane, there's seven changes to the side which was thrashed by 71 points in that 2022 preliminary final. Out are Keidean Coleman, Darcy Gardiner, Rhys Mathieson, Lincoln McCarthy, Dan McStay, Daniel Rich and Deven Robertson. And into the line-up are Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley, Jaspa Fletcher, Ryan Lester, Kai Lohmann, Conor McKenna and Logan Morris.

What's particularly interesting about these two case studies in the pace of football change, though, is the different driving forces behind each example.

Geelong's list of changes reflects just how quickly the Cats have regenerated, though interestingly, they still remained this season the AFL's second-oldest and second-most experienced list.

Brisbane, in contrast, hasn't actively sought a different look, it has largely been forced upon the Lions primarily through injury, Coleman, McCarthy, Gardiner and recruit Tom Doedee all forced out for the season early in the piece thanks to ACL ruptures.

But both clubs have in 2024 underlined how adaptability in the modern era and in a competition closer than ever can deliver tangible results quickly, short-circuiting the once seemingly inevitable rise-and-fall law of football gravity.

Geelong around a decade ago made a conscious decision to defy the accepted maxim of "bottoming out" with spectacular success, but few moments in recent AFL history have screamed "end of era" more than the Cats' position 12 months ago, having missed out on finals with the oldest list in football history a year after sating premiership hunger.

Yet here they are on the brink of another such triumph with plenty of the same players, but crucially, with both the emphasis and drivers of their game style very different to 2022, indeed, in some ways very different even to earlier this season.

One of Geelong's biggest weaknesses in its poor mid-season run was its stoppage game, the same area which since Round 17 has become a big strength, the Cats scoring the most of any team from the clearances and conceding the fewest.

And while Patrick Dangerfield has been massive in that area, it's also the work of Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn which has been pivotal, along with ground level forwards who creep up into the midfield like Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle and Shaun Mannagh. Half of that group (Bruhn, Bowes and Mannagh) weren't part of the equation on preliminary final day two years ago.

So has the goalkicking load been more evenly spread, with six players booting more than 20 goals for the season compared to four in 2022, Ollie Henry, Shannon Neale and Ollie Dempsey the new faces in that area.

Brisbane's face has changed significantly since that 2022 prelim thumping thanks initially to free agency (Dan McStay later that year heading for Collingwood) then retirements and delistings like Daniel Rich and Rhys Mathieson (who played the Cats two years ago).

But it was serious knee injuries which sent Brisbane reeling only earlier this season, the Lions at 0-3 then 2-5 and without those four "big" knee victims Coleman, McCarthy, Gardiner and Doedee, looking set to miss finals altogether let alone contend for another Grand Final berth.

Brisbane's defence looked particularly vulnerable early this season without the run of Coleman and McKenna, who missed five weeks, but the shift of veteran Dayne Zorko to half-back by Fagan has proved inspired.

In fact, Brisbane has proved even stronger defensively than last year, the Lions' points against ranking up from fifth to second, while still proving potent enough in attack, where Lohmann has added genuine spark.

The Lions have also ended up getting an added double bonus from what might two years ago still been a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" scenario with Zorko via the excellent midfield work of Ashcroft, back from his serious knee injury, and Fletcher, who has played every game this season compared to 14 in 2023.

Brisbane has taken a similar path to this preliminary final as it trod in 2022, a home elimination final win followed by an inspiring victory on the road in a semi-final, Melbourne the favourite upended two years ago, and this time Greater Western Sydney.

Will it now get blown off the park at the penultimate hurdle by the same opponent as September 2022? It's pretty unlikely. Mainly because the Lions are made of sterner stuff these days. But also because both teams in 2024, not just Brisbane, are the same in name only.

You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.