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Three questions that will determine who wins the Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Grand Final

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Michaels on Mitchell: 'Give me a fricking break' (1:25)

The ESPN Footy Podcast crew discuss Ken Hinkley's and Jack Ginnivan's actions before and after Port Adelaide's semifinal against Hawthorn, and Sam Mitchell's following comments. (1:25)

The 2024 AFL Grand Final is set, with minor premier Sydney to do battle with last year's runner-up Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday afternoon, in the first decider without a Victorian team involved since 2006.

Here are the three questions that will decide the outcome of this game:


How does Brisbane plug its Oscar McInerney hole?

Lions coach Chris Fagan all but ruled ruck Oscar McInerney out of the Grand Final in his post-preliminary final press conference. McInerney dislocated his right shoulder twice during the game against the Cats, and was subbed out 10 minutes into the second half.

Unsurprisingly, Brisbane was forced to adjust. Joe Daniher and Josh Dunkley shared the ruck responsibilities for the remainder of the contest and the Lions played with more speed on the ball, turning a 14-point deficit into a famous 10-point win.

After McInerney went off, the Lions no longer enjoyed their clearance dominance, however, their scoreboard return from clearance rose significantly. They scored six times from 29 clearances with him in the game and four times from 14 clearances when he was out of the game.

It now begs the question, what should the Lions do in the ruck department this week? Fagan will be looking for an option that won't upset the team balance, may send the Swans a curveball, and, most importantly, work.

If McInerney cannot get up, the simple solution would be a straight swap with back up ruck Darcy Fort. The 31-year-old has played just twice this year -- in two losses -- but is the obvious replacement. Instead, is there merit in rolling with the unconventional ruck attack that prevailed over the Cats?

How many goals does Sydney generate from its star midfield trio?

Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden have been three of the standout players of season 2024, each earning All-Australian selection and featuring prominently on Brownlow Medal night. The star midfield trio have combined for a simply mind-boggling 82 goals this season, an average of 3.28 majors per game.

By contrast, the entire Brisbane midfield of Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft, and Jarrod Berry have combined for 44 goals this season.

FACT: Heeney and Warner have both had 11 20-disposal, two-goal games in 2024, the tied most in the league.

It's not just the goals kicked by these Sydney guns, but the goals they've directly set up. Heeney, Warner, and Gulden have also combined for 68 direct goal assists in 2024, meaning they've been responsible for 150 of the 355 goals the Swans have booted this year. The entire Richmond team kicked just 211 goals this season.

Sydney is 15-2 this season when the trio kick three or more goals between them, and 4-4 when they don't. Even if they play to just their average on Saturday afternoon at the MCG, combining for another three to four majors, the Swans will be extremely tough to beat.

Who can manage the emotionally-charged week better?

One of the keys to any Grand Final week, and ultimately the game itself, is being able to keep a level head and focused on the task at hand. For both Sydney and Brisbane, that will be even more challenging in 2024 than in most other years.

Of course, the Swans and Lions are the last two AFL Grand Final losers. It's the first time this has happened since the 1995 decider when Carlton faced Geelong.

Sydney was absolutely humiliated in the 2022 decider by Geelong, conceding six goals in the opening quarter and eventually losing by 81 points. For Brisbane, it was even more painful. They led Collingwood with five minutes to play in last year's Grand Final, but ultimately wound up four-point losers.

Both teams now have an opportunity -- one they may have felt might never come around -- to relinquish those demons and complete the most satisfying of footy redemption stories. But such a prized opportunity also comes with added pressure. The 'what ifs' of another failure will be playing on the players and coaches' minds all week. This game could boil down to composure and resilience.