GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Whatever happens with Aaron Rodgers the rest of this year, no one will ever know what kind of season the Green Bay Packers quarterback might have put together.
It had the makings of his third career MVP.
These are the facts: In the five games before Rodgers broke his right collarbone, he had thrown 13 touchdown passes (most in the NFL), had 1,367 passing yards (fourth in the NFL) and had the Packers off to a 4-1 start.
Rodgers was on pace for 41.6 touchdowns, 9.6 interceptions and 4,374.4 yards. In his two MVP seasons (2011 and 2014), he threw for 45 and 38 touchdowns. His interception numbers (six and five) were lower, but his yardage totals (4,643 and 4,381) were in the same ballpark. He might never match his first MVP season, especially considering he put up those totals in just 15 games while resting during the regular-season finale, but he appeared on pace for a 2014-like run.
Lest you think he couldn’t have kept it up, start at Week 5 and look back. In a 14-game stretch from late in the 2016 season (including playoffs) through the game before Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 at Minnesota, his numbers looked like this: 37 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and a 110.4 passer rating.
The week of the Vikings game, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Rodgers was “playing excellent” and was coming off his best game of the year at Dallas, where he led a last-minute, game-winning touchdown drive. He was even rewriting the narrative that he couldn't win coming from behind. Twice in a three-week span, he rallied the Packers to wins either at the end of regulation (Dallas) or in overtime (against the Bengals).
Rodgers had Jordy Nelson rolling. Nelson was leading the league with six touchdown catches through the first five weeks. He hasn’t caught one since. While Davante Adams has fared better than Nelson with Brett Hundley at the helm, Adams was tied for fourth in the NFL with four touchdowns through five weeks. That included his two-touchdown game at Dallas.
Even though the Packers' running game hadn’t found its groove at that point, like it has now with rookies Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, the Packers ranked 11th in total offense and sixth in passing yards.
The bigger picture was that their only loss to that point was at Atlanta in Week 2. They led the NFC North by a game and were tied for the best record in the NFC with the Eagles and Panthers.
Now they’re 7-6 and in ninth place in the NFC playoff standings. They have almost no hope of catching the Vikings (10-3) for the division and almost certainly have to win out (at the Panthers, home against the Vikings, and at Detroit) to have a decent chance at one of the two wild-card spots.
Now the Packers are in a wait-and-see mode to find out whether Rodgers will be cleared to return for Sunday’s game at Carolina. A medical decision is expected by the end of Tuesday or at the very latest before practice Wednesday.
Rodgers has been practicing for nearly two weeks, so it’s not like he will be coming in cold if he plays. But he ran the scout team last week, meaning he hasn’t had reps with the key players in nearly two months.
However, Rodgers’ history suggests he can at least come close to picking up where he left off. When he broke his left collarbone in 2013, he returned after a seven-game absence and led a last-minute victory at Chicago to get the Packers into the playoffs.
But no one will ever know what could have been for Rodgers this season.