TAMPA, Fla. -- When you think of the New Orleans Saints' offense, you think of quarterback Drew Brees' quick release and coach Sean Payton's prized chess pieces in receiver Michael Thomas, running back Alvin Kamara and gadget man Taysom Hill. With the Los Angeles Rams, you think of coach Sean McVay's jet motions and lots of yards after catch with receivers Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
But what do you think of when considering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense in its second year under Bruce Arians and with Tom Brady at quarterback and the additions of tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Antonio Brown? The Bucs have spent much of this season trying to figure out their identity, with a roster that rivals a championship fantasy squad from 2017, but with no offseason to mesh.
At times they've looked like one of, if not the best offense in the league. And other times, they've looked completely out of sync, with countless three-and-outs and receivers still struggling to get on the same page as their six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
But with four games left in the 2020 season, and the Bucs likely needing to win at least three to earn a postseason bid, including on Sunday against the 6-6 Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. ET, Fox), they need to identify what it is they do best quickly if the goal is “going to the dance,” as Arians alluded to this week.
Staying multiple, but playing to strengths
Arians doesn't seem inclined to lean heavily on any one facet of the offense. When asked about the identity of his offense this week, Arians said, “The identity is being able to do a lot of different things with a lot of different people.”
Added offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, "I don’t think you can win games consistently one way in this league."
We've seen Brady take deep shots to Mike Evans on long-developing pass plays, then go to more of a quick passing game with screen passes to Brown and Chris Godwin.
They'll use a heavy amount of pre-snap motion like they did against the New York Giants in Week 8 and Carolina Panthers in Week 10, and then a handful against the Saints in Week 9 and Chiefs in Week 12.
Scotty Miller went from being their top receiver through the first four weeks of the season -- some of that a function of injury but also due to his downfield speed -- to getting targeted just twice in the past three games.
Some would argue with the Bucs still struggling to find consistency, multiplicity is the wrong approach. It works for Payton and the Saints because so many of their core players have been together for so many years in his system.
The Bucs don't have that. They're still trying to make up for the 500 lost reps they had from no offseason with a quarterback who spent 20 years in another system. But Arians doesn't believe it impedes their progress toward consistency.
“No, because you get very predictable that way, [and] you cannot be predictable in the NFL,” Arians said. “That's a sure sign for defeat.”
If Arians insists on keeping things multiple, then by now, he and Leftwich should have a pretty good idea of where players' strengths are and make them the focus. Cameron Brate isn't the guy you want to target deep on what needs to be a game-winning drive -- but he's a solid safety net underneath -- while Evans' forte isn't the quick passing game.
The Bucs should be a run-first team
Never mind the Saints game in Week 9, when the Bucs ran the ball five times, the fewest rushing attempts in NFL history -- that game got out of hand quickly and the Bucs were down 31-0 at halftime. The coaches believe everything starts with Ronald Jones, who has quietly rushed for 820 yards this season -- fourth-most in the league. Yet the Bucs, who have 277 team carries (fourth fewest), should arguably be running more. That should absolutely be the case if teams are giving them two-deep safety looks.
“He's having a heck of a year, and when things are good, he's got 20 touches,” Arians said. “We've just got to stay in the ballgames earlier and not fall behind. That is what we try to do every week.”
Even when the Bucs were down 17-0 against the Chiefs, they remained committed to the run with Jones, and it allowed them to come within three points and kept them balanced. But they should consider mixing up when they run. The Bucs are averaging 3.90 yards per rush when running on first down (23rd in the league), but they've done it 177 times this year, 13th-most of any team. They've run up the middle 64 times this season on first down -- the most of any team in the league -- but are averaging 3.41 yards per rush on those plays, 26th in the league.
Interestingly, when the Bucs have incorporated pre-snap motion into run plays this year and run on first down, their average has shot up to 5.02 yards per carry -- seventh most in the league -- and they've scored four touchdowns that way, tied for second most in the league. So throwing on first down, running the ball on second down and incorporating pre-snap motion to get defenders out of position are all ways they can help Jones out and keep defenses on their toes.
More play-action
Early on in the season, the Bucs used more play-action and fared well. In fact, Brady went 9-for-9 on play-action passes against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4, 5-of-9 against the Green Bay Packers, and scored two touchdowns each against the Chargers, Giants and Panthers with those plays. But they had five play-action attempts against the Chiefs despite going 4-of-5 on those passes, averaging 16.6 yards on those plays and scoring a touchdown on Jones' 37-yard catch and run.
When the Bucs use play-action in 2020, Brady's completion percentage goes from 61.5% to 69%, his touchdown-to-interception ratio rises from 2.57 to 3.00 and his yards-per-attempt goes from 6.54 yards to 9.41 yards (fourth-most in the league). It also makes certain throws to certain players a lot less difficult. Gronkowski's average separation on throws without play-action is 2.82 yards. With play-action, it jumps to 4.15 yards. Gronkowski's rate of wide-openness jumps from 15.9% to 31.3%.
In terms of play-action, the Bucs are averaging 9.41 yards per pass attempt, fifth-most in the league, yet they've used it a total of 89 times this season -- 28th in the league. Without play-action, it's 5.67 yards per play.
One of the biggest challenges Arians said they've encountered is it's hard to play-action when abandoning the run.
"We understand how good we are at play-action, but it all comes down to being able to run the ball consistently, week in and week out," Leftwich said. "If you can do that week in and week out, obviously that always helps your play-action game."
Andy Reid showed it can still be done, even when the Bucs shut down Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as they utilized play-action 18 times and averaged 10.78 yards per play, while keeping Mahomes in the pocket for all but two of those plays. McVay used play-action 11 times despite the Rams only rushing for 37 yards.
What else can they do?
Brady is averaging an NFL-best 10.5 yards per attempt when targeting crossing routes this year. However, he ranks 19th in attempts in that category after ranking second in 2019, according to ESPN Statistics & Information research. They started to incorporate more of these plays against the Chiefs, and Brady went 4-of-5 on these plays for 72 yards when targeted on those routes.
The Vikings, whom the Bucs face this week, have struggled at defending deep fade routes and deep out routes this season, as have their other two remaining opponents, the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions. The Falcons have also struggled defending the post route and with play-action.
Incorporating more quick-passing concepts can also help Brady get into more of a rhythm on offense. When the ball has come out quick this year (1.5 seconds or less), Brady is completing 84.1% of his passes, although it's important to be mindful that just because Brady ran it with success in New England, that doesn't mean Bucs receivers, who have grown accustomed to longer-developing pass plays with Arians and Dirk Koetter before that, are built for it.