I got cocky trying to bet on Captain Kirk across the pond. But at least the bravado paid off with Josh Jacobs and Darnell Mooney, both of whom smashed their respective overs and bucked fantasy narratives.
Let's make more gutsy -- and winning -- calls in Week 5! Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I'm here to help you win in fantasy and at the books.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 49) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
Pick: Kyler Murray OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-125)
"Rushing QBs are a cheat code." The mantra has been burned into our brains. So much so that I think it's time for a contextual reminder. Let's use Murray as an example.
The "Hail Murray" has been absent from Kyler's 2022 start. He's barely inside the top-13 in deep ball attempts (16, QB13) and averaging a meh-worthy 239 air yards per game (QB22). But despite clearing fewer than 210 passing yards in two of four games and throwing only five TDs over four weeks, he's still the QB6 overall in fantasy.
What Kyler has lacked through the air, he has made up for on the ground. Murray is inside the top 10 in nearly every advanced rushing metric, averaging six rushing attempts (QB8) and 22.8 rushing yards (QB9) per game. A pair of goal line scampers certainly don't hurt either.
This is the way it has always been with Murray. (He has managed at least 50 rushing yards in 15 career games!) And it's not going to change versus Philly on Sunday. As Arizona fans (and Kliff Kingsbury critics) know all too well, the Cards are rarely ahead (4.5% of offensive snaps played with a lead). That leads to a lot of drop-backs. Facing the Eagles, it should also result in a juicy number of scrambles.
Philly's defense is significantly more generous on the ground than the team is via the air. The Eagles have allowed the third-most yards per perimeter carry (8.13) on the season. That aligns with a bottom-nine run defense ranking via the Loza Blocking Metric (LBM™). Given that the Cardinals are five-point underdogs and noting that Murray manages 78.2% more YPC when the team is trailing (than when the squad is ahead) the OVER feels inevitable.
On paper this looks like a tough matchup for Arizona's QB, especially since Philadelphia has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing signal-callers. That rushing floor of Murray's, though? Well that makes him special and this matchup unique. And now we have a better idea of just how much. Managers can continue to count on Kyler's legs for a top-eight finish.
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Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
Pick: Austin Ekeler UNDER 52.5 rushing yards (+104)
Betting the under on a fantasy favorite feels icky. But the books like it that way. They want investors to wager with their hearts, not their heads. That's why the under has hit in 57.8% of games this year (tied for the fifth-highest rate since 1986).
Ekeler has struggled on the ground, failing to clear 40 rushing yards over the first three weeks of 2022. His efficiency has additionally waned, as his YPC is down a full yard from last season. While he found paydirt three times last Sunday, he only recorded 60 rushing yards when facing a Texans squad that has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing RBs. That 60 yards, by the way, is just three more than his 2021 average and only 10.5 yards better than the above line.
Speaking of lines, his protection has been questionable. Austin has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 44.4% of carries (31.6% in 2021). That explains the Chargers' No. 32 run-blocking rank via the LBM. My man isn't getting much help from the bigs up front, which doesn't bode well for his rushing production at Cleveland.
The Browns have recorded the second-fewest yards to RBs on perimeter runs. Ek is an athletic dynamo, but he's going to have trouble finding space via the outside in this matchup. Shoring up the edges also helped Cleveland contain Christian McCaffrey and Najee Harris, neither of whom managed more than 3.8 YPC in contests this season.
Austin's ability as a receiver will continue to buoy his fantasy stock. He figures to reel in between 5 and 8 balls, particularly with Keenan Allen unlikely to suit up again in Week 5. He's still a top-10 play, but outside of my top four heading into the weekend.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5, 45)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans.
Pick: Alvin Kamara OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-123)
From legal woes to injuries to a last-minute scratch in London, investing in Kamara has been a journey this season ... and it's only Week 5. I can't guarantee the drama will end, but I do have a feeling that managers are in for a high this Sunday.
Per a report from Katherine Terrell, Kamara said earlier in the week that he was "healthy" and "ready to roll" versus the Seahawks. With Michael Thomas still nursing a toe injury and Jarvis Landry playing through an ankle issue, the Saints need Kamara back in action. The team is probably less than thrilled to have Andy Dalton under center for a second straight effort, but the backup's willingness to check down certainly offers Kamara a PPR-friendly boost. All of those absences and issues additionally signal a reliance on the run, which is why I'm taking the over on 60.5 rushing yards.
Through two weeks, Kamara has garnered 76% of the Saints' running back touches and 83% of the team's RB carries. He's getting looks and totes. And those rushing opportunities figure to be ample given that New Orleans is favored by 5.5 points.
Additionally, the Saints have run the ball in the first quarter more than any other team (outside of the 49ers and Bears). It's a game plan that figures to work early and often this week given the matchup. Seattle is allowing a YPC of 5.1 to opposing rushers (tied for third with the Bears, Giants and Patriots). The Seahawks have also given up over 100 rushing yards to opposing RBs in all four games this season.
Let go of last week's surprise bagel. And, instead, visualize a triple-digit day for AK.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14, 45.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Pick: Gabe Davis OVER 45.5 receiving yards, longest catch OVER 20.5 yards, TD (+190)
Can I interest you in a ladder?
Davis' 2022 production has been inversely proportional to his offseason buzz. I'm not sold on his ability to post high-end numbers on a weekly basis. But I do think he can smash in Week 5.
First of all, he's getting healthy. For the first time since spraining his ankle in Week 1, Davis put in a full practice this past Wednesday. He'll be key to the Bills' game plan with Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox all banged up. There's a chance that McKenzie clears concussion protocol in time for Sunday's contest. However, it's Knox's absence from the red area that figures to push Davis into OVER territory.
The Bills' presumptive No. 2 WR is averaging 46 receiving yards per game, having recorded 88 yards (84 air yards) in his lone healthy contest this year. Davis hauled in four balls in that early September effort. He has managed nine career games with a similar catch volume of at least four receptions ... and has gone over 70 yards in six of them (over 40 yards in all but one).
Additionally, every one of Davis' targets have come when he was lined up out wide. That's especially noteworthy considering that Steelers have allowed five TDs on 36 perimeter completions (and two TDs on 58 completions elsewhere). Pittsburgh's secondary figures to remain in flux with Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) also ruled out. As a result, Davis should see a good amount of Cameron Sutton, who's responsible for two of those five aforementioned scores.
The environs for fantasy fireworks won't always be friendly for Davis. Offensive vacancies and a soft matchup, however, should make this a boom outing for the UCF product. I expect a lot of red zone usage resulting in a top-25 finish.
Tennessee Titans (-2, 43) at Washington CommandersSunday, 1 p.m. ET, FedExField, Landover, Md.
Pick: Terry McLaurin OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-139)
A string of tough matchups have capped McLaurin's production. But his fantasy rank doesn't accurately reflect his play on the field. McLaurin is running over 42 routes per game with a total of 171 on the season (WR3). He's also the only player with three or more deep targets in every game. That number figures to go up with fellow deep threat Jahan Dotson sidelined this Sunday.
Additionally working in McLaurin's favor is a plus matchup versus the Titans. Tennessee is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and the second-most receiving yards (196 per game) to opposing wideouts. The Titans also rank second in highest deep completion percentage allowed, which works out nicely given Terry's aforementioned knack at drawing the deep ball.
Don't lose faith. McLaurin figures to post WR2 (or better) FF numbers this Sunday.
Follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF