Week 14 of the NFL season wraps up Monday night with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the New England Patriots (-1.5, 43.5) at State Farm Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity this week to wager on professional football. So which plays do our analysts like the most?
Betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, fantasy and sports betting analysts André Snellings and Eric Moody, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
New England Patriots (-1.5, 43.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at State Farm Stadium
The Patriots sit at 6-6 after two straight losses. The Cardinals, coming off a bye, are 4-8 and have lost four of their past five. Which side do you like in this game, and are you betting the total?
Schatz: This is a tough one because of the Patriots' usual difficulties against mobile quarterbacks. That makes the gap between these teams smaller than it would be otherwise. However, I still think I would take the Patriots here. New England's offense (24th in DVOA) has been bad this year, but it still has been better than Arizona's offense (29th). The Patriots' defense, of course, has been far superior, as have their special teams. I have faith in Bill Belichick to plot a defense that will fluster Kyler Murray as he looks for receivers in Kliff Kingsbury's stagnant offensive designs, even though the Patriots will undoubtedly give up a couple of big scrambles that will get the Cardinals out of third-and-longs. Patriots -1.5 it is.
Fortenbaugh: I'm laying the 1.5 with New England. For me, this matchup comes down to the head coaches, plain and simple. Belichick has a top-five defense and will be well prepared for a showdown with Kliff Kingsbury, who in four years on the job has demonstrated that he shouldn't have said job. The Cardinals are a train wreck of an organization, and every camera shot of their sideline seems to show a roster that has checked out on its head coach. Further, Kingsbury has never been able to get the job done at home, going 3-9 ATS over the past 12 games in his own building. A Patriots bet is a bet on a team that will show up prepared, at the very least. You can't say the same about the Cardinals.
Snellings: I'll take the Cardinals +1.5. Just before their bye, the Cardinals finally got all of their main skill players (DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, James Conner and Murray) on the field together at the same time. With the bye behind them, there's time for all of them to actually be fairly healthy with some reps together under their belts. I expect the Cardinals to play well, even against a tough Patriots defense, and pull out the win at home.
Murray has had an up-and-down season, particularly in the passing game, but he is always a threat with his legs. The Patriots are 0-3 against the likes of Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Josh Allen. Are you playing Murray's passing (237.5 yards) or rushing props (36.5) on Monday?
Schatz: Our fantasy projections at Football Outsiders have these props for Murray pretty much dead on. We even have Murray projected with exactly 1.5 passing touchdowns. If you feel you have to play one of these, I would go with over 36.5 rushing yards given the Patriots' poor history facing mobile quarterbacks.
Snellings: I'm going Murray over both 237.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards. As I mentioned above, the Cardinals' offense with all of their skill players together should be much more potent. On the rushing side, Murray has gone over this number in four of his past six games, and he also had at least 30 yards rushing in the other two contests. Against a Patriots defense that doesn't love rushing quarterbacks, he has a good chance to go over again.
Marks: Murray over 36.5 rushing yards. As I mentioned earlier in the column, Murray is horrible under pressure (42% completion percentage, 0 TDs, 6 INTs, and only 3.7 yards per attempt this season). He is going to have to use his legs to generate any offense against the Pats. New England has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season (Lamar Jackson 107 rush yards and Justin Fields 82 rushing yards).
Is there anything else you like or are playing in this matchup?
Schatz: The Patriots rank seventh in run defense DVOA and their susceptibility to mobile quarterbacks suggests that Murray will be keeping the ball on zone reads. Combine that with the expectation that the Cardinals will not be running out the clock with a lead (either the Patriots will be ahead, or the game will be very close) and I would go under 62.5 rushing yards (-127) for Conner.
Moody: I'm also going with Conner under 62.5 rushing yards. The Patriots' defense ranks fourth in run-stop win rate over the past three games. Over that time period, New England's defense has allowed only 82.7 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per attempt. With the Cardinals' offensive line also dealing with injuries, this doesn't bode well for Conner in this game. Over the past three games, Conner has handled 22.6 touches per game, which may not be sustainable in the long term. Plus, coming out of the bye, Keaontay Ingram might become more involved in Arizona's backfield.
Walder: I'll take Hunter Henry under 30.5 receiving yards (-104). It's a bit of a blind play off my receiving yards model, which puts Henry at just 21.7 receiving yards on average in this game which, if correct, would make the under a strong value. The key driving force is the 11% target share that Henry commands. Plus, he has gone over 30.5 receiving yards in only four of his 12 games this season.
Marks: I'll take the first half under 21.5. The Cards are 1-6 at home and have zero plays of 50 yards or more this season. Rondale Moore is out and DeAndre Hopkins has yet to score a touchdown against the Pats in seven career games. Kyler Murray struggles against pressure (12.8 QB rating) and will have Matt Judon (13 sacks) in his face all night. The Pats offense is anemic this season -- I guess that is what Bill Belichick deserves when he hires a defensive coordinator as his play-caller. New England has 0 red zone TDs (0-7) since week 9. Both these teams start slow and actually play better offensively off script.