The futures market can be a fickle one, but there might be an edge gained when evaluating trends when it comes to how Super Bowl champions are viewed by sportsbooks in the regular season. Did you know that the 2012 Ravens were the last team with a sub-.500 ATS record through 14 games to win a Super Bowl? That may not be overly surprising, but it is concerning for three of the four teams with at least 11 wins this season (the Vikings are 6-7-1 ATS, the Bills are 5-7-2 and the Chiefs are 5-9).
Let's keep digging. "Defense wins championships" is a popular tag line, and it might be accurate... at least compared to expectations. Seven of the past nine Super Bowl champions have finished the regular season with a net negative expected point total. That is, their games saw fewer points scored than sportsbooks projected. This is tough news for Minnesota and Dallas fans (both are top-5 in most points above expectation thus far), but San Francisco and Tampa Bay fans (both bottom-5) are very much loving this trend. Before you invest further in the NFL, be it in the futures market or in Week 16, make sure you are aware of these league-wide and team-specific trends:
Thursday 8:15 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1, 38.5)
Jaguars ATS: 6-8
O/U: 8-6
What we know about the Jaguars: Jacksonville might be the most predictable road team in the NFL: 2-5 ATS and overs are 6-1.
Jets ATS: 8-6
O/U: 5-9
What we know about the Jets: The Jets have lost four straight games played on Thursday, both outright and ATS. Overs have come through in five of their past six Thursday games.
Saturday 1:00 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 37)
Falcons ATS: 8-6
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Falcons: Under tickets have cashed in three straight (and five of six) Falcons games.
Ravens ATS: 5-7-2
O/U: 4-10
What we know about the Ravens: The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS over their past five games after a 4-4-1 start.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 41) at Chicago Bears
Bills ATS: 5-7-2
O/U: 4-10
What we know about the Bills: When this game kicks off, it will have been 362 days since the last time a Bills regular season road game went over the total.
Bears ATS: 5-8-1
O/U: 9-5
What we know about the Bears: Last week was the first time in the month that the Bears covered a spread. It was also the first time in a month that they saw a game go under the total.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 39.5) at New England Patriots
Bengals ATS: 11-3
O/U: 5-8-1
What we know about the Bengals: The Bengals are tied with the Cowboys and Lions for the highest regular season cover rate since the beginning of last season (21-10, 67.8%).
Patriots ATS: 7-6-1
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Patriots: Unders are 5-2 in New England's past seven games and have cashed in each of their past three home games.
Detroit Lions (-2.5, 44.5) at Carolina Panthers
Lions ATS: 10-4
O/U: 9-5
What we know about the Lions: Week 8 was the last time the Lions failed to cover a spread (overs are 4-2 in their past six games).
Panthers ATS: 7-7
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Panthers: The Panthers have covered each of the past four games that have gone under the total.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7, 38)
Texans ATS: 6-7-1
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Texans: The Texans may only have one road win this season, but they are 3-3-1 ATS when away from home, including an easy cover in Week 14 at Dallas (4-point loss as a 17-point underdog).
Titans ATS: 8-5-1
O/U: 5-9
What we know about the Titans: Unders are 11-4 in Titan home games since the beginning of last season
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3, 32.5)
Saints ATS: 5-9
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Saints: Point total projections for Saint road games haven't been close. In five of their six road games this season, the total has been more than seven points off (unders are 4-2 when New Orleans plays on the road this season).
Browns ATS: 7-6-1
O/U: 7-6-1
What we know about the Browns: The Browns have covered three of their past four and under tickets have cashed in all four of those games.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47.5)
Giants ATS: 10-4
O/U: 5-9
What we know about the Giants: Over the past month, unders are 2-0 when the Giants play the Commanders and 0-3 when they play someone else.
Vikings ATS: 6-7-1
O/U: 9-5
What we know about the Vikings: Minnesota's first two games this season went under the total, but nine of 12 since, including their past four, have gone over the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 49)
Seahawks ATS: 6-8
O/U: 8-6
What we know about the Seahawks: The Seahawks haven't covered a game since Week 9, but three of those five ATS losses has seen the final point difference be within five points of the closing spread.
Chiefs ATS: 5-9
O/U: 7-7
What we know about the Chiefs: They are 4-1 outright over their past five games but just 1-4 ATS over that stretch.
Saturday 4:05 p.m.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 39.5)
Commanders ATS: 7-6-1
O/U: 4-10
What we know about the Commanders: Washington hasn't just covered consecutive road games when they are an underdog, they've won them both outright.
49ers ATS: 9-5
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the 49ers: The 49ers are 6-1 ATS since getting Christian McCaffrey fully acclimated in this offense following the trade with the Panthers.
Saturday 4:25 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 46)
Eagles ATS: 8-6
O/U: 9-5
What we know about the Eagles: The Birds have covered three of four divisional games this season (1-4-1 last season). Be aware of the injury report, but they've exceeded expectations in this spot thus far.
Cowboys ATS: 8-6
O/U: 8-6
What we know about the Cowboys: Four straight Dallas home games have gone over the total, this coming after their first four home games went under.
Saturday 8:15 p.m.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers
Raiders ATS: 7-7
O/U: 7-6-1
What we know about the Raiders: The Raiders have seen four of their past five road games go under the total (1-3 ATS in those four unders).
Steelers ATS: 7-6-1
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Steelers: From 2010-20, the Steelers finished under .500 ATS at home just once. They did it last season and are in danger of making it consecutive years (2-3-1 ATS).
Sunday 1:00 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Packers ATS: 6-8
O/U: 7-7
What we know about the Packers: The Packers wrapped up Week 15 on MNF, putting them on short rest. Not ideal. Green Bay has won three straight outright on short rest in December, but they've dropped four straight ATS, with under tickets cashing in all four games.
Dolphins ATS: 7-7
O/U: 7-7
What we know about the Dolphins: As much attention as Miami on the road gets, unders are 5-1 when the Dolphins play at home.
Sunday 4:30 p.m.
Denver Broncos (-1.5, 35.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Broncos ATS: 6-8
O/U: 3-11
What we know about the Broncos: Unders are 6-1 when Denver plays on the road this season and in four of those six unders, the game has finished more than 10 points below the projected line.
Rams ATS: 4-9-1
O/U: 5-9
What we know about the Rams: After failing to cover five of their first six home games, the Rams covered consecutive games in front of their home fans in Week 13 (Seahawks) and Week 14 (Raiders).
Sunday 8:20 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 41) at Arizona Cardinals
Buccaneers ATS: 3-10-1
O/U: 4-10
What we know about the Buccaneers: The next time the Bucs score over 20 points on the road will be the first this season and, as a result, they own a -9.2 point average cover margin away from home.
Cardinals ATS: 6-8
O/U: 8-5-1
What we know about the Cardinals: The Cards are 1-3 ATS over their past four home games and all three of those ATS losses say the opponent cover by at least 12 points.
Monday 8:15 p.m.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 47) at Indianapolis Colts
Chargers ATS: 8-5-1
O/U: 6-8
What we know about the Chargers: The Bolts have failed to cover consecutive road games after a perfect 5-0 ATS start away from home. All seven of those games have finished within five points of the spread, so get ready for a sweat!
Colts ATS: 6-8
O/U: 5-9
What we know about the Colts: Unders are 4-1 in the past five times Indy has played a December game on extended rest.