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          NFL Week 5 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more

          Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images
          • Seth Walder, ESPN AnalyticsOct 8, 2023, 12:00 PM

          If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.

          If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

          Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

          QB interceptions

          Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions (-115)

          Even though Jones' very high 3.5% interception rate this season will certainly come down (it was a league-low 0.9% last year), the reality is that the Giants probably will fall behind against the potent Dolphins offense and will need Jones to put the ball in the air. That's when a pick is likely to come. I make the fair price -133.

          Passing attempts

          Russell Wilson over 29.5 pass attempts (-130)

          The Broncos have had the eighth-highest designed pass rate in the NFL so far. Part of that is situation, but they aren't run-heavy: even if we look only when win probability is between 15% and 85%, they are 16th in designed pass rate. The Broncos are just narrow favorites, so we don't really have game-script issues to worry about. Ultimately the model is way higher here, projecting 33.5 attempts.

          See also: Kirk Cousins under 39.5 pass attempts (-115)

          D/ST anytime touchdowns

          Baltimore Ravens D/ST anytime touchdown (+850 at FanDuel)

          The model makes the fair price +687, but I think there's two pieces of information outside its purview that works in this bet's favor. First: Kenny Pickett has had three dropped interceptions this season, the second most in the NFL. That's on top of his four actual interceptions. Second: The Ravens are tied with the Jets for the best defensive open score so far this season. I think this Baltimore defense has a great chance to make life really tough on Pickett. Note this bet is defense only.

          See also:

          Sacks

          Danielle Hunter 0.25 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)

          Here is a wild stat: The league average sack rate for quarterbacks this season is 6.8%. Patrick Mahomes' sack rate when he's pressured is just 4.8%. He's a magician at avoiding sacks, and that makes Hunter's under a steal at this price. I make the fair line -198.

          Josh Allen under 0.25 sacks (-110 at DraftKings)

          There will be no Josh Allen-on-Josh Allen incident this weekend. The Jaguars' Josh Allen is off to a blazing start to the season with six sacks in four games, including three last week. But the Bills have a pretty good offensive line (No. 8-ranked pass-block win rate), can run the ball and are favorites, so that should limit the third-and-long prime sack opportunities.

          See also:

          Tackles + assists

          Jevon Holland under 7.5 tackles + assists (-130 at DraftKings)

          I'm doubling down on this bet after winning it last week. Holland started the season with huge tackle numbers (14 in Week 1, 11 in Week 2) but my model is looking at a combination of this year and last year to make its predictions, and it's way lower than the line: It projects just 5.7 tackles for Holland. It doesn't hurt that Daniel Jones throws so short on average, too.

          See also:

          Futures

          Will Anderson Jr. to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+850)

          Jalen Carter is an even-money favorite right now, but as well as he has played I'm not buying that price for someone who has played less than half the defensive snaps. Anderson plays more and plays edge, which is where the sacks -- that catch the voters' eyes -- are. Anderson hasn't gotten as much attention, but he will soon: He ranks third in pass-rush win rate at edge this season. The sacks will come.

          Results

          Last week

          Interceptions: 1-2 (-0.6 units)
          Pass attempts: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
          D/ST touchdowns: 0-2 (-2 units)
          Teasers: 1-0 (+0.8 units)
          Sacks: 6-3 (+2.1 units)
          Tackles: 4-1 (+2.7 units)
          Overall: 12-10 (+1.0 units)

          2023 season

          Interceptions: 4-9 (-3.6 units)
          Pass attempts: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
          D/ST touchdowns: 1-9 (-2.0 units)
          Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
          Sacks: 23-16-1 (+3.9 units)
          Tackles: 15-6 (+7.7 units)
          Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
          Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
          Overall: 45-48-1 (+0.4 units)