The No. 11 USC Trojans have their first Big Ten matchup of the season when they head to Ann Arbor to face the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines in the Big House on Saturday. The Trojans (2-0) are off to a hot start, after already notching a ranked win this season over the No. 16 LSU Tigers in their season opener.
Meanwhile, things have been tougher for the defending champion Wolverines. Michigan suffered a blowout defeat at the hands of the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in Week 2 and quarterback Davis Warren struggled in a Week 3 victory over Arkansas State last week, throwing three interceptions. The performance of Warren prompted head coach Sherrone Moore to make a switch at QB and start dual-threat Alex Orji.
Can Orji spark the Michigan offense and help them pull off an upset as 5-point underdogs?
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Spread: USC (-5)
Moneyline: USC (-210), Michigan (+175)
Over/Under: 43.5
First-half spread: USC -3.5, Michigan +3.5
First-half moneyline: USC (-180), Michigan (+140)
Pamela Maldonado's pick of the game: Michigan (+5)
The USC Trojans have had the luxury of playing either at home or on neutral fields so far this season. This game marks USC's first true road test in a hostile Big Ten environment. Michigan's "Big House" is one of the toughest venues in college football. While the Wolverines' offense has been somewhat sluggish, a change at quarterback could provide the spark the team needs. With Alex Orji named as the new starter, Michigan is likely to lean heavily on their run game. Orji has demonstrated the ability to break off large gains on both designed running plays and when plays break down. In just ten rushing attempts, Orji has gained 10-plus yards on four occasions. His dual-threat ability could allow for more diverse play-calling and potentially improve Michigan's offensive performance, which has been underwhelming in the early weeks of the season.
Adding to this is the surge of running back Kalel Mullings, solidifying Michigan's ground game. While Donovan Edwards was expected to be the workhorse, Mullings has emerged as Michigan's top running back, with 15 carries in two of the three games to start the season. Edwards remains the home run hitter, but Mullings is the one who will wear down the defense. This ball-control offense could help keep USC's high-powered offense off the field and limit scoring opportunities.
USC still has concerns with their rushing defense. In the season opener against LSU, the Trojans allowed 4.5 yards per carry, indicating room for improvement in stopping the run. They currently rank 27th in rushing yards allowed, up from 117th last year, but sits 82nd in rush defense grade by PFF. This tells me that while USC's raw statistics for rushing yards look good, PFF's more detailed analysis suggests that their run defense may not be as strong as the yardage ranking indicates.
Let's see the Trojans maintain their performance for a full 60 minutes against Michigan's relentless run game. Take Michigan as the underdog at home.
Betting trends
This is the first time Michigan is a home underdog twice in one season since 2010. It's the first time since the 1978 FBS/FCS split that Michigan has been a home underdog as a ranked team twice in the same season
Michigan is 5-1 ATS against ranked teams since the start of last season, tied for second-best over span.
Michigan is an underdog for the second time in their past three games. In the 32 games prior, the were only an underdog twice.
USC is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.
USC is 1-7 ATS in their past eight games as a road favorite against a ranked opponent.
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info.
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