Betting tips for 'Thursday Night Football': 49ers at Seahawks

ESPN

Oct 10, 2024, 02:00 PM

This week's NFL action kicks off with the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Seattle Seahawks on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

Despite their 2-3 start, the 49ers remain the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West (-115) ahead of the Seahawks (+225), who sit atop the division at 3-2.

San Francisco has the best of odds of any NFC team to win the Super Bowl (+750), tied for second overall with the Baltimore Ravens and trailing only the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs (+450). The Seahawks are 40-1.

The line for Thursday's matchup has remained steady at 49ers -3.5, but the total has been bet from 46.5 at opening on ESPN BET to 49.5. ESPN's Football Power Index likes the 49ers by 4.6, with a 61.9% to win outright.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: 49ers -3.5
Money line: 49ers (-185), Seahawks (+155)
Over/Under: 49.5

First-half spread: 49ers -2.5 (-120), Seahawks +2.5 (-110)
49ers total points: 26.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Seahawks total points: 22.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

The props

Passing

Brock Purdy total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Purdy total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Geno Smith total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Smith total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

Rushing

Jordan Mason total rushing yards: 79.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Kenneth Walker III total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Zach Charbonnet total rushing yards: 14.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Receiving

Brandon Aiyuk total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Deebo Samuel Sr. total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
DK Metcalf total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
George Kittle total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Tyler Lockett total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Jauan Jennings total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Noah Fant total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Walker total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Anita Marks' pick

49ers -3 (-135 after buying half-point)

The 49ers have won five straight games overall against the Seahawks and are 4-0 against them (including playoffs) with Brock Purdy under center. Seattle raced to a 3-0 record to begin the season, facing the likes of quarterbacks Bo Nix (Denver), Jacoby Brissett (New England), Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle (Miami). The Seahawks won't have that luxury against Purdy. Losers of two straight, Seattle will be playing its third game in 11 days and is on a short week after a physical game against the Giants. Not to mention defensive injuries and turnover and penalty issues. The 49ers roll here.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info

Seattle is 1-4 ATS this season, tied for worst in the NFL. Overs are 4-1 in Seahawks games.
The 49ers have won five straight meetings (including playoffs), going 4-1 ATS. The Seahawks are 18-9 ATS in the last 27 meetings (including playoffs).
The Seahawks are 17-6 ATS as home underdogs since 2011, including 4-2 ATS in Geno Smith starts. Smith is 9-4 ATS in prime-time games (3-10 outright).
Over the last five seasons, teams coming off a loss as at least 7-point favorites are 37-25 ATS in their next games (.597), including 4-1 ATS this year and 13-6 ATS over the last two seasons. The 49ers lost as touchdown favorites at home last Sunday to the Cardinals.
Brock Purdy has been favored in all 26 regular-season starts entering this week, the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. He is 7-1 ATS when laying less than four points.
Home underdogs in Thursday games are 10-16 ATS since 2020.