On the eve of the Australian Grand Prix, ESPN takes a look at the areas which could make or break the season of each of Formula One's ten teams.
Mercedes
Dominance is nothing new in Formula One. In the sport's recent history, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes have all enjoyed extended periods at the top, but there's no ignoring the fact that all good things inevitably come to an end. This year the challenges facing Mercedes are far greater than at any point over the past three years and they could prove big enough to topple the team's hegemony.
It's been a turbulent winter at the team's Brackley base. Reigning world champion Nico Rosberg made his shock retirement in December before technical boss Paddy Lowe left for Williams in January. Combined, the two events represent the biggest shake up in the team's core structure since Ross Brawn departed at the end of 2013, but back then Mercedes was riding on a wave of so much forward momentum that it couldn't help but win the following year. It might not be so simple this season.
Rosberg's announcement was genuinely unexpected within the team and left the management with a tricky decision to make over Christmas. The hole left by the world champion should not be underestimated. He not only delivered consistently on the track, but also contributed considerably to the development of the car away from it and from an engineering point of view he had been a key player in Mercedes' success. His replacement, Valtteri Bottas, is a very capable racing driver, but fitting in seamlessly will not be easy -- especially in the limited time frame he's had available to him.
A new set of regulations for 2017 also means Mercedes is facing a renewed threat from Ferrari and Red Bull this season. On the plus side, the German team was well prepared for Lowe's departure (and arguably contributed to it) by poaching James Allison from Ferrari when he left Maranello last summer. Some would argue that a fresh approach is exactly what the triple world champions need to avoid complacency, but the switch from one technical boss to another is unlikely to pass without at least some teething problems. Although the look of the cars have changed dramatically over the winter, the general philosophy of car design has not and consistency between 2016 and 2017 will count for a lot when understanding how to get the most from the chassis-power unit package. Mercedes still has consistency in the likes of Aldo Costa, Geoff Willis and Mark Ellis, but Allison will have to be careful not to destabilise the ship. LE
Red Bull
For the past three years, Red Bull's biggest challenge has been its power unit. When it wasn't complaining about the lack of power from its Renault V6 turbo, it was looking for a new manufacturer to partner up with, but for the first time in the brave new hybrid era Red Bull finally seems content with the performance targets promised by Viry-Chatillon. Sure, there were some reliability issues in testing, but they are expected to be ironed out in time for Melbourne and that should help the RB13 close the gap to Mercedes and the newly-resurgent Ferrari.
With the promise of a competitive package this season, the whole dynamic at Red Bull is likely to shift. From a team positioning itself to pick up the pieces when Mercedes had problems last year, it is now hoping to challenge for wins outright. That will ratchet up the competition between its two drivers Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen, and balancing two of the most ambitious and talented drivers on the grid is likely to be an even bigger challenge than ever before for Red Bull.
The team has past experience in dealing with warring teammates, but ultimately it was unable to satisfy both Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber during its last period of title-winning competitiveness. With Ricciardo and Verstappen the rivalry promises to be even more intense and there's no reason to believe the two drivers will be any easier to keep happy. Neither would be willing to accept the role of No.2 driver, but it's also not possible for both to be world champions. Something will eventually have to give. LE
Ferrari
The smart money says Ferrari is going to be very competitive, if not the team to beat, in Australia. The Prancing Horse left Barcelona's pre-season having showed a lot without showing much -- a hugely impressive set of quick laps throughout the second week and solid reliability, but also while clearly holding back the true potential of the SFH70. However, caution is still very much needed at this stage. Being the team to beat in March and being the team to beat in November are very different things in Formula One, something Ferrari knows all too well after failing to win a race last year despite a hugely impressive pre-season campaign.
It should also be wary of last year's performance drop-off compared to Mercedes and Red Bull, hinting that Ferrari has still not learnt how to successfully develop a car over a whole season, something the team has not done properly since 2010. Two years ago seemed to have been a turning point, as an operation revitalised by Sebastian Vettel, Maurizio Arrivabene and James Allison claimed three wins across the season.
Allison has since departed, something many thought would be a hammer blow to Ferrari's chances of delivering a championship-winning car this year. The eye-catching SFH70's development will have begun under principals laid out under Allison's guidance and, though new technical director Mattia Binotto has managed to steer the ship in the right direction and has helped to minimise the impact of that departure, pressure is now on to continue the good work through the year. The only thing more difficult in F1 than getting ahead is staying ahead.
Ferrari's staggering ability to flatter to deceive -- something it has perfected in recent years -- means it still has a lot of doubters in the paddock. This season is a great opportunity to prove the Italian team isn't always going to be its own worst enemy and hasn't forgotten what it takes to win it all in Formula One. NS
Force India
Last year's fourth place finish in the constructors' championship was a remarkable result for such a small team. Punching above one's weight should always be commended, but at some time it can quickly become exhausting. Improving on that level of performance is unrealistic for a team of Force India's resources in a year of regulation change, yet that is exactly what team boss Vijay Mallya is asking for...
Meanwhile, Williams seemed to be the midfield team to beat in testing, Renault is reawakening as a genuine factory outfit and judging by the front suspension of the STR12, Toro Rosso appears to be developing a mini Mercedes. Just finishing sixth in this year's championship is going to be a tough task -- and that's before you factor in the potential for a McLaren resurgence in the second half of the year.
If the past few seasons have taught us anything, it's that Force India should not be underestimated. But by the same token it would be unwise to expect too much from a team with such limited resources. There were some suggestions that the VJM10 was underperforming during testing and if those suspicions are backed up in the opening races, it will be incredibly difficult for the team to set things right later in the season and achieve its target of fourth or above. LE
Williams
Paddy Lowe's appointment to the role of chief technical officer on the eve of the season comes at an important time for Williams and signals the team's desire to reverse the slide of recent seasons. After an impressive 2014 where it finished the season challenging Mercedes for race wins, it has struggled to match its rivals' rate of development in the subsequent two years. Last year, especially, the team struggled to out-develop fellow Mercedes customer Force India despite having much better resources than the Silverstone team.
Former technical chief Pat Symonds, who left the team in December, said the team's rate of development compared to its rivals had been "remarkably stagnant" in 2016. It cannot afford a repeat this year, especially with F1's drastic rule changes likely to implement a frenetic development arms race throughout the season. If Williams is 'best of the rest' behind the top three in Australia, as testing suggested, it has a big job to do if it wants to stay there or better.
While a technical appointment rarely bears immediate fruit in F1 with the huge lead times involved in building and developing a car, Lowe's arrival shows how seriously Williams is treating this weakness going forward. Williams will hope some of the magic Lowe brought to Mercedes will rub off on Grove's aerodynamic department, but it will be fascinating to see how the Englishman works away from the championship-winning operation Mercedes has split so effectively between aero and engine departments at Brackley and Brixworth.
The huge focus on improving the team's rate of development this year shows why the team turned to Felipe Massa when Bottas moved to Mercedes rather than another driver familiar team, opting for a veteran who should act as the perfect foil to unpolished rookie Lance Stroll. NS
McLaren
Honda, Honda, Honda....
The most glaring 'issue' facing any team this season manifested itself in ugly and excruciating fashion over pre-season, with Honda's performance and reliability struggles creating a bleak forecast for the new campaign. The situation is so bad McLaren has since made an exploratory approach to Mercedes about rekindling its engine supply in future. Make no mistake about it, McLaren is in big trouble and is not happy about it. There can be absolutely no excuses for Honda this year and it's remarkable to see how poorly prepared they seem compared to the other three manufacturers.
But Honda's dramas in Spain masked the fact that few people were blown away by the MCL32 chassis in testing, either, so it is wrong to simply assume the team is a remedied engine away from winning a championship. McLaren has gone four years without recording a win -- two with Mercedes power, two with Honda power -- so it is hardly surprising the team deflected attention towards its engine partner throughout pre-season.
The team's competitiveness has wider long-term ramifications for McLaren, one of which Eric Boullier has already alluded to -- Fernando Alonso's future. The Spaniard is in the third and final year of the contract he signed in late 2014 fully expecting the switch from Ferrari would give him the chance to fight for a third world championship -- instead he is staring down the barrel at another shambolic season off the pace. Alonso has already given a big vote of confidence in F1's new, wider cars -- something he always said would determine whether or not he retires at the end of 2017 -- so his name is likely to dominate the 'silly season' when the summer break comes around, especially with Valtteri Bottas' one-year deal at Mercedes meaning there is no guarantee over who will partner Lewis Hamilton in 2018.
Another consideration will be the team's ongoing search for a title sponsor, something new chief executive Zak Brown hopes to secure by 2018. Another poor season will be a huge dent in his chances of achieving the sort of big name McLaren craves for its team, which has been without a one since 2013 -- a quite remarkable fact given its size and status as one of the sport's truly great teams. There is plenty riding on how quickly McLaren can climb out of its Honda-sized hole in the opening rounds. NS
Toro Rosso
Toro Rosso comes into 2017 with an obvious advantage compared to last year -- an up-to-date Renault power unit after running old Ferrari engines in 2016. Its switch back to Renault has not come without problems, as the teething problems encountered in Barcelona proved, but puts the team back on a level playing field with the rivals it expects to battle in the midfield this year. Last year's power deficit became clearer as Toro Rosso's form dropped off in the second half of the year. It's destiny will be in its own hands this year and a repeat of that downward spiral in 2017 would at least in some part be down to the development of the car.
The team should have few reasons to fear a repeat, however, assuming Renault's winter issues are rectified early in 2017. James Key and his technical team have plenty of admirers and the STR12's similarities with Mercedes' new car did not go unnoticed when the covers came off in Barcelona. As with every team, development throughout the year will be key and this time Toro Rosso cannot claim to be hampered by a huge engine deficit.
Despite a lot of talent in the cockpit and behind the scenes, Toro Rosso has failed to shake the notion it is just Red Bull's junior team during its tenure in F1. Since finishing sixth in 2008 the team has failed to kick on and move towards the front of the grid -- in the years since it has finished tenth, ninth, eighth, ninth, tenth and then seventh three times in a row. Failing to at least match its 2008 finish should be considered a failure for a team with enough talent and resources to at least be in the upper reaches of the F1 midfield. NS
Haas
'Second-season syndrome' is a phrase which has been used a lot to describe Haas' upcoming 2017 campaign, but so far fears of a difficult sophomore season seem to be unfounded. Winter was encouraging and the team is quietly confident of its ability to compete this season. Undoubtedly Haas will be a feature in the tight midfield battle which looks set to rage on through the season. The Haas-Ferrari-Dallara set-up is a sensible one for a team still making sense of the intricacies of Formula One and Haas is continually learning new ways to make those partnerships work in its favour.
After a fairytale start last year (finishing sixth in Australia and fifth in Bahrain) Haas suffered from issues which were rooted in its infancy as a team. On numerous occasions it would hit trouble during Friday practice and its weekend would enter a tail-spin. Often it seemed unable to understand issues or rectify them quickly enough. Despite its extensive Ferrari tie-up, the team did not have data from previous seasons to call on so effectively went into every race weekend blind, something which will not be the case this time around. The team can no longer use lack of experience as an excuse.
Operationally it seems to have turned a huge corner, something Romain Grosjean alluded to at the end of testing, though some obvious concern areas remain. Brakes are likely to be the Haas buzzword of the opening rounds as it continues to struggle with one of its biggest problem areas from 2016 -- a quick solution is essential if Haas wants to better its eighth-place finish from its maiden F1 campaign. NS
Renault
Renault appeared to make a good start to 2017 during testing and it would be unimaginable for the team to struggle as much this year as it did last season. A step forward, therefore, is almost guaranteed, but for a manufacturer team (with a manufacturer budget) it is also essential. The problem Renault may face is balancing expectations. It will be easy to make big gains quickly, but when it comes to restoring the French marque to its mid-2000 levels of competitiveness, Enstone is still looking at a multiple-year project.
Then there is the issue of Red Bull. The RB13 is expected to be a title challenger if Renault can deliver on the performance promises of its new power unit and that sets something of an unattainable target for the factory team. If the Red Bull is able to consistently win races it will only highlight the shortcomings of the RS17, acting as a constant reminder of the work that still remains. The key will be remaining patient while Enstone's engineers rebuild their headcount and continue to invest in the Oxfordshire factory. Yet as time passes, Renault the corporate brand will expect to see bigger and bigger returns on its substantial investment and how the team soaks up that pressure is likely to be crucial for its long-term success. LE
Sauber
Sauber's 2017 prospects look pretty bleak. Running a year-old power unit is going to be painful, especially with the big gains the top manufacturers are likely to find later in the year with no token system restricting development. This year -- the team's 25th in Formula One -- is transitional in nature, with results far less important than the work going on away from the circuit. Though one reason for opting for 2016 Ferrari power was to free up money for aerodynamics, realistically Sauber is unlikely to waste resources aggressively developing a car with such an obvious handicap. A bigger motivator was to solidify the day-to-day operation of the team to give it a good foundation for future seasons.
Despite the likelihood of a year languishing off the pace, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Last year it finally secured new owners, Longbow Finance, who can use 2017 as a springboard to better things in future seasons. The team may already be eyeing the Mercedes engine supply now going free following the collapse of Manor, though there is also speculation Sauber could become a Honda customer for 2018. Clearly Sauber has plenty of time to weigh up its options and it will hope the work it does in the next 12 months puts it in a stronger position for 2018 and beyond. NS