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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 20, 2023, 03:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

          By Derek Carty

          • If you're streaming pitchers on Tuesday, there are two primary choices for you. Jordan Montgomery is the first (63% rostered), squaring off against the hapless Nationals offense.

          • If Montgomery is already rostered in your league, you'll have an easier time finding Aaron Civale (12%) available. While his leash has been much shorter than in years past thanks to a lackluster 2022 season (at least on the surface; his xFIP was 3.62 despite a 4.92 ERA), he shouldn't need much of a leash when facing the Oakland A's on Tuesday. If Civale is somehow not available, Michael Lorenzen (8%) against the Royals is a fine enough alternative.

          • After picking up back-to-back saves on Saturday and Sunday, Jordan Hicks appears to be firmly entrenched as the Cardinals closer with Ryan Helsley injured indefinitely. After struggling early in the year, Hicks has really turned it on of late, and he certainly has the stuff and pedigree to be an elite closer. He needs to be picked up in all leagues.|

          • Tuesday brings a slew of offenses projected over five runs scored according to THE BAT X, but the top park on the slate is Great American Ball Park, where it will be nearly 80 degrees. Both the Reds and Rockies project among the top teams today, and much of their offenses should be available to you on the waiver wire. Matt McLain (26%), Spencer Steer (68%), Kevin Newman (1%), Tyler Stephenson (45%), Nick Senzel (3%), Ryan McMahon (39%), Jurickson Profar (10%), Nolan Jones (23%), Mike Moustakas (1%), Elias Diaz (43%), Randal Grichuk (4%) are all strong choices.

          • If you're hunting for speed, look no further than the Cleveland Guardians. They also project for over five runs and a pitcher in Luis Medina who is easy to get on base and steal against. Josh Naylor (67%) and Josh Bell (58%) are great choices overall, and for speed specifically, look at Amed Rosario (45%), Andres Gimenez (52%), Myles Straw (4%), Will Brennan (3%), and Bo Naylor (1%).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Bullpen usage for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Camilo Doval and the San Francisco Giants took advantage of a tired San Diego Padres bullpen, first tying the game in the ninth, then winning it in the 10th via a walk-off three-run homer from Mike Yastrzemski. Doval pitched the last frame to capture his second win, but he threw 20 pitches on top of 10 on Sunday and 16 on Friday. Throwing 30 pitches over two straight days and 46 over the past four days should signal a day of rest for the Giants closer. Fortunately, a sparkling five-inning relief stint from Keaton Winn saved the rest of San Francisco's bullpen, so Tyler Rogers, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson are all available for late-inning work.

          • David Bell might have awoken as the manager of the first-place Cincinnati Reds, but he is faced with a tough decision tonight as his closer, and only truly reliable reliever Alexis Diaz needed 21 pitches last night to capture his 19th save. He was working on two days of rest which bodes well for him coming back tonight. Earlier this month, Diaz pitched in back-to-back games after tossing 20 pitches in the first game. With the NL Central so tightly bunched, Bell will likely call Diaz's number again if the situation is warranted.

          • The Rays are home for a pair against the Baltimore Oriole before heading to Kansas City. The games against Baltimore should be close, which signals important bullpen innings being necessary. It appears Pete Fairbanks (21.8%) is again the lead closer, but Jason Adam (28.7%) should still be in the saves mix, along with compiling holds. If your daily strategy is stocking your pitchers with relievers, then spotting starters for favorable matchups, using both Fairbanks and Adam is a viable tactic.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

          Prop of the day

          Jake Bauers 0.5 total bases (-190/+160)

          PREDICTION

          THE BAT sees Bauers putting up 0.74 Total Bases for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.0% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $22.20.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Bauers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit first in the batting order Tuesday.

          • Bauers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against George Kirby Tuesday.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • Bauers has been pinch hit for 46% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

          • Yankee Stadium grades out as the No. 21 stadium in MLB for lefty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system.

          • The weather report forecasts the second-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate Tuesday, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          • The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.7-mph in this game, the fourth-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.