Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 7, 2023, 02:41 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

Monday's 12-game slate begins at 4:10 PM ET with the wraparound game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in Petco Park. The remaining 11 contests are standard evening affairs, concluding at 9:40 PM ET when the Oakland Athletics host the Texas Rangers.

The highlight of the day is the return of Eury Perez (26.2% rostered) to the Miami Marlins rotation. He last appeared in the majors on July 6. For the past month, Perez has been with Double-A Pensacola. He made two short appearances leading up to his return, hurling a combined 5 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts and just one walk. The Marlins are still in the thick of the NL wild card hunt, so they'll be balancing needing Perez to make, and advance in the playoffs without jeopardizing the 20-year-old right-hander's career. As such, don't expect many long outings, especially Monday when he takes the hill in the Great American Ballpark against the Cincinnati Reds. Perez is worth a pickup regardless of the opponent, but he'll be relying on Miami's revamped bullpen to finish off potential wins.
Dane Dunning (30.8%) checks in as the day's top streamer. Dunning's 3.14 ERA is artificially low as indicated via a 4.52 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA, but facing the Oakland Athletics lineup assuages worries Dunning is due for a comeuppance. For the season, the Athletics have been the league's second least productive offense facing right-handers, in large part due to a 25.4% strikeout rate, the third highest in MLB. Dunning isn't known for missing bats, but he has a pair of double-digit strikeout games this season, including his last time out against the Chicago White Sox where he punched out 11 in 7 2/3 innings.
Patrick Sandoval (30.1%) gets the call at home with the San Francisco Giants visiting Anaheim for an early week interleague set. The Los Angeles Angels southpaw has registered a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts, despite issuing 13 free passes in those 22 1/3 innings. However, he fanned 19 while allowing just two long balls. Despite utilizing the platoon approach, the Giants have the third lowest wOBA with a lefty on the hill, along with the sixth poorest strikeout rate.
Brayan Bello has been in a rut since coming out of the break as he's recorded a 6.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The main culprit has been homers as he's surrendered seven over those 22 stanzas. His 4.19 xFIP in that span shows just how damaging the homers have been. Bello caught a break as the Boston Red Sox opted to give him an extra day of rest, so instead of facing the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, Bello matches up with the far less dangerous Kansas City Royals lineup, sporting the sixth lowest home run rate facing right-handers in MLB.
Reds' lefthander Brandon Williamson has surrendered 12 homers in just 68 2/3 innings, all to right-handed batters. Jake Burger (8.1%) hit his first homer with the Marlins on Saturday. He and teammate Bryan De La Cruz (18.1%) are both candidates to go deep on Monday, facing Williamson in the Great American Ballpark.
The Milwaukee Brewers batters are in a favorable spot at home with Peter Lambert on the Hill for the Colorado Rockies. Rookie Sal Frelick (13.5%) and Carlos Santana (21.9%) will both enjoy the platoon edge.

Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.2	Spencer Strider	R	@PIT	99.9%	-292	8.5	62%	5.9	2.1	8.1
14.4	Gerrit Cole	R	@CWS	99.9%	-165	8	57%	6.2	2.4	7.1
12.9	Dylan Cease	R	NYY	93.4%	140	8	43%	5.8	2.1	7.0
12.8	Logan Webb	R	@LAA	98.6%	-120	8.5	54%	6.1	2.4	6.2
12.8	Ranger Suarez	L	WSH	26.9%	-225	9.5	66%	6.1	2.2	5.4
12.0	Kodai Senga	R	CHC	85.3%	-120	8.5	52%	5.6	2.1	6.4
11.5	Pablo Lopez	R	@DET	96.7%	-170	8.5	55%	5.8	2.6	6.1
11.5	Patrick Sandoval	L	SF	32.1%	100	8.5	46%	5.9	2.2	5.2
11.4	Gavin Williams	R	TOR	8.2%	105	9	57%	5.5	2.2	5.3
11.4	Freddy Peralta	R	COL	82.9%	-240	8.5	54%	5.1	2.1	6.2
10.3	Eury Perez	R	@CIN	38.2%	-135	10.5	53%	4.9	2.2	5.7
9.8	Tony Gonsolin	R	@SD	53.0%	100	9	53%	5.0	1.9	4.6
9.7	Seth Lugo	R	LAD	28.1%	-120	9	47%	5.6	2.7	5.5
9.6	Drew Smyly	L	@NYM	16.1%	100	8.5	48%	5.2	2.2	4.8
9.5	Dane Dunning	R	@OAK	42.3%	-220	8.5	56%	5.5	2.6	5.0
8.9	Ken Waldichuk	L	TEX	0.5%	180	8.5	44%	5.0	2.2	4.9
7.1	Brayan Bello	R	KC	32.8%	-195	10	55%	5.3	3.2	5.1
7.0	Joey Wentz	L	MIN	0.4%	143	8.5	45%	4.9	2.6	4.2
6.7	Brandon Williamson	L	MIA	3.2%	115	10.5	47%	4.9	2.8	4.6
6.7	Peter Lambert	R	@MIL	0.4%	196	8.5	46%	4.2	2.0	3.8
6.2	Osvaldo Bido	R	ATL	0.3%	235	8.5	38%	4.5	2.3	3.8
6.1	Hyun Jin Ryu	L	@CLE	6.6%	-125	9	43%	4.7	2.7	4.0
6.1	Trevor Williams	R	@PHI	1.9%	185	9.5	34%	4.9	2.9	4.2
5.7	Cole Ragans	L	@BOS	1.6%	162	10	45%	4.5	2.7	4.3

Bullpen usage watch for Monday

By Todd Zola

Emmanuel Clase was charged with his eighth blown save yesterday, but the Cleveland Guardians had the chance to rescue him and didn't come through. Specifically, first baseman Kole Calhoun failed to handle a pair of throws from third baseman Brayan Rocchio, either of which would have ended the game. The first was scored an infield hit, but the second was ruled an error which led to three unearned runs and a 5-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Clase did record three strikeouts among his 22 pitches, but he now has thrown 40 over the past three days. Back in April, Clase worked twice in back-to-back fashion after logging 33 and 36 pitches, so there is a small chance he is summoned for tonight's home opener with the Toronto Blue Jays. The issue is Trevor Stephan and Enyel De Los Santos also pitched Friday and Sunday while Sam Hentges threw 25 pitches yesterday. Stephan and De Los Santos needed far fewer total pitches, so they could appear, but it's best to avoid the Cleveland bullpen and look elsewhere for reliever points.
Speaking of which, with only one closer flagged for questionable availability for Monday, let's shift the focus to a couple of scenarios with teams lined up to start the week off strong, so a pickup for today's abbreviated slate can be retained for at least a couple more days. The Philadelphia Phillies open a series in Citizens Bank Park against the Washington Nationals. The home team should be favored for all three games, paving the way for Craig Kimbrel (48.1% rostered) and Seranthony Dominguez (2.4%) to garner some late-inning work. Kimbrel leads the club with 19 saves, while chipping in with six holds. Dominguez has a pair of saves, both over the past week along with 11 holds.
The Texas Rangers are also in a great spot with three road games against the Oakland Athletics on the docket. Will Smith (27.9%) paces the bullpen with 20 saves and five holds. Josh Sborz leads the club with 11 holds, with Aroldis Chapman most likely to step in if Smith needs a day off.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	8/6	P3	Rest	Strk
Emmanuel Clase	CLE	95.7%	22	40	0	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 8%) at Brandon Williamson
Avisail Garcia (MIA, RF -- 0%) at Williamson
MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 50%) at Brayan Bello
Yuli Gurriel (MIA, 1B -- 1%) at Williamson
Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B -- 30%) at Patrick Sandoval
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA, CF -- 18%) at Williamson
Seth Brown (OAK, 1B -- 3%) vs. Dane Dunning
Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B -- 43%) at Joey Wentz
Nick Fortes (MIA, C -- 0%) at Williamson
Carlos Santana (MIL, 1B -- 22%) vs. Peter Lambert

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

C.J. Cron (LAA, 1B -- 54%) vs. Logan Webb
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF -- 58%) vs. Logan Webb
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 91%) vs. Eury Perez
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 59%) at Kodai Senga
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 89%) at Ken Waldichuk
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 65%) vs. Drew Smyly
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 58%) at Ranger Suarez
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B -- 64%) vs. Tony Gonsolin
Cody Bellinger (CHC, CF -- 93%) at Kodai Senga
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF -- 94%) vs. Spencer Strider

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Miami Marlins at Brandon Williamson
Atlanta Braves at Osvaldo Bido
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Trevor Williams

Prop of the Day

Freddy Peralta O/U 17.5 pitching outs (-135/-105)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Peralta putting up 20.3 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 73.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $38.69.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

THE BAT forecasts Freddy Peralta in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall pitching abilities.
THE BAT projects Freddy Peralta to throw 113 pitches in today's matchup (most of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
The Colorado Rockies projected batting order grades out as the seventh-worst of the day in terms of overall batting ability.
Peralta's fastball velocity has risen 1.9 mph this year (93.9 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

American Family Field profiles as the No. 2 ballpark in the majors for walks, per THE BAT.
Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the fourth-lowest average fence height.