Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 8, 2023, 03:00 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

By Derek Carty

Tuesday's slate brings us a pitching slate that thins out very quickly after Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler, but we do have a couple of solid streaming options. The best choice is likely to be Wade Miley (11% rostered in ESPN leagues), who is still building up post-injury and may be limited to 75 pitches, but he faces one of the game's weakest and most strikeout-prone offenses in the Rockies away from Coors Field.
With the chance Miley's pitch restrictions prevent him from qualifying for the win, you may want to look at Yusei Kikuchi (35% rostered) if you need Ws. The strikeouts may not be there against this low-K Cleveland offense, however, so you'll need to decide what's more important to your team. JP Sears (11%) might be the best streaming options for strikeouts.
If you have Logan Gilbert (95%) or Mitch Keller (74%) on your roster, you should strongly consider benching them Tuesday. Gilbert faces an elite Padres offense and Keller gets the game's top offense in the Braves. They project for a 4.78 and a 5.35 ERA, respectively, and are likely to do more harm than good for your team.
If you're looking to pad your ratios or saves totals, consider streaming a reliever from the Rangers on Tuesday. They get a fantastic matchup against the lowly A's in Oakland with easily the best pitching weather of the day at 64 degrees. Closer Will Smith is only rostered in 28% of leagues if you want the saves, while Aroldis Chapman (20%), Grant Anderson (sub-1%) and Josh Sborz (1%) would be excellent choices for ratios.
THE BAT X projects three offenses to score over 6 runs on Tuesday, and all three also project for the most home runs: The Yankees against Touki Toussaint in the top home run park in baseball, the Marlins at Luke Weaver in the second-best home run park in baseball and the Red Sox against Brady Singer in the best non-Coors park in baseball for overall offense with the best hitting weather of the day.
In terms of players who are "probably rostered but maybe you'll get lucky," definitely use waivers for Jorge Soler (69%), Giancarlo Stanton (53%) and Josh Bell (57%). In terms of "probably available" hitters, Jarren Duran (30%), Triston Casas (42%), Adam Duvall (22%) and Bryan De La Cruz (18%) are your top options. And for guys who are "almost definitely available," we have Jesus Sanchez (1%), Harrison Bader (13%), Jon Berti (4%) and Luis Urias (5%), although anyone who cracks one of these lineups will be worthy of your consideration today.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.8	Max Scherzer	R	@OAK	99.4%	-250	8	62%	6.3	2.1	7.0
14.7	Zack Wheeler	R	WSH, Gm. 1	99.3%	-285	9	67%	6.3	2.3	6.6
12.8	Ranger Suarez	L	WSH, Gm. 2	28.7%	-210	9	62%	6.1	2.2	5.4
11.7	Julio Urias	L	@ARI	93.1%	-160	9	62%	5.5	2.2	5.2
11.7	Framber Valdez	L	@BAL	99.4%	-130	8.5	52%	6.1	2.7	6.2
11.0	Zach Eflin	R	STL	86.9%	-178	8.5	55%	5.3	2.1	5.3
11.0	Logan Gilbert	R	SD	95.6%	-145	8.5	54%	5.7	2.4	5.7
10.7	Tanner Bibee	R	TOR	41.9%	110	8	52%	5.6	2.5	5.7
10.3	Grayson Rodriguez	R	HOU	17.1%	110	8.5	48%	5.4	2.4	5.4
10.2	Touki Toussaint	R	NYY	0.9%	135	9	44%	5.1	2.0	5.2
10.2	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	MIN	77.9%	100	8	51%	5.6	2.5	5.3
10.1	Clarke Schmidt	R	@CWS	11.5%	-160	9	56%	5.3	2.3	4.9
10.0	Sonny Gray	R	@DET	86.6%	-120	8	49%	5.3	2.2	5.2
10.0	Alex Wood*	L	@LAA	2.0%	-115	8.5	59%	5.2	2.2	4.8
10.0	Miles Mikolas	R	@TB	21.9%	150	8.5	45%	5.7	2.4	4.9
9.7	Jameson Taillon	R	@NYM	17.5%	-140	9.5	55%	5.4	2.4	4.7
9.5	Lucas Giolito	R	SF	87.6%	-105	8.5	41%	5.5	2.8	6.1
9.2	Braxton Garrett	L	@CIN	28.1%	-140	10.5	56%	5.1	2.6	5.5
9.0	Wade Miley	L	COL	16.7%	-225	8.5	54%	5.0	2.3	4.6
9.0	JP Sears	L	TEX	9.2%	205	8	38%	5.3	2.4	4.8
8.9	Nick Martinez	R	@SEA	6.9%	121	8.5	46%	5.2	2.4	5.2
8.7	Josiah Gray	R	@PHI, Gm. 2	15.9%	175	9	38%	5.7	2.9	5.4
8.2	Brandon Pfaadt	R	LAD	2.4%	135	9	38%	5.4	2.9	5.0
8.2	Mitch Keller	R	ATL	72.0%	140	10	49%	5.6	3.0	5.2
7.9	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@CLE	43.2%	-130	8	48%	4.9	2.5	4.6
7.7	Carlos Carrasco	R	CHC	3.9%	118	9.5	45%	5.0	2.5	4.7
7.2	Kyle Freeland	L	@MIL	6.6%	185	8.5	46%	5.4	3.0	4.6
7.1	Yonny Chirinos	R	@PIT	2.0%	-165	10	51%	4.6	2.2	3.9
7.0	Kutter Crawford	R	KC	13.6%	-178	9.5	54%	4.7	2.7	4.7
6.6	Brady Singer	R	@BOS	59.5%	150	9.5	46%	5.4	3.4	5.3
6.0	Trevor Williams	R	@PHI, Gm. 1	1.9%	228	9	33%	4.9	2.9	4.2
5.9	Luke Weaver	R	MIA	0.6%	118	10.5	44%	5.0	3.2	4.6

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

The Los Angeles Angels remain winless since the trade deadline, losing their seventh straight Monday night. Carlos Estevez had a chance to snap the streak when he was asked to hold a 3-2 lead over the Giants, but he blew his second consecutive save opportunity when he surrendered five earned runs while recording just one out. The Angels closer entered August with a 1.88 ERA, but he almost doubled it with two meltdowns in three outings this month. For now, Estevez's job is safe, but after throwing 37 pitches over the past two days, he's ticketed for a day on the bullpen bench. Normally, Matt Moore would be suggested as the fill-in, but he has pitched four of the past five days, so he's also slated for a rest day. With Reynaldo Lopez away on bereavement, late inning duties should fall to Jose Soriano, who has collected 10 saves this season.
The Pittsburgh Pirates knocked Spencer Strider out of Monday's game in the third with a six-spot, then held on to win 7-6 with David Bednar capturing his 23rd save. It wasn't easy, as Bednar had a two-run lead but gave up a leadoff double to Michael Harris II who game around to score on a fielder's choice, but Bednar retired the formidable Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley to seal the deal. The Pirates closer has worked three of the past four days, accruing 48 pitches, which puts his availability for tonight's rematch with the Braves in jeopardy. Colin Holderman is well-rested, thus is the likely option to close if needed. Holderman has a save and 10 holds this season.
The Cincinnati Reds spoiled the return of Eury Perez for the Miami Marlins, scoring four runs off the phenom in 4 2/3 innings. The Reds held on to win 5-2, with Alexis Diaz collecting his 33rd save. Diaz walked a pair, helping run his pitch count to 22, but he was appearing with two days of rest, and usage this season indicates he'll be available tonight if needed.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	8/7	P3	Strk
Carlos Estevez	LAA	59.4%	16	37	2
David Bednar	PIT	82.6%	16	30	1
Alexis Diaz	CIN	88.1%	22	22	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Jake Cave (PHI, LF -- 0%) vs. Trevor Williams and Josiah Gray
Johan Rojas (PHI, CF -- 1%) vs. Williams and Gray
Joey Meneses (WSH, 1B -- 26%) at Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez
CJ Abrams (WSH, SS -- 28%) at Wheeler and Suarez
Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 30%) vs. Brady Singer
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 42%) vs. Singer
Jack Suwinski (PIT, LF -- 9%) vs. Yonny Chirinos
Trevor Story (BOS, 2B -- 17%) vs. Singer
Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 9%) at Luke Weaver
Dominic Smith (WSH, 1B -- 1%) at Wheeler and Suarez

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Tommy Edman (STL, 2B -- 71%) at Zach Eflin
Willson Contreras (STL, C -- 74%) at Eflin
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B -- 65%) at Logan Gilbert
Jose Abreu (HOU, 1B -- 60%) at Grayson Rodriguez
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 89%) at JP Sears
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 91%) vs. Braxton Garrett
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF -- 90%) vs. Framber Valdez
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 65%) vs. Nick Martinez
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B -- 78%) vs. Valdez
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 58%) at Zack Wheeler

The Bat X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Prop of the Day

Kutter Crawford, Red Sox: Pitching outs prop is set at 15.5 (-135/-100).

PREDICTION:

THE BAT sees Crawford putting up 15.0 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 39.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $20.48.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Vic Carapazza profiles as a pitchers' umpire and is likely to be behind the plate.
Among all parks, the second-highest fence height (on average) is at Fenway Park.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Kansas City Royals have been the fourth-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X) and are likely to hit better the rest of the season.
Fenway Park profiles as the No. 2 venue in baseball for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the second-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.
The wind projects to be blowing out to left field at 12.7 mph in this contest, the third-most favorable of the day for hitters.